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The battle for Jerusalem-and the RPGs in Jenin
Streets of Jenin, West Bank
In the days leading up to Hanukkah, the rapidly intensifying battle in Samaria made clear that sooner rather than later, Samaria and Judea will soon replace Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria and Yemen as the central battlefield in this multifront war.
They will also be the place where the war is won. Or lost.
Jenin, the northernmost Palestinian city, has long been the terror capital of Samaria. On Monday, footage from the city showed U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority security forces walking around holding RPGs. For the past week or so, the P.A. has been fighting yet another half-hearted battle against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror forces in the city. The P.A. is engaging in the fight for one main reason—to secure the continued support of the Americans and the IDF High Command.
The P.A. is largely an empty shell. Its forces, which receive lavish funding, training and arms from the United States control very little of the areas ostensibly under its oversight. According to a survey taken in September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), only 18% of the Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria support the P.A. On the other hand, 85% of Palestinian Arabs in Judea and Samaria expressed satisfaction with Hamas’s war efforts, and 56% said that armed struggle is the best way for the Palestinian Arabs to achieve their goals. Hamas enjoys 37% of public support. The rest don’t know who they support.
In head-to-head races, Hamas bests the P.A. at every turn.
With next to no public support, the P.A.’s forces have opted to put on a sound and light show of fighting Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror forces in Jenin to prove their relevance not so much to the public, but to their primary sponsors: the IDF General Staff and the Americans.
For the past several months, the Netanyahu government has repeatedly ordered the General Staff to take over the principle governing function in Gaza: the distribution of humanitarian aid. But Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the IDF Chief of the General Staff, has staunchly refused to carry out the order. For Halevi and several of his subordinates, avoiding direct Israeli control over the population in Gaza has been a central rationale for directing the fighting on the ground. Their operating concept foresees the same P.A. that has no control over Judea and Samaria entering Gaza and taking over governance from Hamas at the end of the war.
In part, their judgment is informed by pressure from the Biden administration, which has insisted that Israel agree to transfer governing control over Gaza to the P.A. in a bid to renew the so-called “peace process” that is supposed to bring about the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state in Gaza, Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem.
In part, it is informed by the General Staff members’ ideological commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state, which despite the invasion on Oct. 7, 2023, and their total failure to foresee and so prevent the event, remains the primary strategic end they seek.
On Wednesday, Col. (res.) Ronen Cohen, the former deputy chief of the assessment department of IDF Military intelligence, argued on his X account that the death this week of three soldiers in the Kfir Brigade in Beit Hanoun in Gaza on Monday morning was the consequence of Halevi’s abject refusal to assert actual control over any part of Gaza. The three were killed when an IED was detonated on them after they carried out an operation in the town, located a stone’s throw from the border with Israel.
The same rationale, informs the IDF decision to permit and even encourage P.A. forces to operate in Jenin. It isn’t simply that those forces have no public support. They share the goals of Hamas and Islamic Jihad—to annihilate Israel through armed struggle. Last March, the Regavim movement published a paper based entirely on official statements issued by the P.A. and Fatah, which celebrated more than seventy terror attacks against Israel carried out by P.A. security forces.
The General Staff has prevented the publication of data on P.A. involvement in terrorism for decades. And this makes sense. If the generals admit that the P.A. forces are terrorist forces, then their entire conceptual framework is destroyed. So groups like Regavim have been forced to cull the Internet for Fatah and P.A. statements revealing that involvement to expose the open secret that cannot be discussed if the “two-state solution” is to be maintained. And so, on cue, shortly after the footage of the P.A. forces in Jenin walking around with RPGs was published, the IDF insisted that those weren’t weapons in use. The P.A. guys had just seized the RPGs from Hamas. They won’t use them. Nothing to see here.
The strategic implications of the RPG story, however, are too big to sweep under the rug.
Their presence in Judea and Samaria requires the IDF to reassess its battle plans. Those RPGs endanger armored forces. RPGs were one of the primary weapons Hamas forces used to massacre civilians in the communities they overran on Oct. 7 and to prevent IDF forces from rescuing them. The presence of RPGs in Judea and Samaria requires a shift not only for IDF operational planning but in defensive planning for the Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria, as well as Jerusalem, the Sharon and Gilboa regions.
Erdoğan: ‘Patience brings victory’
Then there is the fighting in Tulkarem. While the P.A. fritters away whatever residual support it enjoys among the public by fighting a fake battle against Hamas in Jenin, IDF forces are fighting an actual battle in two hardened terror hubs in the city of Tulkarem, which is strategically located adjacent to the Cross Israel Highway, and near the cities of Kfar Yona and Netanya. On Tuesday night, an APC carrying the Menashe Regional Brigade commander, Col. Ayub Kayuf, and Judea and Samaria Division commander, Brig. Gen. Yaki Dolf, was hit by an explosive device. The device was buried beneath the pavement and detonated remotely. Kayuf sustained minor injuries while Dolf emerged unscathed.
