The time has come for those who favor the unilateral disengagement from Gaza to think again, because it may be that the entire issue is not worthwhile – and not for the ideological reasons that it is forbidden to uproot settlements or to give up parts of the homeland. The argument for second thoughts stems from the events of recent days, which raise fears that a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza is causing serious security damage to Israel.

The fact that a majority of the Palestinian public sees Israel’s decision to withdraw as a sign of the victory of the intifada has long been known. It is hard to argue with this. Years of a peace process and negotiations between the Palestinians and Israeli governments, including Likud governments, have not led to Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The idea of withdrawal entered the mind of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon only after suicide attacks, Qassam rockets and mortars.

Even if these attacks were not the reason why Sharon came up with the idea of disengagement, the Palestinians are certain that that is the case, and this has reinforced their belief that Israel only understands the language of terror attacks and violence. This belief will now become an absolute certainty – if Israel withdraws unilaterally under fire.

Those who are taking credit for the great victory of the withdrawal from Gaza, and with a great degree of justification, are the members of Hamas, which led the attacks and the terror campaign against Israel. The withdrawal will transfer large land assets in Gaza to the Palestinians, since Israeli settlements and security installations take up about 30 percent of the narrow, crowded Strip, in which every meter is worth a fortune. What will happen to these important and expensive assets? Who will receive them and decide what will be done with them? Hamas wants to be a partner in the division of the spoils. “We were partners in blood, and we want to be partners to the decisions,” say Hamas spokesmen.

Until recently, the leaders of Hamas were untroubled in this regard. They had an agreement with Palestinian Authority Chair Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), reached at the beginning of the year in Cairo, which included two main items: Hamas would join the cease-fire – the hudna or “calm” – and the PA would hold elections for the Palestinian parliament.

According to the results of the elections, which were supposed to take place yesterday, it will be possible to set a key to the balance of political power in the Palestinian community – and according to this key they will form a government, distribute jobs and, among other things, decide how the large land assets evacuated by Israel will be divided. In other words, which institutions and factories will be built on them, and for whose benefit: the Fatah faithful, the supporters of Hamas and others.

Hamas sees itself as having kept the agreement – having held its fire. Abu Mazen was the one who violated it. Fatah and its leadership under Abu Mazen decided to postpone the elections, without setting a new date. This means that the Palestinian government remains as it is, and that those who are currently in power – who are seen as corrupt by the Palestinian public – will do as they wish with the assets evacuated by Israel. They will not share with Hamas the fruits of the victory for which members of Hamas spilled their blood.

Hamas is by no means ready to accept this. For a brief moment, it seemed that they could reach a compromise. The leaders suggested that the handling of the Israeli withdrawal – i.e., the assets – would not be left to the hands of the Palestinian regime, but be the responsibility of a joint committee of Hamas and the PA. Abu Mazen and his people rejected this. “It would be like establishing another Palestinian government,” they said.

This is the background to the violence that has erupted in Gaza. This is one of the reasons for the renewal of the attacks. There does not seem to be a solution for this at present, and the conclusion is that the embittered and angry Hamas members in Gaza will continue and even intensify terror attacks and firing at Israeli targets.

If all the fruits of the victory in Gaza fall into the hands of various corrupt PA leaders, Hamas doesn’t mind making the Israeli withdrawal difficult, or even torpedoing it.

This piece appeared in HaAretz on July 18th, 2005

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