March 22, 2010
Cross-posted from National Review Online

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2010/03/when-obama-meets-netanyahu

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On learning that Barack Obama invited Binyamin Netanyahu to visit him on March 23, presumably to discuss such momentous topics as the timing of announcements of housing units in Jerusalem and urging him to make nice to the PLO’s Mahmoud Abbas, I can’t help imagine what I would say to the president.

Netanyahu has previously met Obama.

  1. Let’s put aside Palestinian issue – which even the past year shows has little chance of a breakthrough.

  2. Instead, better to focus on the supremely dangerous Iranian nuclear buildup.

  3. It’s too late for resolutions, agreements, or sanctions to deal with that buildup.

  4. The only decision left is whether or not to take out the nuclear infrastructure.

  5. American forces have the greatest capabilities and should undertake this operation.

  6. If they don’t, Israeli forces should do the job.

  7. That will be difficult; the IDF intelligence, planes, and payloads may not be adequate.

  8. Therefore, only Israel’s submarine-based nuclear weapons can assure operational success.

  9. No one wants that, so better the U.S. government take action.

Faced with such logic, I hope Obama would put aside the Palestinian issue, at least temporarily. (March 22, 2010)

1 COMMENT

  1. Should Israel attack Iran?
    By Dr. Matania Ginosar. 3/10

    Should Israel attack Iran? A very critical question facing Israeli leadership for years. Itzhak Rabin was very concerned that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, not Iran, would try nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. That was his main reason for getting quick, imperfect, peace with the Palestinians in 1993. He believed that the Palestinians do not represent existential danger to Israel while Iraq would.

    Seventeen years later Netanyahu is facing the Iranians nuclear threat.
    Some may say, wait, they may not do anything. When you deal with national security you do not ask if the enemy may want to destroy you. It is not their feelings and intentions that you evaluate. You have to evaluate their ability to do it.

    You can not know their intentions and internal politics and who controls the bombs. They can use it at their will. If they have the ability to inflict severe damage to your country, you do your best to destroy that ability! And that is the key criteria to look at. This is not a game. Destruction is on the line.
    Remember the great advice of old: When some one comes to kill you, kill them first!

    All my life I have hated war and all the suffering that innocents face. However, if I was in Netanyahu’s position I would plan to attack at the right moment, and soon. There is no alternative.
    See the summary below that points to the fact that they are also working on a nuclear MISSILE. It is only a matter of time, and a short time it is.

    Four and a half years a go I wrote my friends that the only way to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is by united, massive economic pressure by all critical nations. I also wrote that it is not likely. Every nation in the Security Council has its own vital interests. And China and Russia do not want to cooperate with the US.
    However, I did not write you then that I believed that there is no alternative to attacking Iran. At that time most people would not have grasped this reality, and I did not want you to think I am trigger happy. I am not.

    But it is important not to be sentimental, and naïve when the nation’s security is at stake and not play make belief. In addition, the US has been weak and attempted only gingerly to build global pressure on Iran. The stupidity of playing the game of “let’s talk” with Iran was so childish. Iran just promised and retreated, again and again and the US and the Europeans let them play with them.

    Neither China nor Russia is worried about attack by Iran. Both of these countries will retaliate so severely, that Iran would not dare. They are not led by idealistic thinkers, or over concerned leadership. Due to China and Russia large sizes and large populations the damage to their nations would not be devastating. Israel is in a different category completely. One nuclear bomb can destroy any of its three large cities, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or Haifa, thus causing another Holocaust and crippling Israel as a nation. With more than one bomb Israel is wiped out. Period.

    With this odds what can a careful leader do? No alternative to bombing Iran’s nuclear installations.

    Now, to the some counter points:
    1. Only massive, continuous attack can destroy Iran’s nuclear capability and only the US can do it. But it would not.
    2. Even a very powerful attack by Israel will not destroy all their installations and they may be able within a year or two to rebuild them.
    3. The US wants peace in that oil region to complete the Iraqi troop withdrawal, to finish in Afghanistan, and to allow free flow of oil from that region. We do not import oil from there but the temporary global shortages would cause very high prices.
    4. That attack on Iran’s nuclear installations would energize and drive both Hamas and Hizbullah to attack Israel with all the means they have. They will lose any constrains they may still have and send all the rockets they can on much of the Israeli population. From Jerusalm to Haifa, and the Negev.
    5. The Arab countries would be relieved that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been cut. But none would be friendlier to Israel.
    5. A number of war game simulations were made in the last year in several US institutions (and many more in Israel) to check for potential outcomes. The main results were that the US/Israel relationships would be severely damaged. And the US can easily retaliate against Israel in the economic area and the UN too. And that is the main friend Israel has.