The incident exposed a reality that was little known among the public. The Hamas terror forces that control Tulkarem have transformed the city into an IED hub. Before IDF forces carry out open operations, based on intelligence information, commanders deploy bulldozers in the areas of planned operations to remove the top level of pavement. According to Channel 14, in recent days, 12 IEDs were exposed in this manner.
In the case of Dolf and Kayuf, the IDF had no prior information that IEDs were in the area, so no bulldozers were deployed ahead of their patrol. The presence of IEDs—buried Iraq-, Gaza- or Lebanon-style under roads, along with the presence of RPGs in battle—makes clear the frightening dimensions of the threat that P.A., Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces in Judea and Samaria pose to Israel.
This is not a situation that Israel can allow to fester. The quantity of arms sloshing around Judea and Samaria—from Iran, the United States, Europe, Turkey and Jordan, and the public mobilization on behalf of a war of annihilation against Israel are too great to brush aside.
Had the Palestinian Arabs managed to kill Dolf and Kayuf on Tuesday night as they intended, the government would have had no choice but to send divisions of forces to Judea and Samaria to begin a massive operation in the areas. That they survived the attack cannot blind anyone to the fact that such an offensive is only a matter of time. And the government, the public, and, most importantly, the IDF need to be prepared for the fight before those RPGs start blowing up tanks and tearing apart neighborhoods in cities and towns across the country.
The stakes are not local. This isn’t a war about Samaria or Judea, per se.
Hamas called its Oct. 7 invasion of Israel the “Al Aqsa Flood.” Its purpose was to pave the way for the destruction of Israel through the conquest of Jerusalem. Hezbollah’s plans for the invasion of the Galilee presented the coming battle as the battle for Jerusalem, not Haifa. Iran seeks Israel’s destruction to “liberate Jerusalem.”
This week, a clip of a speech by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan showed his supporters urging him to “take us to Jerusalem.” He responded: “Patience brings victory.” Erdoğan’s proxies that have taken over Syria have similarly stated that their goal is the conquest of Jerusalem.
Israel’s control over Samaria and Jerusalem is what secures its sovereignty in Jerusalem. If the Palestinians seize control over these areas, then the fall of Jerusalem becomes a foregone conclusion. The military, political and ideological battle for these areas is the battle for Jerusalem.
The inevitability of this battle was apparent to anyone listening to what the P.A. has been telling the Palestinians since the 1990s. Every single leader—from Yasser Arafat to Mahmoud Abbas to the last of the minor P.A. officials and terrorists—told us and continue to tell us that they are fighting for Jerusalem.
The situation has become untenable
Israel’s ruling elites—from the IDF General Staff to Shin Bet leadership, from the media to the legal system to academia—have refused to admit this state of affairs. Instead, they have insisted on an artificial distinction between the “moderate” P.A. and the “radical” Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces. In their efforts, they have been supported by successive U.S. administrations. The unbridled hostility of the European Union, the United Nations and other international actors towards Israel as a whole has been used by Israel’s leftist ruling class and Washington as a means to coerce successive governments and the unwilling public to maintain faith with the fiction that the P.A. is a stabilizing force, whether in Judea and Samaria or in the Gaza Strip.
Most of their efforts across the years were directed not against the Palestinian Arabs calling for the conquest of Jerusalem. Their chief foe (and the focus of their anger) has always been the Israelis—IDF officers, politicians, journalists, academics and regular citizens who have insisted on listening to the Palestinian Arabs and acting accordingly.
If the war is to end, Israel must win this battle in a manner that is not open to question. To win this war, Israel needs to dismantle not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but the governing body that has cultivated and grown these forces. To win the battle for Jerusalem, Israel must dismantle the P.A.’s security forces and the notion that they are moderates, or that they aren’t fighting for Jerusalem.
The presence of advanced weapons and tens of thousands of men under arms supported by a society mobilized to use them to kill thousands of Israelis at the first opportunity has made the situation untenable. The government is well-advised to delay the reckoning until after Donald Trump becomes president in January and until after Halevi’s expected resignation in February. It is clear that the battle cannot be won so long as the IDF is led by a man who refuses to abandon the strategic conception that the P.A. is Israel’s partner, not its enemy.
