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Israel has begun preparing for the prospect of a victory by Syrian President Bashar Assad over Sunni rebels.
The government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has been briefed of the likelihood of an Assad victory that would end the more than two-year revolt in Syria. They said Israeli preparations could include military reinforcements in the Golan Heights and northern Israel as well as additional aid from the United States.
“I always thought that it might be the case that at the end of the day Assad, with a very strong Iranian and Hizbullah backing, might gain the upper hand,” Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said. “And I think that this is possible and I thought that this is possible already a long time ago.”
In a briefing on June 10, Steinitz became the first senior Cabinet minister to raise the prospect of an Assad victory. Steinitz, a former finance minister regarded as close to Netanyahu, indicated that Israel did not share U.S. assessments in 2012 that Assad had been on the verge of collapse. Instead, Steinitz, regularly briefed by Israel’s intelligence community, said he envisioned massive foreign help to save the Assad regime. He said Assad’s military and security forces would capture rebel-held territory throughout Syria.
“He might not just survive, but even regain territories,” Steinitz said.
Netanyahu has warned his ministers not to discuss the prospect of Israeli intervention in Syria. They said the only Cabinet member who publicly assessed that Assad would be ousted was then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak, regarded as close to the United States, in 2012.
“There was heavy pressure by the Americans for the [Israeli] intelligence community to fall in line with U.S. assessments,” a Western diplomatic source said. “Now, the Israelis are shocked that the assessment of the Americans on Syria was totally wrong.”
In contrast, officials said, Barak’s successor, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, has urged Washington and other NATO members to move cautiously against Assad. They said the message from Netanyahu and his senior ministers was that the Sunni revolt was dominated by Al Qaida and could end up destabilizing neighboring Jordan.
“It is in his [Assad’s] interest not to provoke us so that we get involved,” Steinitz said.
