Donald Trump’s impending arrival at the White House is not only having a seismic impact on American politics. It is also creating dramatic changes to the global landscape, especially regarding the conduct of hostile states that will soon find themselves in the new administration’s cross hairs.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are among those that have cause to be concerned about the impact the more robust approach adopted by the incoming Trump administration will have on their fortunes.

Even though the president-elect is still in the early stages of forming his new administration, it is already abundantly clear that Trump 2.0 will be a far more formidable beast than Trump 1.0 in terms of its approach to the world’s malcontents.

The appointment of Pete Hegseth, a high-profile military veteran and Fox News presenter, as Trump’s next defence secretary will certainly concentrate a few minds in places like Moscow and Tehran. A hawk on both Russia and Iran, Hegseth has been a vocal critic of the Biden administration’s half-hearted support for Ukraine, and previously called on Trump during his first stint in the White House to launch direct military action against the ayatollahs.

Similarly, Senator Marco Rubio, who is being lined up to become secretary of state, has little appetite for compromise when dealing with America’s foes, arguing against a ceasefire in Gaza on the grounds that Israel should “destroy every element of Hamas they can get their hands on”, an approach that stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s continuing pursuit of a ceasefire-for-hostages deal.

Add to this Trump’s appointment of John Ratcliffe, who is convinced that Covid originated from a Chinese research laboratory, as CIA director, and Mike Waltz, another renowned China hawk, as national security advisor, and it is clear that, with the equally hawkish J D Vance set to become vice president, Washington’s foes will mess with the next Trump administration at their peril.

The prospect of Trump’s imminent return to the Oval Office has certainly had a galvanising impact on America’s adversaries, with his election victory forcing them to have a serious rethink about their options.

Nowhere is this more evident than on the Ukrainian battlefield, where Russian president Vladimir Putin has launched a desperate scramble to capture as much territory as possible, even if it means sustaining even greater casualties. There is a general expectation that one of Trump’s first moves will be to end the Ukraine conflict, not least because he boasted during the election campaign that he could do so within 24 hours. This has prompted both Russia and Ukraine to intensify their efforts to capture as much territory as possible to create “facts on the ground” prior to any negotiations taking place.

Russia’s attempts to retake territory in the southern Kursk region, which was captured by Ukraine in the summer, is proving particularly costly, with the Russian military suffering an astonishing 2,000 casualties a day. With the Russians having sustained in excess of 500,000 casualties since Putin launched his “special military operation” in February 2022, Moscow has now deployed an estimated 10,000 North Koreans troops to support its operations in Kursk, a development that has its own grave implications for Western security.

With China and Iran already providing military support for Moscow’s war effort, the introduction of another rogue actor to back Russia’s land grab is a graphic reminder of the dramatic changes taking place to the global threat environment.

Nor is this radical change in behaviour confined to Washington’s foes. This week’s suggestion that the European Commission is looking to change its spending policies to allow greater investment in the bloc’s defence and security could prove vital to providing European nations with the wherewithal to protect their interests.

This long-overdue move, which could see tens of billions of euros redirected to fund Europe’s defence needs, is a belated acknowledgement that, with Trump back in power, European nations can no longer rely on Washington to defend them.

The commission’s overdue initiative is certainly something No 10 should take on board as the UK, in common with the rest of its European allies, is singularly ill-prepared to defend itself without American support.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility, for example, that Sir Keir Starmer could soon find himself facing calls from Trump for British forces, together with other European allies, to be deployed to Ukraine to patrol a demilitarised zone on Ukraine’s eastern border in the event of a ceasefire being implemented.

Given the current parlous state of our Armed Forces, with the Army being reduced to its smallest level since the Napoleonic era, the Government would struggle to meet such a request, a failing that would simply confirm Trump’s long-held view that America’s key allies are not serious about funding their defence commitments.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House may be a cause of consternation for America’s foes. But it should also serve as a warning that his new administration will expect all Washington’s allies to pay their fair share towards the defence of the free world.

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