In the past year and three months of war, the overwhelming sense has been that we are fighting for the survival not only of Israel but of the Jewish people. There is poetic justice, then, in the fact that the approaching battle for Jerusalem has come into view just as we celebrate the festival of Hanukkah, the time when the Jews fought both their enemies and their internal demons to secure their religious freedom and restore Jewish sovereignty over Jerusalem.
End of year speculation
The civil year of 2024 is drawing to a close.
For the non-Jewish world, it is usually a time of festive hoopla accompanied by an excess of liquid refreshments, overzealous party celebrations and fireworks. Politicians and media editors, among others, will add in their unsolicited prognostications as to what can be expected in the coming twelve months.
If elections are scheduled in the new year one can guarantee that the outlook will be bright and sunny. If polls have just concluded there will likely be doom and gloom with blame for a disastrous economic situation laid at the feet of a previous administration.
Those unfortunate enough to live in countries where real democracy is merely a mirage will listen to their leaders promising another year of struggle against wicked forces.
Certain themes remain constant.
Unfulfilled aims and objectives are always the fault of nefarious foes. These saboteurs of peace and progress are usually easily identifiable. Coded phrases such as colonialist oppressors, apartheid ethnic cleansers, climate destroyers, genocidal enablers leave no doubts as to which groups these anarchists and rent a mob rioters are referring.
Will 2025 be an improvement on this year?
As far as Israel and the Jewish People generally are concerned, it seems that the signs and omens do not look promising. No amount of optimistic “pie in the sky” mirages or plaintive yearnings for “lights at the end of the proverbial tunnel” can disguise the trends as the world switches years.
True, we pray daily for a time when the world will finally witness peace and justice but until that blessed time arrives it behooves us to be on our guard and prepared for all eventualities.
The latest end-of-year intentions articulated by all and sundry must serve as a guide to what the near future holds.
All hostages held by Hamas must be unconditionally released. That should be the first order of business.
Undoubtedly, one of the top priorities facing Israel and, indeed, all democracies is dealing with Iranian ambitions to achieve nuclear weapons status. It is painfully obvious that Israel cannot rely on the UN or any of its associated bodies to thwart Iranian plans to eradicate the “Zionist entity.” The IAEA has already conceded that Iran is a threshold state and basically has thrown in the towel. Apart from pious pontifications, nobody else is prepared to act.
Biden’s Presidency promised firm action to prevent a nuclear breakout. All that transpired was the release of billions of dollars to the mullah regime. Shooting down a few missiles and drones aimed at Israel does not qualify for any sort of kudos when the root of the poison is not eliminated.
The Houthis, whose terror designation was cancelled by Biden, continue to launch missiles and drones against Israeli civilians. Iran supplies these weapons to them and no doubt is involved in logistical support. Piracy on the high seas continues unabated and the Houthis promise more of the same in the coming year. It is obvious that in the absence of any other meaningful response, Israel will once again have to take action, which in turn will precipitate the wrath of the corrupt UN.
The only potential bright spot on the horizon is the advent on 20 January of the Trump Administration. We can only hope that this will inject an urgent sense of reality and result in those hitherto immune from retribution receiving a very strong message they will greatly regret.
If the declarations of the following suspects are to be believed we are facing a year of continued malign malaise.
The Syrian jihadist rebels who overthrew Assad’s tyranny are being hailed in certain appeasement quarters as the harbingers of a new Arab spring. Those falling over themselves to embrace these groups naturally ignore their stated agenda. In a recent declaration they vowed “that from here to Jerusalem we are coming for Jerusalem. Patience to the people of Gaza.”
We ignore these warning signs at our peril. Not dealing with such threats at the very beginning can be fatal as 7 October 2023 and Hezbollah violations have already proven. The fact that Hamas was one of the first to congratulate the jihadists on “achieving freedom and justice” must surely go down as one of the biggest ironies of the outgoing year.
Abbas, the eternal President of the PA, continues his incitement. No doubt reinvigorated by his Papal audience and benediction, he has ended the year by accusing Israel of “daily massacres, genocide, starvation and expulsions.” Knowing that this diatribe of lies will fall on fertile international ground he then asserted that only by the creation of a Palestinian State will security and stability be achieved in the region.
The Irish Government didn’t need any encouragement to help propagate these falsehoods because it had already decided to demand that the ICJ at The Hague widen its definition of genocide in order to condemn Israel.
Concurrently, the Polish Government announced that it would arrest Israel’s Prime Minister should he dare to visit Auschwitz on the 80th anniversary of its liberation. Symptomatic of the sick state of affairs which now exists is the fact that this bizarre announcement elicited no responses of outrage. Australia, New Zealand and other democracies have already said that they would do the same. These same countries’ leaders then express amazement and fake outrage when outbreaks of hate against Jewish communities take place.
