Jerusalem – The leading contender for the head of Kadima, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, may demand of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that he go on leave if she is elected party chairwoman today and allow her to conduct affairs of the state.

Sources in the Prime Minister’s bureau explained that although Mr. Olmert is determined to resign, he would continue to head the transition government in the coming months.

“Olmert is not going anywhere,” said a source who asked not to be named, “He is not going to take a holiday nor will he declare himself incapacitated.” ?

But others see conflicts possible, should Ms. Livni be elected:

“Livni will not agree to serve in a government with two heads,” sources close to her said. “It doesn’t make sense. An absurd situation could develop in which Livni is chairwoman of the biggest party, which is supposed to dictate policy, while Olmert is prime minister representing himself, and he even wants to conduct peace negotiations. What will happen if there is a conflict between the two of them? Where would that lead?

“Suppose the prime minister wants to promote a quick agreement with Syria. Livni has already said that in her view the Palestinian issue has priority. It is clear that if she is elected she, not the prime minister, who is going home, has to decide what will happen. Who will go to meet McCain or Obama after the election in America? Who will decide on internal matters? Who will convene the Knesset faction? Who will have the formal authority? It is an unnatural and unhealthy situation. ?

“An even more serious situation could arise. Suppose a decision is made to indict Olmert. The prime minister will be given a hearing and will go through the entire process, while Livni, is she is elected party chairwoman, will not be able to function as prime minister. For Olmert to hang on to his seat like this is neither right nor dignified.”?

Mr. Olmert announced at the end of July that he would resign when the Kadima primary was over. If there is a quick victory, he said, would submit a letter of resignation, which will constrain in the role of head of a transition government, until the winner can form a government, or until elections are held. In such a situation he could remain in office for many months, creating a twin-governmental structure, something that Ms. Livni’s aides wish to avoid, if she wins the primary.

If the prime minister goes on leave, and declares himself incapacitated, Ms. Livni and her associates, or Shaul Mofaz and his associates, if he is elected, is expected to heave a sigh of relief.

In such a case the government will immediately, on the same day, elect his successor, who can direct affairs of state, without squabbles with the outgoing prime minister. The replacement can also enter the next election in the position of an incumbent prime minister, and it is clear that such a candidate has an enormous electoral advantage. ?

“In April 1977, after the affair of the dollar bank account, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin announced that he would not be the candidate who would lead the Labor Party in the coming elections. Since he could not resign from a transition government, he announced that he was taking leave and that Shimon Peres would replace him. That is what Olmert ought to do tomorrow evening,” Livni’s associates concluded.

Indeed, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held a meeting with PA Chairman Abbas at noon yesterday.

The heads of the negotiating teams, Ms. Livni and Mr. Abu Ala, were not invited and did not attend the meeting.

Unconfirmed reports are that Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas will try to agree on a document summing up the understandings achieved until now, in preparation for Mr. Abbas’ meeting with President Bush next week in Washington.

Whatever the case, Mr. Olmert, who announced last Thursday that he would “resign without manipulations,” acts as he will be a most active transitional prime minister of a caretaker government Mr. Olmert often repeats his pledge to President Bush to establish a sovereign Palestinian state before the end of the calendar year, and his aides indicate that this is the reason why he will do everything possible to not budge from his position.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008

Jerusalem – Today, Israelis will vote for a new chairperson of Kadima to replace Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Olmert, who is now under investigation for a variety of charges of betraying the public trust.

A Ma’ariv poll of Kadima party members held on Monday showed that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni led Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, though by a smaller margin than Friday.

Ms. Livni was shown to be ahead 42.5 percent versus 30.4 percent in the present poll, as opposed to a_19 percent margin last week.

Among voters who said they were certain they would vote, the margin rose to over 16 percent: 45.3 percent for Foreign Minister Livni versus 28.8 percent for Mr. Mofaz.

Fighting In The Field, Building A Coalition

Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz is focusing most of his efforts in trying to prove that in addition to his great strength in the field, he is the one who will be able to form a strong coalition after the elections.

Mr. Mofaz’ campaign is focusing on the assertion that he, in contrast to Ms. Livni, could form a government and would not lead the political establishment to elections. “I have reached understandings with Shas,” he said yesterday very explicitly.

