Jerusalem – Israel’s security officials have warned the Israeli government that the next flare-up will not be on one front alone and that Israel will fight alone.

Hezbollah intends to renew the fighting, under an Iranian umbrella, coordinated with an escalated Hamas rocket attacks from Gaza.

Syria has not given up its aim of “paying Israel back” for what happened in September 2007. “It will be hard for me to get to sleep tonight,” one of the Israeli ministers confessed after the meeting with the media. “I get the impression that only the West does not intend to shoot at us.”

According to this warning, the regime in Lebanon is on the verge of collapse.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is very close to gaining control of the country, perhaps by means of the next parliamentary election. That means that Lebanon will create an extremist Shiite stronghold on the northern border fence.

Meanwhile, even though the regime in Syria is stable, the intelligence experts say, the Syrians bear a deep grudge against Israel and do not intend to let last year’s attack on a facility in their territory pass without settling scores. Syrian missiles can now reach any point in the state of Israel, and they possess a chemical arsenal and biological weapons capability.

The Iranian drive to achieve a nuclear capability will come to fruition toward the end of the current year or the year after. Israel’s intelligence chiefs believe that the Americans will almost certainly not take military action against the Iranians, while the effectiveness of the global effort will not affect the pace of the Iranian progress.

The report envisions the reduction of U.S. influence in the Middle East over the next year.

The Israeli intelligence community has assessed that the United States will reduce both its military presence and political influence in the Middle East in 2008 and 2009. This assessment envisions the start of a reduction of U.S. military presence in Iraq over the next year as well as a reduction in operations in the Persian Gulf.

All these factors point to the possibility that within a year, or at most a year and a half, Israel will be attacked by an armed alliance of terrorism, trained and armed with rockets, with the backing of two border states, Syria and a Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon. Both will be protected by an Iranian nuclear umbrella. “

And as for the Israeli Arab community, who now number more than 1 million citizens, Israel’s intelligence officials warn that their rapid trend toward extremism continues, with the inspiration for this coming from the Israeli Arab Knesset Parliament members. The stoning of cars on the roads of northern Israel is a symptom of this disturbing trend, and the Arab home front could flare up at any moment and join forces with the external fronts.

David Bedein can be reached at Media@actcom.co.il. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008

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David Bedein
David Bedein
David Bedein is an MSW community organizer and an investigative journalist.   In 1987, Bedein established the Israel Resource News Agency at Beit Agron to accompany foreign journalists in their coverage of Israel, to balance the media lobbies established by the PLO and their allies.   Mr. Bedein has reported for news outlets such as CNN Radio, Makor Rishon, Philadelphia Inquirer, Los Angeles Times, BBC and The Jerusalem Post, For four years, Mr. Bedein acted as the Middle East correspondent for The Philadelphia Bulletin, writing 1,062 articles until the newspaper ceased operation in 2010. Bedein has covered breaking Middle East negotiations in Oslo, Ottawa, Shepherdstown, The Wye Plantation, Annapolis, Geneva, Nicosia, Washington, D.C., London, Bonn, and Vienna. Bedein has overseen investigative studies of the Palestinian Authority, the Expulsion Process from Gush Katif and Samaria, The Peres Center for Peace, Peace Now, The International Center for Economic Cooperation of Yossi Beilin, the ISM, Adalah, and the New Israel Fund.   Since 2005, Bedein has also served as Director of the Center for Near East Policy Research.   A focus of the center's investigations is The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). In that context, Bedein authored Roadblock to Peace: How the UN Perpetuates the Arab-Israeli Conflict - UNRWA Policies Reconsidered, which caps Bedein's 28 years of investigations of UNRWA. The Center for Near East Policy Research has been instrumental in reaching elected officials, decision makers and journalists, commissioning studies, reports, news stories and films. In 2009, the center began decided to produce short movies, in addition to monographs, to film every aspect of UNRWA education in a clear and cogent fashion.   The center has so far produced seven short documentary pieces n UNRWA which have received international acclaim and recognition, showing how which UNRWA promotes anti-Semitism and incitement to violence in their education'   In sum, Bedein has pioneered The UNRWA Reform Initiative, a strategy which calls for donor nations to insist on reasonable reforms of UNRWA. Bedein and his team of experts provide timely briefings to members to legislative bodies world wide, bringing the results of his investigations to donor nations, while demanding reforms based on transparency, refugee resettlement and the demand that terrorists be removed from the UNRWA schools and UNRWA payroll.   Bedein's work can be found at: www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com and www.cfnepr.com. A new site,unrwa-monitor.com, will be launched very soon.

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