IDF Believes Hamas Will Gain West Bank After Final Status Arrangement

Jerusalem – A final status arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians will result in Hamas rising to power by democratic means in Judea and Samaria as well. That is one of the underlying premises of a document that was drafted by the Planning Branch of the IDF General Staff at the request of the U.S. administration.

According to the document, such a scenario would oblige Israel to enact very strict security measures that would be geared to prevent high trajectory fire out of the West Bank into Israel.

The document itemizes the Israeli positions on the final status arrangement on the issue of the security arrangements between Israel and the Palestinian state, and it will be presented in the next number of days before the American General James Jones, who currently serves as the secretary of state’s special envoy.

This is the first time that Israel has been asked to issue a document that cites its positions on security arrangements in the final status arrangement, which is the third phase of the road map.

Senior sources within the Israeli security establishment said that Defense Minister Ehud Barak instructed officers in the Planning Branch who had drafted the document to cite in it the security and military lessons that Israel learned in the wake of its disengagement from the Gaza Strip.

In the course of a meeting that General Jones recently held with Mr. Barak, the defense minister said that the security arrangements would have to take into account a response to the possibility that a group like Hamas might seize control of the Palestinian Authority by democratic means.

General Jones is directly subordinate to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Arab League Summit

The annual summit of the Arab League, founded in 1945, began on Saturday in Damascus in a tense atmosphere of concern over the shaky state of the Arab world.

“There is a crisis of confidence within us,” said Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, “and international forces are interfering in our internal affairs, the Palestinian question first of all, in an unprecedented manner.”

The president of Syria also said, “Various challenges threaten our internal security,” warning Israel that the time that passes without peace negotiations will bring it no additional benefit.

“We in Syria emphasize that peace will not be obtained except by means of the return of the entire Golan Heights, up to the lines of June 4, 1967. Israel’s foot-dragging will not provide it with better conditions, nor will it make us give up an inch or any rights,” Syrian President Bashar Assad said in a speech that lasted approximately a quarter of an hour in the conference’s main hall, which was broadcast live to millions of viewers.

“We emphasize that peace will come only thanks to withdrawal from occupied Arab land and the restoration of all rights. The Israeli perception of ‘security first’ cannot be realized because occupation kills both security and peace.”

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced in a meeting that he held with foreign ambassadors that Israel is interested in starting negotiations with Syria.

“Israel sees that as a major policy goal,” he said, but added, “We are following what is happening in the north, and the strengthening of Hezbollah with Syrian support.”

The 20th annual summit of the Arab League began with the jarring absence of all the kings – Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. Also prominent in their absence were Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his counterpart from Yemen, Ali Abdullah Salah. Most of those countries sought in that way to protest Syria’s interference in Beirut’s affairs, yet while they still sent some representation, Lebanon chose to boycott the summit entirely. None of this kept the Syrians from giving the conference the slogan “The Arab solidarity summit.”

PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, AKA Abu Mazen, gave an emotional speech in which he warned of the complete collapse of the peace process and called for urgent international assistance.

“The Israeli government wants to create facts on the ground before the diplomatic solution,” he said. “We ask our Arab brothers to think seriously about providing international Arab protection to the besieged Palestinian people. Our message is clear to all the countries and elements who were present with us at the Annapolis conference, first of all the Quartet – hurry and take your responsibility, and save the peace process.”

Libya’s leader, Muammar Gaddafi, was the sharpest of all in his complaints about the Arab world, claiming that the Arabs have nothing in common.

“No common currency, no common economy, no shared export, no unified position and no common state,” he explained.

The Libyan leader criticized the leaders of the Arab world for their apathy concerning Iraq and asked for an international investigation of Saddam’s execution and the poisoning, as he described it, of Yasser Arafat.

“A foreign country comes and occupies an Arab country, overthrows its president, and we sit by and watch,” he said, and warned, “We are the friends of America, but one day it will hang us as well.”

After the speeches, the conference participants held a closed meeting. The conference was scheduled to conclude yesterday with the issuing of a closing statement.

In a speech intended to arouse passions at the Arab summit, Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh called upon the Arab states last Friday to reconsider their position regarding the peace process because of “Israeli aggression.”

“The Palestinian people has proven that it is capable of fighting the Zionist enemy,” Mr. Haniyeh said, asking the Arab leaders to express support for the armed struggle, while at the same time saying that his government will support an agreement for a mutual lull with Israel in exchange for lifting the blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Analysis:_Cause For Concern

Without a doubt, this was the summit of worry. Arab leaders stood up on Saturday in front of millions of their people and told them of the terrible fear gnawing at their hearts. All-powerful men, who are capable of making opponents of the regime disappear as easily as they drink their morning coffee, stood on the speakers’ platform and admitted to the existence of the evil spirits hovering over their heads.