The Shas was founded as a political party in 1984 and is seen as the first Israeli political party to succeed in organizing an effective political force for Jewish Israelis who came to Israel from Middle Eastern countries, also known as Sephardic Jews.

Mr. Mofaz continued, “I intend to form a broad coalition based on the current coalition. I have held talks with leaders of factions in the coalition and outside of it.” It is believed that Mr. Mofaz said this knowing that Shas, the Orthodox Sephardic political party plans to harden its position vis--vis Ms. Livni.

Industry and Trade Minister Eli Yishai met with Mr. Mofaz after the cabinet meeting on Sunday after Mr. Mofaz said that he was not prepared to confirm that there were understandings between them, and certainly that there was no agreement about how the future coalition agreement would look, should Mr. Mofaz win.

Even after members of Mr. Mofaz’s campaign put heavy pressure on senior Shas officials to say that understandings exist, Shas continued to insist that these were only feelers. More requests and repeated attempts at persuasion by a number of senior Mofaz aides did not help.

Senior Shas officials also explained that although Mr. Mofaz had made promises, they were not convinced that he would actually carry them out, and so nothing has been settled.

The Shas know that the main issue on the negotiating table, should Mr. Mofaz win, is the renewal of the child allowance system, which was cancelled five years ago. This system provided a substantive monthly grant for every child, something which a large religious family appreciates.

Ms. Livni is seen as holding an obvious advantage in the Tel Aviv region.

In the city of Rishon Lezion, where there are more than 5,000 registered voters, Mr. Mofaz has an advantage because of the support of the main activists and because of Mayor Meir Nitzan.

In Netanya, Mr. Mofaz is running strong. In Haifa, too, Mr. Mofaz is strong, as most of the activists there are with him.

Mr. Mofaz is leading in Ashdod, since the main activists and the port’s workers committee support him. In Beer Sheva, the battle is close; but apparently Ms. Livni has an advantage. In Eilat too, the battle is between the municipal activists and the port workers.

In Ashkelon, Ms. Livni has an advantage since the main vote broker in the city, Itamar Shimoni, supports her. This is also the case in Upper Nazareth, where she is supported by the deputy mayor. In Petah Tikva, the main registration official, Levy Shetrit, supports Mr. Mofaz, while officials at Ms. Livni’s headquarters claim that despite this, they believe that they are capable of obtaining many votes in the city.

Official results are expected by early tomorrow morning.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008

Jerusalem – A missile was fired Sunday at Sderot by Palestinians in Gaza into an open area inside the city, causing a fire to break out in a thorn field. A man, a woman and a child went into shock and were taken to Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon.

Israeli security officials assessed that this was not an escalation but rather an isolated incident, while telling the Israeli media that if it should become apparent that this was not the case-the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would act accordingly.

It should be noted that last Thursday a bomb was detonated for the first time in several months against an IDF force patrolling close to the border fence in Gaza.

None of the soldiers on patrol near Gaza were injured, but damage was caused to the fence.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

Jerusalem – Yesterday, Israel’s daily Maariv newspaper published a short interview with former CIA Director and former U.S. Secretary of Defense Dr. James Schlesinger, who offered Israel dire warnings.

“Israel will face the most severe existential threat in its history in the next year,” Dr. Schlesinger told Maariv, adding, “I would expect the Israelis to choose for their leadership the people with the greatest experience in national security.”

His prediction came as Israel prepares to elect a new prime minister due to the anticipated early departure of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert who is facing corruption charges.

Dr. Schlesinger spoke also as the former U.S. secretary of energy, and one of the foremost experts in the U.S. on employing nuclear force and the nuclear balance of power. He had earned this distinction as secretary of defense during the Yom Kippur War. He is considered a conservative Republican and a security expert.

He also is a convert from Judaism who left his faith during his college years.

He was pressed further by the interviewer for Maariv.

“Do you recommend that Israel act alone against the Iranian nuclear program?” the Maariv reporter asked him.

He didn’t bite: “I am not recommending to the Israeli government what to do,” he said. “That is what you have a government for. I can only tell you that in the past 60 years, Israel has survived because it knew how to meet security challenges, because it was attentive to them and they were at the center of its agenda. Now the toughest security challenge of all is rising up in front of you. The Iranian regime, armed with nuclear weapons, means an existential danger. You must not make light of it. In such days, there must be people with experience in this field at the helm.”