What is being taught in schools and universities and being preached in mosques, all have an important bearing on subsequent actions. In Scotland, for example, it has been revealed that classroom material published by the largest teachers’ union is riddled with hostile depictions of Israel. Is it any wonder therefore that universities eventually become bastions of brainwashed students rioting and inciting against Jewish students and faculty?
Failure to tackle hate against Jews in schools and universities will result in increasingly lethal pogroms in 2025.
Judeophobia of one sort or another has always been an endemic feature of life in Russia. Czarist pogroms, expulsions and exclusions were followed by Communist Stalinist oppression and executions. Judaism was repressed and the study of Hebrew prohibited. Under the Czars, the Russian Orthodox Church was a willing partner in the persecution of the Jews. The fall of Communism raised hopes for a better future and the emigration of Russian Jews to Israel and elsewhere engendered optimism.
Those who warned that there was no future for Jews in countries soaked with Jewish blood were ridiculed as fearmongers. Well, it looks like some old ghosts are once again haunting the Russian political landscape. It was reported this week that President Putin accused Jews of “attacking the Russian Orthodox Church. The Church is being tortured” The oldest trick in the book is to find a convenient scapegoat when policies go disastrously wrong. Historically, the Jews have always been the chosen group and it sounds very much as though history is about to be repeated.
Blaming Jews is not, of course, confined to Russia. The UN Special Rapporteur, Francesca Albanese, declared this week that “countries which continue to support Israel following 7 October are destroying the planet.” There you have it in plain simple language from an official of the UN. No wonder the lunatic mobs run riot worldwide.
It’s the old and ancient canard accusing Jews of being responsible for all evil afflicting humanity.
Right on cue, as it has been for the last few years, is the media reporting about Xmas in Bethlehem. Doom filled reports about the festival being cancelled and the lack of tourists abound. Naturally, the chosen culprits, yet again, are the evil Jews and Israelis. They alone are responsible. In actual fact Bethlehem is now home to only a tiny percentage of Christian Arabs. The majority have been driven out by Islamic extremists. Abbas and the PA may cry crocodile tears but it is their policies which have resulted in a Christian exodus. Unmentioned of course is the fact that Christians in Israel are free from persecution. In Haifa, for example, Xmas celebrations are bigger and brighter than ever now that Hezbollah missiles have ceased falling.
The coming year will no doubt see further unfolding dramatic events.
If past appeasement and hypocrisy are replaced with determined action, the future should look brighter for all who champion freedom, democracy and justice.
How One Sri Lankan Wants to Change the Narrative About Israel
The country has 22 million people. The majority are Buddhist, with Hindu, Christian, and Muslim minorities. Her team works tirelessly across the nation, to muster support across cultures for the Jewish State, which she hopes will eventually “change diplomatic policy and forge an alliance with Israel.”
Elangasekara’s passion for Israel began back in 2000, when she was a law student, but it became full-time when she began the Israel Sri Lanka Solitary Movement in 2019. Since then, it has garnered a lot of attention at the local level. She explained that many among Sri Lanka’s Buddhist majority are pro-Israel.
Elangasekara notably held a gathering on the 75th anniversary of Israeli independence, and another one after the October 7th massacre, where participants planted 1,200 trees to symbolize the lives lost.
“My goal is to reach the grassroots in Sri Lanka,” she said. “We have to change the distorted biased negative narrative the world upholds. There needs to be a gathering of nations around Israel and for Israel.”
Indigenous Vedda chiefs have attended her events, as have others in Sri Lanka.
“Sri Lanka and the Jewish world have had ties for many millennia” She said. “I can’t explain why our people and my staff have such a faithful passion for Israel, through several decades.”
Although Sri Lanka’s last Jew is believed to have died in 2016, there has been a historic Jewish presence there, according to sources, and it is believed that they all assimilated over time.
One of her team members, Krishantha Rathnaweera, said that his unexplainable love for Israel “just manifested when he was 12,” and he has been very supportive since.
Also notable in her work is hosting students and trying to use education to build an appreciation for Israel in the next generation.
There has been pressure on Sri Lanka to shut down Israeli embassies due to protests from pro-Palestinian agitators. Everyone in her group opposed the move, however. “Our histories are intertwined and there is much potential we can reach together,” she argued.
“When non-Jews spread the truth about Israel, it might be impactful” she suggested. She lamented that the lack of support and collaboration from Israelis has been discouraging to her team, as they have done a lot of dedicated work to improve the bonds. They hope this will change eventually.
