Incisive Perspective: Syria and Saudi Arabia

How ironic. President Barack Obama extolls the “Arab Spring,” helps overthrow the Egyptian and Tunisian governments, made a try to do so in Bahrain (until the State Department talked the White House out of it), and is still trying in Yemen and in Libya (with military intervention!) yet does nothing on Syria, the most repressive by far of all these countries (except Libya).

So, here’s how the Middle East works. As an Arab friend writes to me:

“Everyone, whether anti- or pro-regime, is convinced that the U.S. government is protecting [Syrian dictator] Bashar al-Assad and wants him to stay. The longer this administration stands by its incredibly stupid position telling him to “lead the transition” as he kills and tortures at will, it will be stained by his obscenity.”

In other words, when the U.S. government defends the Assad regime the people believe it supports the Assad regime. Every principle set down by the Obama Administration on Egypt and elsewhere-whether right or wrong-is being violated by that same government in Syria!

Here’s an example , for those with a strong stomach, about what’s going on in Syria:

And the Syrian oppositionists correctly believe that they aren’t getting any international support. Palestinian groups that have practiced terrorism for decades are treated as saints and victims; the Syrian people (and Iranian, Turkish, and Lebanese oppositions, too) are treated like pariahs. Western students do nothing for them; Western students and activists don’t protest on their behalf.

Why do only anti-Western movements and opponents of governments friendly to the West get Western support?

The White House even rightly accused Syria of letting protesters cross through closed military zones to let them attack Israel’s borders in order to distract from its repression of protesters at home. The White House spokesman said, “Such behavior is unacceptable.”

But apparently it is acceptable to the White House.

After all, the Washington Post states in an editorial :

“The administration said ten days ago that it would `adjust… relations with Syria according to the concrete actions undertaken by the Syrian government.’ Since then Syrian troops have invaded more cities and killed scores more people. Now the regime has provoked violence with Israel. Has the time not yet come for an `adjustment’?”

No. Two weeks after this editorial and almost a month since promising to do something on Syria, the administration shows no sign of altering a Middle East policy mainly defined as being nice to the West’s enemies and nasty to its friends. What’s particularly noteworthy is that we aren’t just talking about Israel but also: democratic oppositions in Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey; as well as the governments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the smaller Gulf states. This Obama Administration is an equal opportunity unreliable friend.

And what does Israel’s government think about Syria?

The Syrian government is not exactly popular in Israel. There have been times in the past when Israeli policymakers thought Syria might stabilize the Lebanon-Israel border. But this expectation has never really worked out. So nobody’s thought like that for many years.

There are three reasons why Israel has “accepted” the Assad regime. First, it couldn’t do anything to change the situation. Second, it viewed the regime’s continuation as inevitable. And third Israel worries that a revolutionary Islamist regime would replace it and make the regional situation even worse.

Bottom line:

Israel doesn’t have any options to affect Syria’s internal politics. Purely as an observation, Assad will probably survive. Israel will lobby neither for nor against Assad’s fall. But Israel must be prepared since–as we just saw with the Nakba day events–he will heat up anti-Israel activities to distract attention from his problems and legitimize his regime.

These have been observations, not plans for action. Israel has never lobbied with anyone to preserve or protect the current Syrian regime. Assad hasn’t needed “help” to maintain the support, or at least toleration, he has received from the West. Israel’s political capital is precious and won’t be wasted on an issue where action isn’t needed and would make no difference.

If Israel believed that a moderate democratic regime–or at least one that wouldn’t attack it and sponsor terrorism against it–would emerge Israel certainly wouldn’t oppose such an outcome.

But Assad is likely to survive both because of his own ruthlessness and the West’s shameful behavior. Warsaw, 1944; Budapest, 1956; Prague, 1967; meet Damascus, 2011.