Expert: ‘Iran Won’t Cause Major Damage’

Jerusalem – “The Iranians can’t do to us anything that the Israeli civilian hasn’t encountered already before,” said Maj. Gen. (res.) Professor Yitzhak Ben Yisrael yesterday. Mr. Ben Yisrael is a member of the Kadima faction of the Israeli Knesset Parliament and spoke in the wake of reports written in the United States as if Israel were planning to attack Iran by the end of 2008.

In an interview with the daily Makor Rishon-Hatzofeh yesterday, Mr. Ben Yisrael, who previously served as the director of the Defense Ministry’s Weapons And Technologies Development Program, said: “What can the Iranians do? They can shoot missiles. They have the same quantity of missiles and the same range of warheads as Saddam Hussein fired in 1991. It wasn’t pleasant, but it wasn’t a great disaster either. The second thing is that they can tell Hezbollah to shoot at us. We already went through that experience two years ago. Just that this time, I expect, the IDF won’t make the mistake it made last time when it let Hezbollah fire without hindrance. That’s why, if something happens, it can be expected to be different than what we had two years ago.” Mr. Ben Yisrael underscored that “as long as the Iranians don’t have an atomic weapon, the things that can be expected to happen, if at all, are of the type that I spoke about.”

Mr. Ben Yisrael believes that Israel’s situation has not only not worsened, but has actually improved. “If we compare it to the situation in 1991, in the meantime we have the Arrow, so that most of their missiles we’ll be able to down. That situation is better than what we had before.

“If I might quote President Shimon Peres, I heard him once at a ceremony honoring people who won the Israel Security Award saying: ‘We are a strange country. We have all kinds of capabilities but that’s a secret; we mustn’t talk about them. What can we talk about? Only our weaknesses. So all the time the picture that supposedly comes across is that we only have weaknesses and we don’t have capabilities and the public walks with its head hung low.’ I agree with him, we have more capabilities, the situation won’t be worse than in the past, if it happens at all.”

Security Expert: Iranians Are Undoubtedly Under Pressure

Mr. Ephraim Kam, a colonel in the Israeli reserves who serves as deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) said yesterday in an interview with the daily Israeli newspaper Maariv that, “In the past months, pressure has been mounting on Iran to suspend its nuclear program, from a number of directions. True, the U.N. Security Council is finding it difficult to tighten the sanctions that it has already imposed on Iran in three rounds, because Russia and China are opposing tighter sanctions, but the U.S. administration and European governments are imposing severe restrictions on the activity of Iranian companies and banks and making it difficult for Iran to receive aid from international financial institutions – and this pressure is more painful for Iran”.

Mr. Kam added that “Israel will reach a juncture of decision whether to stage a military operation against Iran when several conditions are fulfilled. Firstly, when it is clear that the diplomatic path for stopping Iran has failed and run its course. In the meantime, all countries, including Israel, prefer to exhaust the diplomatic path. Secondly, when it is clear that the US has decided not to carry out the move itself. In the meantime, the Bush administration does not rule out a military move, but the administration’s time is limited, and every month that passes reduces the chance that it will take action. Thirdly, when the buildup is completed of capabilities that will increase the chances of the success of a military operation. This means that there is still time until Iran obtains nuclear weapons, but there is not a lot of time – and it is running out. And as the conditions mentioned above are fulfilled, the Israeli government may be called upon to address one of the most difficult and complex decisions that have ever faced a government in Israel.”

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008