    Some estimates on Israel’s military strength:
    Israel spent billions to acquire the most advanced American fighters F16 I and modified them for long flights to reach Iran and back. But the flight back is not important. Many Israelis will be willing to go one way only to save the nation. The aircrafts also have Israeli electronics to prevent possible US interference or monitoring.

    Israel use of small tactical nuclear weapons would increase Israel ability to destroy the underground nuclear facilities. But some nuclear sites are near population centers. So you use non nuclear bombs to attack targets near population centers, and use small nuclear weapons to attack remote, sparsely populated installations.
    Israel just demonstrated its new large, long range, 20 hours mission, pilotless aircraft that can provide remote sensing and, what I believe would also carry weapons.
    Last year Israel tried to tell Iran that it has the capability to attack it. Israel carried an extremely large maneuver over the Mediterranean with over one hundreds aircrafts flying the equivalent distance to Iran and Back. But it did not impress the Iranians. They know that it was done in fear, not from easy ability to impact Iran.

    Israel spent billions too to build three German conventional submarines, carrying nuclear warheads. At least two are near Iran’s shores regularly. Iran is well aware of that and the threat did not slow them down.

    The US is trying every thing to stop an Israeli attack:
    A lot of promises were given all the time by different administrations- I would not count on them to protect against nuclear attack. It is normal for the US to look for its interest. And Israel needs to look for its own survival needs. Severe disagreements are likely.

    The US provided anti missile defense to Israel with their American troops. But no anti missile defense is fully capable of stopping long range missiles.
    The US, NATO and Israel carried some large military maneuvers as if to tell Iran we are serious. Iran does not buy it. They know all our limitations and can outsmart us any time.
    The US may actually threaten to stop the attack by force. I hope it does not come to that.
    Note that the US Chief of Staff was recently three days in Israel.

    Another concern is that the current civil rebellion will fizzle if Israel attack, a valid concern. However, I do not believe a regime change is likely. The extreme Iranian government would not let the rebels succeed. But an Israeli attack would unit the country behind the government.

    Another critical issue we need to think about is nuclear weapon proliferation. Iran’s nuclear weapons would dictate to the Saudis and Egyptians to develop their own nuclear weapons. With multiplicity of nuclear weapons in that volatile region we would be on the verge of nuclear war all the time. These Arab regimes may be overthrown, or sympathizers in their military would give nuclear weapons to terrorists. This is intolerable situation both regionally and on a wider scope.

    With all the negatives above, and even more, can Israel risk an attack on Iran nuclear installations? I believe yes. There will be a lot of Israeli civilian casualties and damage. There will be immense global outcry; they will be real boycotts against Israeli products. Condemnations would not stop, and for good reasons. But the choice is between two bad alternatives. There is no possible good alternative. And the worse alternative is letting Iran dictates if Israel survives or not. Remember, we are talking about the likely murder by Iran of several million Israelis. The fact that hundred of thousands of Palestinians will also be killed is not important to fanatics.

    I believe that there is no alternative – Israel must put all its power behind that attack.

    By the way, I do believe that the bark of the Iranians and Hizbullah and Hamas, and the threat that Iran will attack the US navy, are serious, but not as fearful as is the common belief. The Iranians are banking on the idea that every one think they are crazy and uncontrollable. On the idea that they are able to do any think they say. I do not believe so. But you have to plan for that eventuality anyhow.

    Nuclear Inspectors: Iran Worked on Warhead
    The United Nations’ nuclear inspectors last week declared for the first time that they had extensive evidence of "past or current undisclosed activities" by Iran’s military to develop a nuclear warhead, The New York Times reported. The reportâ€"issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)â€"cited new evidence that appeared to paint a picture of a concerted drive in Iran toward a weapons capability. Echoing the Obama administration, the agency described an escalating series of worrisome steps by Iran: the enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, its acknowledgment of a secret enrichment plant in Qom and its rejection of a deal to enrich its uranium outside the country. The Islamic Republic also told inspectors it was preparing to make its uranium into a metallic formâ€"a step that is widely viewed as necessary for making the core of an atom bomb. AIPAC 3/10

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