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  • Syria Expected to Become Missile Exporter
  • Assad’s New Man is His Son-in-law
  • Syria Compares Israel to Nazis; Denies Holocaust

Syria Expected to Become Missile Exporter

Syria is building its arsenal with North Korean help and is expected to eventually be an exporter of missiles, the CIA said.

In a report, the CIA said Syria and Iraq may soon emerge as suppliers of missile-related technology. The CIA said that at first the two countries will offer technology and equipment related to shorter-range ballistic missiles.

“But as their domestic infrastructures and expertise develop, they will be able to offer a broader range of technologies that could include longer-range missiles and related technology,” the report said.

The report said that in addition to North Korea, China and Russia are helping their clients develop missile arsenals. The report said a main client is Iran, Syria’s chief ally.

“Despite international efforts to curtail the flow of critical technologies and equipment, Teheran continues to seek fissile material and echnology for weapons development and has set up an elaborate system of military and civilian organizations to support its effort.”

Syria Remains on Ban of U.S. Computer Exports

Syria and other nations on the State Department list of terrorist sponsors will continue to be banned from high-performance U.S. computers used in military programs.

In a review that eases restrictions, the Clinton administration said it will continue to ban advanced computer exports to Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Syria. Officials said the United States will maintain a virtual embargo on computer exports.

The changes are part of an easing of U.S. export controls that will make it easier to export advanced computers to countries in Latin America, Asia, much of Africa and the former Soviet bloc. The changes were announced on Feb. 1 as part of a six-month review.

Clinton plans to raise the licensing threshold for Tier 2 and Tier 3 countries. Tier 2 countries include Latin America, South Korea, the Association of South East Asian Nations countries, Slovenia and most of Africa. Tier 3 countries include India, Pakistan, all Middle East and North African countries, the former Soviet Union, China, Vietnam and Central Europe.

Clinton said that under proposed legislation Tier 3 nations will require congressional review periods of only one month for future computer exports. Currently, the review period is up to six months.

” I also will work with Congress to explore longer-term solutions to how we control exports of items like computers and microprocessors when they become widely available commodities,” he said.

This is the fourth Clinton’s fourth revision of U.S. export control parameters since 1993 and are designed to increase computer and technology exports. The new regulations will seek to control exports from 12,500 MTOPS for most countries.

For Middle East and former Soviet republics, exports are permitted without an individual license up to 6,500 MTOPS, and require individual licenses for military end-uses and end-users above that figure. Exports without an individual license are permitted for civil end-users between 6,500 MTOPS and 12,300 MTOPS, with exporter record keeping and reporting as directed. Individual licenses are required for all end-users above 12,300 MTOPS.

Saudis to Launch Effort to Persuade Syria on Peace

Saudi Arabia plans to launch an effort to persuade Syria to embark on the final mile to achieve a peace treaty with Israel.

Arab diplomatic sources said the kingdom has acquiesced to appeals from U.S. and European Union leaders and will discuss with Damascus Arab and Gulf aid to Syria as part of any peace treaty with Israel. The sources said Riyad has resisted making specific pledges but will likely commit to helping develop Syria’s economy.

The Saudi effort will formally begin in Riyad on Feb. 15 when Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal meets Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara. Saudi officials acknowledge that such a meeting has been scheduled and will concern the negotiations between Syria and Israel.

The meeting will be held within the framework of a Syrian- Saudi committee in which both foreign ministers will attend. Officials said the Saudis agreed to discuss their role in any Syrian peace treaty with Israel as long as the United States presses the Jewish state to acede to Syrian demands for a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, captured in the 1967 war.

Israeli-Syrian negotiations have been suspended amid a demand by Damascus for an Israeli commitment for a withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 lines. Israel first wants the negotiations to focus on security arrangements and normalization.

Last month, a delegation of American Jewish leaders visited Riyad and held talks with Saudi officials on the prospect of aiding Syria.

