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Ten days after the Iraq War began, I happened to be in Washington on a work visit. I had the chance to observe up close the imperial capital that had just embarked on the most perilous adventure of the new century. I read newspapers, watched television, spoke with colleagues—and was amazed to discover how not only Fox News but every other major media outlet had wrapped itself in the red-white-and-blue. I met with administration officials, spoke with well-known strategists, and dined with advisors to the White House—and was amazed to discover how utterly without doubt they all were.
To this day, I remember how torn I felt about the fanfare of war. On the one hand, as an Israeli, I am always grateful to America for being a staunch and steadfast ally to my small and often imperiled nation. On the other hand, as an Israeli, I sensed what a terrible historic mistake America was making. Arriving from the Middle East to the banks of the Potomac, I watched fretfully as the city I love blithely led the nation I love into the treacherous sands of the tribal, fanatical and violent part of the world in which I live.
This is how I feel now, as the news from Lausanne arrives. More so than many of my American friends, I look upon America with profound appreciation. I always remember that in World War I and then again in World War II, it was America that saved humanity. And it was America that prevented World War III. I am thankful that America gave the world the best 70 years it has ever had: 1945-2015. Despite the mistakes in Vietnam, in Iraq and in other places, the post-Nagasaki Pax Americana has given more humans more peace more prosperity and more liberty that at any other time in history. Not only as an Israeli but also as a citizen of the free world, I want a strong America to protect freedom, maintain world order and remain the global leader in the 21st century, as it was in the 20th century.
But what should I do when Washington might once again make another terrible historic mistake? What should I do when my understanding with the Middle East allows me to see that the capital city I love is once again leading the nation that I love into the treacherous sands of the tribal, fanatical and violent part of the world in which I live?
Iran is not an Israel-only issue. Iran should not be a Republican, or conservative or a hawkish issue. If Iran goes nuclear, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and the Gulf states will go nuclear. If Iran goes nuclear, Israel will have to change its responsible and restrained nuclear policy. If Iran goes nuclear, the Middle East will become a multi-player nuclear arena, that no one can manage and no one can control. Worried about ISIS? Anxious about Al Qaeda? Shocked by the carnage in Syria? Imagine what will happen when the most unstable region in the world becomes nuclearized. One outcome will be even more extremism. A second outcome will be unceasing conventional wars. A third outcome will be the proliferation of nuclear capabilities in the hands of non- state players that will use them, sooner or later, to catastrophic results. The overall outcome will be a strategic nightmare that will first disrupt the everyday life of Tel Aviv and Riyadh, then Paris and London and finally New York and Chicago. So the most urgent issue of day should not pit Israelis against Americans, Democrats against Republicans, liberals against conservatives. If Iran is nuclearized, everyone’s values and way of life will be endangered. If the Middle East is nuclearized, the 21st century will become a century of nuclear terror and nuclear horror.
The deal that Obama announced on Thursday does not do enough to prevent this. Does an agreement that allows Iran to keep 6,100 spinning centrifuges really lock under 1,000 locks and bolt behind 1,000 bolts the Iranian nuclear project? Does an agreement that allows Iran to maintain research and development capabilities and an underground facility on Fordow really fully take advantage of Iran’s economic frailty in order to ensure the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure?
Regarding Iran’s nuclear plans no mistakes can be made. This is not a passing, marginal international crisis, but the most urgent challenge facing our civilization. But the sad truth is that in the face of Iran’s nuclear threat, the United States, Israel and all of their allies have made countless mistakes over the last decade. President George W. Bush invested all of America’s resources and energy in the failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—instead of focusing on a vigorous diplomatic-economic campaign against Tehran. Israeli Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert believed mistakenly that a James Bond-like mission could defuse the ticking bomb of Natanz. President Barack Obama did not exploit the unprecedented opportunity presented by the democratic uprising in Iran in June 2009—when American interests and American values suddenly aligned. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu well understood the Iranian threat but turned it into an Israeli issue with an over-emphasis on the military option.
Only in the years 2011-2012 did Washington begin a strategic and effective diplomatic effort against Tehran, but the moment it began to bear fruit, it was abandoned. A decade of strategic shadowboxing between Iran and the West ended in 2013 with an almost-technological-victory for Tehran.The 19,000 centrifuges it managed to produce and install are testament to the fact that the great American democracy and the frontier Israeli democracy failed in their struggle against the Shiite theocracy.