She cited sectors that could improve if the nations had better bilateral ties, such as agriculture, archaeology, healthcare, and education. She also said that ongoing defense collaboration for the security of Israelis in Asia could be improved. There was recently a major threat against Israelis in the country.
Her team invites Israeli tourists to come visit her office to see what they’re doing firsthand to improve the relationship. Elangasekara feels that they can create a strong support base among the “Buddhist belt in Asia” and beyond.
How Mossad’s masterstrokes helped Israel reshape the Middle East
Officially, the Assad regime fell on December 8 when rebel forces seized Damascus in a swift offensive that lasted just over a week. But the countdown to Syria’s collapse – and with it, the erosion of Iran’s influence in the region – began much earlier, on September 17.
On that day and the next, thousands of pagers – hand-held communications devices used by Hezbollah – as well as radio gear exploded simultaneously across Lebanon and Syria. The operation, orchestrated by Israel’s Mossad, was one of the most astonishing feats of intelligence in modern history. It can also be described as the largest targeted killing with minimal collateral damage in the war against terrorism. “It’s a reworking of the Trojan Horse story for the digital age,” wrote Michael Doran of the US-based think tank Hudson Institute.
This unprecedented operation triggered a chain reaction. It paved the way for Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon, regime change in Syria, a blow to Iran’s ambitions of Middle Eastern dominance and, ultimately, a reassertion of Israel’s military supremacy by the end of 2024.
“We began planning the operation a decade ago,” a senior Mossad official who was privy to the mission told me. “It was part of a continuum, building on operations that go back half a century.”
Israeli intelligence – Mossad and Aman’s signal intelligence Unit 8200 (akin to the NSA in the US or GCHQ in the UK) – recognised the importance of intercepting enemy communications as far back as 60 years ago.
During the Six-Day War in June 1967, Israel intercepted a phone call between Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Jordan’s King Hussein. Later, however, intelligence warnings from planted devices in Egypt about an impending attack were ignored, leading to the surprise assault on Yom Kippur in October 1973.
Twelve years later, Unit 8200 intercepted a phone conversation between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and a leader of a small Palestinian group that hijacked Achille Lauro, a passenger ship in the Mediterranean.
From those lessons, Israel expanded its intelligence capabilities, tapping into undersea communication cables near Arab states in the Mediterranean, including Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Libya.
Following the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah – bolstered by Iranian expertise – discovered Israeli bugging and infiltration methods. It learnt that Israel’s Unit 504 of the Military Intelligence (MI) and Mossad had recruited informants within Alfa, Lebanon’s primary mobile network. Dozens of Lebanese were arrested in 2010, including Alfa executive Charbel Qazzi, who worked for Israeli intelligence for 15 years. He gleaned information from his position in the transmission section of Alfa’s network, enabling Israeli troops to locate and kill Hezbollah activists during that war.
To counter such breaches, Hezbollah and Iran established independent, supposedly secure communication networks. But Israel’s intelligence community adapted quickly.
Mossad and Unit 81 of MI – known for its cutting-edge technological innovations – began developing a solution. Agents were sent to Beirut to study Hezbollah’s new communication tools. Others mapped the group’s supply chain. Five years ago, they identified Taiwan-based Gold Apollo as the manufacturer of the AR-924 pagers – devices that receive text messages wirelessly but cannot make calls.
Mossad infiltrated Gold Apollo by gaining its trust, establishing legitimate business relationships, and creating front companies in Hungary, Bulgaria and elsewhere in Europe. These shell companies built a reputation by working with real customers, securing glowing references for their reliability.
Finally, in early 2024, Mossad agents made their move. In cooperation with the IDF’s operations department and Israeli state-owned security manufacturers, they offered discounted equipment to Hezbollah’s procurement network, supplying AR-924 pagers rigged with miniature, undetectable explosives. In September, the devices were remotely detonated in one synchronised strike.
Until that point, Hezbollah had held the upper hand in the war. Following Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 – an event that stunned Israeli intelligence and military leadership – Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, opened a second front in solidarity.
In hindsight, Nasrallah made two critical errors. His first was his decision to attack Israel. His second was to confine his assault to missile and drone strikes instead of also deploying ground forces.
“If Hezbollah had launched a ground invasion alongside Hamas, they could have reached Tiberias and the Sea of Galilee. Israel would have difficulties repelling simultaneous offensives in both the north and south,” a senior IDF officer told me.
Instead, over 11 months, Hezbollah launched 15,000 rockets, missiles and drones targeting Israeli military bases, intelligence hubs, Mossad headquarters north of Tel Aviv, airfields and civilian communities. Seventy thousand Israelis were evacuated, becoming refugees in their own land.
