Institute for Study of War: ‘Ceasefire terms are tantamount to a Hezbollah defeat’

The Insitute for the Study of War (ISW) called the ceasefire in Lebanon that went into effect yesterday (Wednesday) a “defeat” for the Hezbollah terrorist organization, as it did not achieve its goals of forcing Israel to end its military campaign in Gaza or secure an agreement that Israel would no longer carry out military attacks in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild and rearm.

“This ceasefire and its terms are tantamount to a Hezbollah defeat,” the ISW wrote in a report on the ceasefire. “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims. Hezbollah initiated its attack campaign targeting Israel in October 2023 to support Hamas, and Hezbollah’s leaders have said repeatedly that it would not end its attacks without a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. This ceasefire does not include an end to Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip. Current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon.”

“Israel has accomplished its war aim through two months of military operations in Lebanon and this ceasefire. Hezbollah claimed incorrectly that it defeated Israel,” the report said.

It explained that “Israel began its ground campaign in Lebanon to create safe conditions to return Israelis to their homes in northern Israel. IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an October 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles. Destroying Hezbollah’s military organization—which is the only military objective that would prevent all attacks into Israel permanently—was never the stated objective of Israeli military operations. A ceasefire deal, however, will prevent attacks into Israel through diplomatic means.”

However, it noted that the ceasefire agreement “contains several elements that will prove difficult to implement,” such as the reliance on the Lebanese army and the UN to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and restoring its military capabilities in southern Lebanon, a task both failed at performing in the 18 years since the 2nd Lebanon War.

“The difficulties in implementing this deal mean that Hezbollah and Iran can recover from this setback if the United States and Israel fail to prevent Hezbollah and Iran from doing so,” it said.

“Netanyahu noted that Israeli operations in Lebanon had ‘pushed [Hezbollah back] decades.’ The group retains fighters, weapons, and political control throughout Lebanon, however. Hezbollah will almost certainly attempt to reoccupy southern Lebanon because Hezbollah’s stated raison d’etre is to end Israel’s control over the Shebaa Farms, which it sees as Israeli-occupied Lebanese territory. The group also supports Iran’s efforts to destroy the Israeli state. Hezbollah will be unable to accomplish this task if it is forced to disarm in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah refused to abide by the last disarmament and withdrawal agreement, and it is unlikely that this war has changed Hezbollah leadership’s willingness to abandon its aspirations for southern Lebanon.” the report stated.