Arab diplomatic sources expect Syria to soon return to the negotiating table as part of a U.S. compromise. They said both U.S. and EU leaders have been urging Assad to seize the opportunity over the next few months to conclude a peace agreement.

Last week, British House of Lord member Michael Levy met in Damascus with A-Shaara and delivered a message for Assad from British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Officials said Levy’s visit was meant to provide a British role in helping revive Israeli-Syrian peace talks.

A-Shaara also discussed the stalled peace talks Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Later, A-Shaara discussed the issue with the new Japanese ambassador in Damascus.

Syria Pledges Better Times After Peace

Syria might be refusing to negotiate peace with Israel. But Syrian officials are already touting the benefits of any U.S.-arranged peace treaty.

Syrian officials are now telling their countrymen in the state media that peace with Israel will result in an expanded economy that will ease social strain. They are saying that peace will lead to more jobs and prosperity.

Currently, Syria admits to an unemployment rate of eight percent. Labor Minister Ali Khalil said this was an increase from the six percent unemployment in 1994. In previous years, he said, unemployment was as high as 8.4 percent.

Khalil said the current unemployment rate is too high for Syria. “But it will be eventually decreased with the increase in stability in the region,” he said on Feb. 2.

The minister blamed Israel for Syria’s economic woes. He said Israel has forced Syria to spend badly-needed funds on weapons.

But Khalil said after a peace treaty Syria would focus on developing infrastructure and civilian projects. He said this will increase jobs and maintain the currently low prices.

“Inflation did not eat the wages,” he said.

Khalil listed other measures Syria is considering in the wake of a peace treaty. This includes introducing new requirements for state companies to ensure they operate on a profit basis, lifting export restrictions and incentives for investment.

But Syrian officials are not promising immediate changes. They said the country’s huge public sector will not be cut because they don’t want to increase unemployment. He said about 200,000 Syrians join the labor force every year.

Syria reportedly has 500,000 foreign workers, mostly from Sri Lanka, Egypt and Somalia. About 1 million Syrians work in the Gulf and Arab diplomatic sources said another 1 million are employed in Lebanon. Syrian officials said the number in Lebanon is 225,000.

The public sector employs 25 percent of the labor force in Syria, officials said. They said this does not include Syria’s huge military.

Syria will probably not end its subsidies either, officials said. Khalil said about $2 billion of the $5.1 billion state budget is designated for subsidies of staples and basic services such as free education and medical care as well as cheap transportation.

Hundreds Have Disappeared in Latest Syrian Arrests

Opposition sources and human rights groups said hundreds of people have disappeared in the latest crackdown by Damascus against critics of Syrian peace talks with Israel.

The London-based Amnesty International has expressed concern for the safety of hundreds of political opponents arrested since Dec. 12. The group said torture and ill-treatment are systematically used against political detainees in Syria.

“The military intelligence and other branches of the Syrian security forces have made the arrests in Homs, Aleppo, Damascus and other parts of the country,” Amnesty said. “Those arrested come from political or religious groups which oppose the peace process with Israel and include large numbers of members of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brothers or Hizb al-Tahrir as well as supporters of leftist groups. They are also said to include former political detainees and people who are unaligned but who oppose the peace process.”

The group said information about the arrests is extremely difficult to obtain. Only recently have the names of a few of those arrested been made public, Amnesty said.

Human rights groups said hundreds of people are in prison in Syria for political reasons, some for many years without charge or trial. Others have been brought to trial before the Supreme State Security Court where trials fall far short of fair trial standards.

The Syrian Human Rights Committee said thousands of political detainees have vanished as authorities simply deny their existence. The committee said United Nations efforts to find them have failed.

Assad’s New Man is His Son-in-law

President Hafez Assad has found himself a new strongman meant to ensure that the aging leader’s son becomes successor.

He is Assaf Chawkat, the president’s son-in-law and head of military intelligence and the first of a new generation of Syrians meant to ensure stability in Damascus. Intelligence sources as well as some Arab diplomats said Chawkat has been groomed to watch the back of Bashar Assad as he wages the struggle to succeed his 69-year-old father.