The IDF retaliated with devastating airstrikes, levelling villages in southern Lebanon. More crucially, Israel systematically eliminated hundreds of Hezbollah’s mid and upper-ranking commanders. These precision strikes were enabled by years of painstaking intelligence gathering; from recruited Lebanese agents to intercepted communications.
A few days after the astounding pagers operation, Israeli intelligence had another major success. It discovered the location of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s “chief of staff”, and killed him in his hideout in Beirut with an airstrike.
Then, Israel inflicted an even more devastating blow by using a tip from an agent to assassinate Nasrallah. It was possible because the Israeli intelligence community managed to obtain the engineering and construction drawings and layouts of Nasrallah’s underground command centre.
The charismatic Nasrallah was the undisputed leader of Hezbollah. With financial support and arms supplies from Iran, Nasrallah extended his influence beyond Lebanon. Hezbollah rushed to support Assad in Syria, trained Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen, and developed personal relations with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“Hezbollah was like an open book for us,” the senior IDF officer added. “We knew the names, addresses and daily routines of their commanders and leaders.”
Following the decapitation of Hezbollah’s top leaders, the movement’s members were paralysed, confused, disoriented and demoralised. IDF invaded south Lebanon with little resistance. Pounding its troops, command centres and arms stockpiles, including those containing long-range missiles, Hezbollah was forced to compromise and agree on November 17 to a 60-day ceasefire. Nearly 70 per cent of its armaments were destroyed.
The military force of Hezbollah, as well as Hamas in Gaza before, has practically evaporated.
This is part of the new reality emerging in the Middle East. The most important development is the Iranian predicament. It is an Israeli consensus, binding together left and right, that Iran is defined as the “octopus head”. It has sent its arms to all corners of the region, embarked on the path to becoming a threshold nuclear state, and cultivated its proxies in Lebanon, Syria Iraq, and Yemen to encircle Israel with a “ring of fire”.
In April, Iran went the extra mile. In response to an Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Iranian general in charge of Lebanon and Syria, Iran decided, for the first time, to directly confront Israel militarily.
Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones against Israel. The entire Israeli population found itself in shelters for hours. Yet the Iranian attack turned out to be a colossal failure. For years, IDF generals estimated that Hezbollah and Iranian missile and drone strikes would cause unprecedented damage, killing thousands and inflicting widespread destruction.
They were wrong. Israeli air defences – Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow – in collaboration with US, UK, Jordanian, Saudi and other Western coalition forces, repelled the Iranian attack. Only four Iranian missiles reached their target, causing minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev desert, which houses squadrons of IAF F-35 “stealth” warplanes.
In October, Israel retaliated by mounting a massive attack against Iran, primarily using warplanes firing precision-guided missiles from hundreds of kilometres away.
The strikes destroyed most of Iran’s air defences, including several Russian-made S-300 batteries and one S-400 system, the most advanced in the Iranian arsenal. The IAF also attacked the Parchin military base, where Iran was developing explosives for its nuclear programme.
The Israeli attack proved that Iranian boasting about its advanced technologies was self-deception. Iranian military, political, and religious leaders faced a new reality: they had been penetrated and exposed by Israel’s advanced technology and military supremacy.
The culmination of the defeats of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran was supplemented by the surprising toppling of Assad’s regime. Islamist rebels, supported and armed by Turkey, took Damascus by storm within a week. Assad escaped to Moscow with hundreds of millions of dollars and gold bullion without making a real attempt to fight back. His defeat is evidence that rotten and corrupt regimes are bound to collapse.
Yet, Israeli intelligence was again surprised by the rapid developments. Nevertheless, it quickly rose to the occasion and took advantage of the political, military and strategic vacuum created.
Within three days, the Israeli Air Force destroyed Syria’s warplanes, naval bases, missile depots, air defences and – no less important – residual chemical weapons. Israeli security agencies had precise intelligence, gathered over many years, about the locations and targets of the Syrian army. It was a fast and swift operation. The truth, however, is that Syria’s weapons were rusty, outdated and poorly maintained. Israeli pilots participating in the strikes admitted that “it felt like a military drill. The enemy was not present.”
In that sense, the fate of the Assad regime is a manifestation of a poetic justice that shows that the desire of people to be free and liberated cannot be suppressed for ever. Their will is stronger than dictators who rule over corrupt and dysfunctional regimes, be they in Iran, the Soviet Union, Afghanistan or Syria.
Iran under the ayatollahs may eventually face the same fate. History repeatedly shows that when such regimes crumble, it happens overnight – so suddenly and unexpectedly it often surprises even the most knowledgeable espionage services, such as the CIA, NSA and Mossad.