Mr. Gaddafi warned that Saddam’s fate could repeat itself in other countries because of the intolerable ease with which the Americans succeeded in removing him. Mr. Assad spoke about the “challenges,” a restrained code word for serious problems, that threaten internal security. Mr. Moussa said in general that a question mark loomed over the future of the Arabs. Every one of them knows very well how fragile his regime is, whether it is possible for a foreign power to overthrow it without even asking leave of the international community. It is obvious to them all that their brothers will not come to their aid if the invasion of Iraq should repeat itself on their own soil.

Yet when at least some of them talk about America, they are referring to Iran. After all, who can guarantee them that once Iran becomes a nuclear power, it will not want to annex, on the ground or from a distance, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait, and fill its coffers with billions of dollars? Who is willing to bet that soon Iran will not have actual control of Iraq or the sole word in Lebanon?

For many years, Israel has been guided by the aspiration of splitting the Arab world. Any alliance that came into being was considered a dangerous measure here. Today the Arab world is split, and lo and behold, this is not in the Zionist interest. The countries that met in Damascus have an interest in a weak Iran and a stable Middle East. Not coincidentally, this is an Israeli requirement as well.

These shared desires, which were well emphasized at the summit on Saturday, mark an increasing trend. It is no longer everyone against Israel, but Iran and its friends against everyone else. In this division, Israel is an honorary member of the moderate camp. The Arab world is growing closer to it, seeking its advice and experience, despite the Palestinian problem or perhaps because of it.

The gloomy atmosphere in the hall in Damascus, together with Mr. Abbas’ pessimistic “bulldozer speech,” succeeded in turning the absence of several important leaders into a marginal event. The host, Mr. Assad, won on points from his perspective: He succeeded in showing that it is possible to make the conference significant even without Hosni Mubarak and the Saudi Arabian king.

Ma’ariv

Near Miss: Kassam Rocket Lands Between Two Kindergartens

A Kassam rocket exploded on Friday morning in the courtyard that links two kindergartens in Kibbutz Nir Am. A few seconds earlier, dozens of little children were still outside playing on the grass. But miraculously they managed to flee to the protected areas within the 15 seconds that elapsed between the time the Red Color alert sounded and when the rocket slammed into the kibbutz grounds and exploded. Thus, a terrible tragedy was averted and the Kassam rocket “only” caused property damage.

Just a few meters separate the two kindergartens on Kibbutz Nir Am. The one is for toddlers between the ages of one and three, and the other is for children between the ages of three and five. On Friday morning, the children from the two kindergartens were outside playing in the courtyard that connects the two kindergartens, when suddenly the Red Color alert sounded. The children, who have already grown accustomed to the alarm, dropped their toys and quickly ran on their own into the bombproof kindergartens. A few seconds later, the rocket exploded between the two kindergartens. Windows were shattered and some of the walls were damaged by shrapnel, but no one was physically injured. Two children suffered from shock and were treated on the scene.

“Every Kassam rocket that lands on us but doesn’t hurt us is a miracle, but the Kassam on Friday was one of the bigger miracles to have come our way,” said one resident of the kibbutz.

Ofer Lieberman, a resident of another kibbutz, said: “The kids are disciplined. When there’s a Red Color alert, they run away immediately, without any arguments at all.”

Leah Mutzafi, whose son attends one of the kindergartens, recounted: “I was in the grocery store near the kindergarten and I heard the Red Color alert and then an enormous explosion from the direction of the kindergarten. Immediately I thought about my son and I ran to the kindergarten. Everything was black and there was shrapnel everywhere. I began to look for my son like crazy. I picked him up in my arms and ran home with him. While the kindergarten is bombproof for the most part, our houses are completely vulnerable. That’s criminal negligence.”

Kibbutz Nir Am has been the community most targeted by Kassam rocket fire after Sderot. Nevertheless, most of the buildings on the kibbutz have no fortification whatsoever. The kindergartens are, but the residential homes are not, all promises to the contrary notwithstanding.

Over the course of the Sabbath, four mortar shells were fired at Israeli communities in the south. They exploded in open areas causing no injuries.

Yedioth Ahronoth

David Bedein can be reached at Media@actcom.co.il. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008