The sources said Chawkat, 36, so far serves two purposes. First, he ensures that the junior Assad will not have any rivals within the family. Some members of the family, particularly younger brother Maher, were said to have expressed skepticism regarding Bashar’s chances to succeed his father.

“He is both a political and physical force and he is loyal to Bashar Assad,” a senior intelligence source said.

The second purpose is to prove to Syria’s Alawite elite and the Baath Party that Bashar can maintain stability under his leadership. The sources said Chawkat will be the first of several military strongmen with whom the junior Assad will form alliances. They said the 34-year-old optometrist will eventually surround himself with a coterie of hatchet man who will ensure loyalty in all military and security services.

Later this year, the president is expected to submit Bashar as a candidate for a leadership position.

Intelligence sources said the emergence of Chawkat has dampened criticism of Bashar within the Assad family. In November, Chawkat was sent to a French hospital for a bullet wound that sources said was sustained during a fight with Maher.

The sources, however, said the dispute did not diminish Chawkat’s authority. If anything, they said, the elderly Assad cracked down on dissidents within the family who opposed Chawkat or Bashar.

“Chawkat is very unimpressive, to say the least,” a U.S. intelligence source who closely follows Syria said. “But right now, he is all Assad has.”

A key role of Chawkat, the sources said, is to ensure that Bashar will be allowed to continue the grooming process. The sources said the elderly Assad is slowly but steadily preparing Bashar’s skills in both diplomacy and military.

But the process has been slow. The sources said Bashar did poorly in his meetings in November in Paris with French President Jacques Chirac and the president does not want this repeated in any visit expected in Teheran.

“Bashar is coming to Teheran as a student not as an equal,” the intelligence source. “So, for Assad, there’s no hurry. The president has other ways to inform Iran about the peace process.”

Syria, Lebanon Rejoice Over Hizbullah Attack on Israel

Syria and Lebanon have expressed satisfaction with the Jan. 31 Hizbullah attack on Israeli troops in which three soldiers were killed and raised the prospect of massive retaliation.

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud told the Beirut-based daily A-Safir on Feb. 1 that the attack was worthy of praise and was necessary to expel Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. Lahoud said Hizbullah was shedding blood to ensure the liberation of Lebanese territory.

“There is no alternative to the liberation of Lebanon even though these activities are an exception to the political game,” Lahoud said.

Other Lebanese ministers were quoted as also expressing praise for Hizbullah while raising the prospect of Israeli retaliation.

State-run Damascus radio did not directly praise the attack. But it quoted Lebanese ministers as doing so. The Syrian Al Baath daily blamed Israel for the attack and called for a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the territories captured by Israel in the 1967 war.

The newspaper said Israel is leading to repeated deteriorations in the area and said the Jewish state can not rely on force. Tishrin echoed the assertions

Syria Asks Russia for Multilateral Update

Syria has asked Russia for a briefing on the multilateral talks taking place in Moscow and boycotted by Damascus.

The London-based Al Hayat daily on Feb. 1 quoted Russian diplomats as saying that the regime of President Hafez Assad has requested that a Russian envoy be sent to Damascus to brief the Syrians on the multilateral talks. The newspaper said this marks the first break in Syria’s refusal to participate in any regional cooperation talks that involve Israel.

Russia has not objected to the Syrian request.

Representatives of 40 countries are in Moscow and on Feb 1, a steering committee met to set dates for five working groups to deal with regional economic development, environment, Palestinian refugees, water and security. The arms control committee is not expected to convene.

Syria and Lebanon are boycotting the conference. The talks are being attended by the Palestinian Authority, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia — representing the Gulf states — and Tunisia representing North Africa, Canada, Japan, Norway and Switzerland.

Four working committees were established for the continuation of talks in the coming months.Water issues will be discussed in Oman, the environment in Tunisia, refugees in Canada and economic issues in Morocco.

