Can Israeli taxpayers plunk down enough money on Iron Domes to offset the inevitable Gaza rocket building boom that will result from continuing “quiet for quiet”?
Those interceptors were specifically cited in the publicly released information on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s plans to dramatically increase defense spending.
It won’t work.
Quiet for quiet allows our enemies in Gaza to not only produce as many missiles as they want.
“Quiet for quiet” allows the Gaza missile R&D teams to openly test fire missies towards the sea as they work on improving distance and accuracy.
A key feature of Iron Dome is that it only launches interceptors when it expects the enemy projectile to land in an urban area.
Israeli projections consistently underestimated improvements in enemy Gaza missile accuracy.
In each round of conflict we found ourselves having to launch considerably more interceptors per hundred incoming missiles than we anticipated.
Recently we began using the Iron Dome system to even intercept mortar shells.
We should be honest with ourselves.
If we want to give the Gazans more time to prepare to attack us we cannot possibly deploy enough interceptors to shield the Israeli civilian population from the consequences.
In the end most civilians will find themselves being advised that their safety is secure as long as they follow instructions to take shelter before the missiles start slamming into their neighborhood.
Don’t get me wrong. There are strategic targets that require the protection of the Iron Dome and other systems. And there’s every reason in the world to have enough systems to protect them.
But at the same time we must be honest with ourselves that kicking the can down the road with “quiet for quiet” has consequences that pouring money into interceptors simply cannot offset.