Chumps

Listening to the rhetoric emanating from the White House, the media, and sundry foreign ministries, one cannot help but feel that something rotten is being cooked up.

The definition of a “chump” is someone who is a sucker, gullible or easily deceived.

Unfortunately, this more than adequately sums up the prevailing scenario as far as deals with Iran are concerned.

One of the main problems with politically negotiated deals is the fine details and secret protocols that never see the light of day. Too often, deals touted as “fantastic” and”historical” contain secret clauses that, when inevitably revealed, prove disastrous.

When one of the protagonists, usually the one who brags the most, asserts that he alone knows how to make a deal, one should be wary of the outcome.

Currently, we are on tenterhooks as every day brings hourly updates on a supposed deal being hammered out between Iran and the United States.

Trump, who believes that he is no chump, blows hot and cold, alternating threats of dire consequences with expressions of euphoric expectations. Claiming that he never makes “bad deals” and that “Bibi will do whatever I tell him”, the situation lurches from the sublime to the ridiculous.

In the midst of this entire frenetic verbal onslaught, there are some hard, cold realities that need to be addressed.

The fact that there is a stunning silence from the Israeli political establishment at the moment is a sign that nobody wants to upset things before the inevitable “deal of the millennium” is revealed.

Historical precedents, however, give us several clues as to where we may be heading, and the omens do not look good. Remaining silent in the face of potentially disastrous outcomes is not a recipe for satisfactory results. Anticipating a fantastic future when dealing with those who are consummate liars is an exercise in self-deception.

Unfortunately, history is littered with such fruitless endeavours.

Jews have been more often than not at the receiving end of failed agreements and deals, and it has cost us dearly.

Iran is a rogue regime that oppresses its own citizens, exports terror via proxy groups and is dedicated to the elimination of Israel. To further these aims, it has developed a vast array of ballistic missiles and drones, engaged in clandestine nuclear activity, threatened all those who stand in its way and bullied all those who oppose it.

Iran receives support from the world’s non-democratic axis of evil and is protected from censure and condemnation by the corrupt United Nations. This organisation has been subverted by the very nations whose human rights abuses are on a par with those in Iran.

Proof that the UN is now beyond any sort of redemption is the fact that Iran is elected or appointed to committees dealing with human rights and disarmament.

As an added bonus, a legion of useful idiots in most democracies, from universities, the media, academia and misinformed masses, have been brainwashed to march and demonstrate loyalty to the Islamic Republic. At the same time, they spew vicious incitement against their own country and, of course, Zionists.

Iran has revived piracy as a means to terrorise international shipping, and together with its proxy Houthis in Yemen, now openly flouts freedom of navigation.

It is against this background that Iran, boosted by a hefty dose of jihadist fanatic ideology, sees Trump seeking to negotiate some sort of deal which will not only incentivise increased terror but also guarantee international immunity.

One of the intriguing aspects of the current negotiations is the contradictory reports emanating from American and Iranian sources. Almost on an hourly basis, statements claim “amazing” progress towards some sort of understanding to end hostilities. This is almost immediately followed by counterannouncements by Iranian officials.

One minute, Trump triumphantly proclaims that Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be thwarted. Two minutes later, an Iranian spokesperson flatly denies that the subject of uranium and nuclear possession is even on the agenda.

It is these “ping pong” tactics that, for seasoned observers, should be ringing warning bells. Those touting Trump’s negotiating skills believe that it is all part of some grand and magnificent strategy that will, at the end of the day, produce the deal of the millennium.

More earth-grounded and realistic commentators see an entirely different pattern developing.

The favourite strategy employed by the Iranian Mullah regime is to agree, deny, and envelop the talks in a fog of confusion. Dragging things out for as long as possible has always been a successful strategy. Either the opposite side will, as a result of domestic or international pressure, surrender to long drawn-out and inconclusive bartering, or they will lose patience and go for a quick fix.

Either way, the resultant deal will be full of holes and unenforceable conditions.

The other alternative is to hold out long enough to ensure that the democratic process in your opponent’s country removes him/her and replaces them with someone more amenable to appeasement and deceit.

The Iranian Islamists are master champions when it comes to employing these tactics.

A brief prognosis of what could transpire if this deal is consummated will expose the dangerous, life-threatening repercussions that are sure to detonate.

Freedom of navigation

Who will enforce transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz? How will Iran be prevented from extorting tolls and using the funds to pay for terror activities? Does anyone actually believe that the Europeans will enforce unimpeded navigation?

Economic sanctions

Iran’s economy is in free fall. Releasing frozen funds would be a lifeline for the regime and a sign that its opponents’ resolve is weakening. Rewarding deceit and deception is a sure recipe for renewed appeasement. Short of a full-scale ground invasion and saturation bombing, economic strangulation remains the only viable way to enforce complete capitulation and regime change.

Proxies

Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other terror groups are sustained and financed by Iran. If their funding is severed, they will rapidly collapse. If a deal enables Iran to continue acting as its patron, uncontrollable instability and terror will reign supreme. Weak appeasers in the EU and elsewhere will find that terror erupting in their countries will be sponsored by these groups.

Missiles and Drones

Within a very short space of time after the signing of any deal, full-scale production of missiles and drones will be underway. The ability to reach Europe, the UK and the USA is already achievable, and Iran will be poised to threaten not just the Gulf States and Israel but also countries further afield.

Nuclear ambitions

Iran has years of experience at subterfuge and evading international scrutiny. They have amassed a large quantity of enriched uranium and have secret underground sites still to be discovered. The much vaunted American bombing of facilities has, despite Trump’s bombastic claims, failed to destroy them. Failure to seize the buried uranium and permanently disable the covert nuclear material will be catastrophic. Who exactly is going to do this? Who will supervise to make sure that clandestine work on nuclear bombs is not renewed? Who will ensure that missile development is not part of a nuclear strategy? In the past, the IAEA was effectively neutered when Iran expelled its inspectors, destroyed cameras and monitoring equipment and banned any inspections. If the Iranians are allowed to once again get away with ducking and diving and pulling the wool over the eyes of the international community, the results will be disastrous. Who will ensure that China, Russia, North Korea or Pakistan will not secretly deliver nuclear technology and material?

Human Rights

Any deal which leaves the Mullahs free to execute, imprison and torture their own citizens and enables the regime to persecute women and religious and ethnic minorities is not worth the paper it might be written on.

International legitimacy

Allowing Iran to be a valued member of international organisations while at the same time it vows to annihilate Israel demonstrates hypocrisy and double standards on a grand scale.

Mediators

Embracing the likes of Israel-hating Turkey and terror-funding Qatar as “mediators” with Iran is a flawed strategy and a recipe for a suspect outcome.

It could be that talk of a deal is just so much hot air. On the other hand, if it materialises and fails to address the above-mentioned challenges, it will go down in history as another Munich-type act of folly.

Waving a piece of paper and claiming it brings peace in our time will be a fatal exercise of lethal futility.