Syria Compares Israel to Nazis; Denies Holocaust

Syria launched a bitter media attack against Israel comparing the Jewish state to Nazi Germany.

The Syrian government daily Tishrin said on Jan. 31 Israel has committed crimes against the Arabs that were no less grave than that of the killing of six million Jews by the Nazis during World War II. Tishrin, however, questioned whether the Holocaust actually took place and said Israel has tried to stop those who doubted the Nazi extermination.

“Zionism is erasing from human memory 50 million Nazi victims and concentrating on the suffering of Jews, although historical facts prove that Zionist leaders then collaborated with the Nazis for the Jewish problem to get worse,” Tishreen editor Mohamed Kheir Wadi said. “Zionism hides these dark pages of its history, blackens them completely, and invents stories about the Holocaust and exaggerates it to astronomical levels.”

“Israel, which is presenting itself as heir to the victims of the Holocaust, committed and keeps on committing against the Arabs crimes that are uglier that the ones committed by the old Nazis,” the newspaper continued. “The Nazis, for example, did not drive out a whole nation from their homeland and did not bury people alive, which is what the Zionists did.”

The attack by the Syrian newspaper was the harshest against Israel since the two countries resumed peace negotiations in December. Over the past few weeks, however, Syrian media attacks have grown harsher as the suspension of the negotiations continued.

“Why does Israel insist on bringing up this alleged Holocaust policy?” the newspaper said. “I believe Israel and the Zionist organizations have two aims. The first is to receive more money from Germany and other Western establishments on the pretext of compensation for the Holocaust. The second aim is to invest the myth of the Holocaust and accuse anyone opposed to her Jewish lies about the Holocaust in the face of credible voices questioning it, including that of the controversial British historian David Irving.”

Holocaust denial, however, has been a familiar theme in the Syrian media. It is also repeated in the Arab and Iranian press.

Israel quickly responded to the report. Social and Diaspora Affairs Minister Michael Melchior expressed his revulsion over the article.

“It is not possible to show restraint over these unbridled statements which deny the Holocaust and compare Israel to the Nazis,” he said. “The Syrians know no bounds in anti-Israel incitement, both morally and diplomatically. This makes continued dialogue with them more difficult.”

Melchior called on Syria’s leaders to disavow the article in the government newspaper “and to change their style, which only makes peace and normalization between Israel and Syria more difficult.”

Likud parliamentarian has called for Israel to end peace talks with Syria.

Earlier, the weekly of the Syrian Arab Writers Association said Damascus will obtain the Golan Heights by force and must reject U.S. or Western aid, which will be meant to prevent Syria from restoring its military. Ali Orsan, the chairman, wrote in the association’s weekly, Al-Usbu Al Adabi that Syria would face a disaster if it recognizes the Jewish state.

The writer asked whether the agreement with Israel would prevent Syria from joining the next war against the Jewish state.

Syria, Sudan Sign Counterterrorism Accords

Syria and Sudan have signed several cooperation accords.

The two nations signed agreements to cooperate in the areas of counterterrorism, criminal investigations and drug-trafficking. Syria and Sudan are on the list of U.S. State Department sponsors of terrorism.

The memorandums were signed by Syrian Interior Minister Muhammad Harba and his Sudanese counterpart, Abdul Rahim Muhammad Hussein. In the accords, the two countries distinguish between terrorism and the struggle for national liberation.

Officials said the cooperation and exchange of experts will be conducted with Arab agreements on counterterrorism. The accords also called for coordination on bilateral and regional issues, particularly during international and security regional conferences.

For Sudan, the agreement was another achievement in its efforts to break Khartoum’s international isolation. Sudan has launched a campaign to increase its diplomatic and economic relations since the ousting of parliamentary leader Hassan Turabi, the leading of the Islamic fundamentalist movement.

Sudanese President Omar Bashir is also trying to organize a reconciliation conference with his opposition. The effort is being supported by neighboring Egypt and Libya.