It is clear that Israel is emerging victorious, while Iran, Hezbollah and Russia have been defeated. Syria was a key link in Iran’s axis of evil, which includes Hezbollah, pro-Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. All of them were supported by Russia, which has destabilised the Middle East.
As a cautionary measure, the IDF took over Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border and the 100km-long and 3km-wide buffer zone separating Israel and Syria on the Golan Heights.
Following the dramatic developments in Syria, the intelligence communities of Israel, the United States, and other Western countries are concerned now that Iran may break out – that is, produce enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon and assemble such weapons.
According to the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, Iran has already accumulated more than 100 kilograms of enriched uranium to a level of 60 per cent. There is no scientific justification for enrichment at such a level to advance a civilian programme, meaning the only explanation is that it is intended to be used for nuclear weapons. In a short time, a matter of a few weeks, Iran can accelerate the rate and enrich the uranium from 60 per cent to 90 per cent, which would provide fissile material sufficient to assemble five bombs.
Intelligence experts believe that the acceleration of the uranium enrichment rate reflects Iran’s concerns about the impending change of the US administration on January 20. It appears that Iran is preparing for the possibility that, upon Donald Trump’s entry into the White House, he will impose even more severe and crippling sanctions, not only to hurt its economy but also to cause the fall of the regime.
To prevent this possibility and to ensure the regime’s survival, Iran is striving to reach a situation in which it can announce within a week or two that it has succeeded in assembling nuclear weapons. Tehran’s assumption is that in such a scenario, the US will be deterred from attacking it.
Indeed, Iran is seriously discussing assembling nuclear weapons this time to serve, like in North Korea, as an insurance policy for the survival and perseverance of the regime.
At the same time, there is growing concern in the West that the Netanyahu-led government will try to take advantage of Tehran’s weakness and regional isolation to order the air force to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Yet, a former senior Mossad official who is familiar with Israeli strategic thinking told me that it is very unlikely that Israel alone will strike Iranian nuclear sites, unless such a move is sanctioned by Trump.
When Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar planned and executed his brutal massacre on October 7, 2023, he hoped to trigger a wider chain reaction that would inflict carnage and overwhelming chaos on Israel and change the face of the Middle East.
Sinwar’s plan worked – except in reverse. Israel and the region are facing a new reality. But in order to fully utilise the new emerging order in the Middle East, the right-wing Netanyahu government must also change its policy. It’s not only a moral duty to release the hostages from Gaza. It is a strategic imperative. The government also has a duty to heal the divisions in the Israeli society, which were among the reasons that led Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran to mistakenly believe that Israel has lost its fighting spirit and could be an easy prey.
Yossi Melman is an Israeli intelligence and security writer and co-author of ‘Spies Against Armageddon’
A letter to the Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski
Dear Your Excellency, Radosław Sikorski, foreign minister of the Republic of Poland:
Or do you mind if I call you Radek?
We don’t know each other well, but we’ve met, and you’ve been a guest on my “Foreign Podicy” podcast.
So I’m going to be informal. And I’m going to ask you a few questions.
To wit: What the hell are you thinking?
You know what I’m talking about.
On Jan. 27, there will be a commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp, where roughly 1 million Jews were slaughtered by the Nazis.
Your deputy foreign minister said last week that if Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel, shows up, he’ll be arrested for alleged “crimes against humanity” pursuant to a warrant issued in November by the International Criminal Court, or ICC.
Seriously?
Look, Radek, you’re a smart guy, but you’re not seeing the big picture.
Right now, two free nations are fighting brutal defensive wars.
As you well know, Vladimir Putin wants to make Ukrainians subjects of the Russian empire, which for several decades was disingenuously rebranded as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
The other free nation under attack is, of course, Israel. Iran’s ruler, Ali Khamenei, wants to exterminate Israelis and fold their land into an Islamic empire disingenuously branded as the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Two months ago, Mr. Putin and Mr. Khamenei announced their intention to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” meaning closer military cooperation with Tehran — meaning Iran sending Russia more Iranian drones and missiles to kill Ukrainian men, women and children.
In October, the Israeli military knocked out much of Iran’s missile production facilities, limiting the supply that will be available to Mr. Putin.
For that, might you want to give Mr. Netanyahu a pat on the back rather than a slap in the face?
Now, let’s get political. The incoming Trump administration will be the most pro-Israel in history — the same of the Republican-controlled House and Senate.
European animus toward Israel is among the reasons some Republicans are advising President-elect Donald Trump to leave it to the European Union to save Ukraine — or not.
Of course, you understand that if Mr. Putin prevails in Ukraine, his troops and tanks will soon be on your border — and maybe making tracks over your border.
Under Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, the U.S. would be committed to assisting in your country’s defense. Do you think Mr. Putin won’t test the strength of that commitment?
I suspect you will repeat what your deputy said: “We are obliged to respect the provisions of the International Criminal Court.”
Here are three reasons you’re not obliged.
One: The arrest warrants against Mr. Netanyahu were issued by ICC prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan based on disinformation he was only too happy to receive from Hamas and other terrorist proxies of Iran.
Two: For the ICC to issue warrants against the leader of a nation that is not a member of the ICC — such as Israel — violates the treaty under which the ICC was established. So the ICC’s warrants represent an illegal usurpation of power.
Three: Mike Waltz, Mr. Trump’s incoming national security adviser, pointed out: “First it’s the leaders of Israel’s democracy, then it’s the leader of any democracy that doesn’t fit the ICC’s agenda.”
In fact, the ICC already has an open investigation of the U.S. — even though the U.S. has also declined to join.
So you’re really saying that Poland is “obliged to respect” the ICC but not the U.S. Do you think that’s wise?
Let me remind you that in his first term, Mr. Trump issued an executive order threatening sanctions against anyone participating in ICC investigations or arrests of Americans, Israelis and others who do not recognize the ICC’s authority.
President Biden rescinded that order. I’ll bet you a zloty it will be revived next year.
Finally, do you not grasp that the Israelis are doing what is necessary to deter and hopefully defeat their enemies?
Isn’t that what you’ve been advocating for Ukrainians — that they be given a chance to fight hard enough to make Mr. Putin back off?
Over the past year and to the surprise of most experts, the Israelis have largely incapacitated Hamas, Hezbollah and their patron in Iran. They achieved these results while scrupulously abiding by international law.
If you don’t get that, read the assessments by John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at West Point, and retired British Col. Richard Kemp, who has been on the battlefields of Gaza for months.
Their bottom line: The Israeli military has done more to minimize civilian casualties than any army in history
You should also be familiar with ex-paratrooper and former Sandhurst senior lecturer Andrew Fox. The bottom line of the report he recently pulled together for the Henry Jackson Society in Britain: The Israelis have succeeded in that effort as never before in an urban conflict — despite Hamas’ blatantly illegal practice of using civilians as humans shields.
The report finds that the facts have been egregiously misrepresented by much of the media.
Final question: Why is Mr. Khan, the prosecutor, propagating the lie that Mr. Netanyahu has been committing “crimes against humanity”?
Final answer: Because this is the form antisemitism takes in the 21st century.
Consider what you will be saying about Poland if you effectively bar the prime minister of the small, genocidally threatened nation-state of the Jewish people from a commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz, where genocidal antisemitism reached its zenith in the 20th century.
Please call me anytime to discuss this or other issues. Until then,
Slava Ukraini!
Cliff
• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times.
Major IDF change: “See-and-Shoot” systems.
Another major change the IDF will make is to the so-called “See-and-Shoot” systems on the border fence – the remote-operated machine guns and grenade launchers. On 10/7, the IDF realized that each post on the Gaza border only had one control pod for the weapons systems assigned…
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) December 24, 2024
Shocking report on hell experienced by hostages rescued from Gaza: Starved, hair pulled out, beaten all over body
Calling for the release of the hostages at Hostages Square in Tel Avivi (Photo: Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
zNeglect, torture and humiliation: The Ministry of Health has recently completed work on a draft special report that includes hard-hitting testimonies from the hostages who were released in the previous deal or rescued from Hamas captivity in Gaza. Once the work on the report is complete, it will be transferred to the Justice Ministry and presented to the United Nations committee that deals with torture.
According to the draft, some of the hostages experienced a very large weight loss, and they experienced starvation and malnutrition. In adults, this was reflected in a loss of 8 to 15 kilograms, and in children there was an average loss of 10% of their pre-captivity weight, in some cases a loss of 18% of their weight. The report noted that this loss has significant consequences, such as “muscle breakdown and a weakened immune system. As a result of appalling hygiene, and unclean water, hostages suffered from stomach pains and diarrhea during their time in captivity. All of this has serious psychological consequences, certainly when it comes to children.”
PA Sen. Saval Gives $5 MIL. of state funds to Al Aqsa Islamic Society/Academy
Australian journalist Erin Molan shares a more personal side in interview with Israel’s Ynetnews
Australian journalist Erin Molan reveals a more personal side in this FULL INTERVIEW with Israel’s Ynetnews, during her current trip to Israel with an AIJAC delegation. Reflecting on the wisdom of her late father, Major General Jim Molan, Former Senator and Senior Officer in the Australian Army, Erin shares how his words inspired her to speak up for Israel.