The current U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently appointed Dr. Schlesinger to head a special task force to examine the needs of the United States in the area of nuclear security, and mainly aerial security of the nuclear arms standing at the disposal of the U.S.

Dr. Schlesinger submitted his recommendations over the past few days. They were firm: Invest resources in renewing, updating and retaining American nuclear capability with regard to the air branch, he said.

Mr. Gates’ team has determined this ability has rusted and been neglected in the past years, since the end of the Cold War. Mr. Gates and his team have concluded that now that a new Cold War seems to be in motion, the party is over, and it’s time to get back to work.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

It is now confirmed that Mahmoud Abbas, will continue to serve as Palestinian president even after January 2009, which is when his legal term in office is scheduled to end.

Mr. Abbas had inherited the dual position from Yassir Arafat as the head of the Palestinian Authority in January 2005, and the Palestine Liberation Organization in November 2004, following Mr. Arafat’s death in November 2004.

Senior Palestinian sources said that Mr. Abbas’ decision had been made despite Hamas’ announcement that it would not recognize Mr. Abbas as president and would demand that elections be held as soon as possible.

Instead, Mr. Abbas had held a number of consultations with Arab heads of state and earned their full support for his continued term as Palestinian president.

Mr. Abbas was warned by a number of the Arab leaders that he would do best were he to refrain from holding elections, which were liable to give Hamas the presidency as well.

In the past number of months, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been urging Mr. Abbas to appoint a vice president, lest his departure leave a political vacuum that would then be filled by Hamas.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

The political echelon in Jerusalem is angry because U.S. Consul General Jacob Walles said that Israel had agreed in principle to relinquish control of all areas of Jerusalem that it had annexed in 1967, following the 1967 war.

Jerusalem had been divided between Israel and Jordan from 1948 until 1967. While Muslims and Christians were allowed access to the areas under Israeli control in Jerusalem, no Jews were allowed access to areas in Jerusalem under Arab control for that entire 19-year period.

According to statements made by the U.S. consul, Israel and the PLO had agreed that a permanent status arrangement would be based on the 1967 lines in Jerusalem. He said this in an interview to the Palestinian al-Ayyam daily published in Ramallah.

Mr. Walles said that in her last visit, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stressed to both sides that these parameters would be the basis of a permanent status arrangement.

Mr. Walles stressed that the intention is to end the conflict by the beginning of January 2009, when President Bush’s term ends.

Israeli government sources emphasize that not only were the consul’s remarks not true – but that the senior American diplomat had also broken an explicit promise given by the Americans not to comment publicly on the details of the negotiations in order not to jeopardize them.

Israeli government sources also said that the question of Jerusalem did not come up in the negotiations and was not on the negotiating table.

Israeli government sources labeled Mr. Walles’ remarks “irresponsible” and have asked for an American government denunciation of Mr. Walles. The Bulletin has not yet received a response to a query placed in this regard to the U.S. State Department.

U.S. State Department officials who have held the position of consul in Jerusalem have often gone on to work for the Arab cause.

Edward Abington, the U.S. consul in Jerusalem from 1993 until 1997, has been the official lobbyist for the PLO and the Palestinian Authority in Washington ever since leaving his term of office. His successor, Mr. Phillip Wilcox, now works became a lobbyist for a pro-Arab lobby group know as The Foundation For Middle East Peace.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Friday underwent medical tests at Tel Hashomer hospital, as part of the ongoing watch on the development of the cancer that he developed about a year ago.

The prime minister is suffering from prostate cancer, and his doctors recommended that he undergo surgery to remove the growth. Mr. Olmert decided not to have the operation and that is why he is under continuous supervision, The tests, which are relatively simple, do not require an anesthetic, and therefore there was no recourse to the procedure in which the prime minister hands over his authority to the deputy prime minister for a few hours. The tests were successful, but a source in Mr. Olmert’s bureau said the doctors have not yet submitted the results to the prime minister.

Whether or not Mr. Olmert’s days on earth are numbered is not known. However, it is believed Mr. Olmert’s days as head of state in Israel are definitely numbered.

On Thursday, on the eve of his MRI test, prime minister Olmert promised is Kadima political party that he would resign as Prime Minister immediately after the Kadima party chooses his successor on Wednesday.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

Jerusalem – Violence flared on Saturday after an Arab infiltrated the Jewish community of Yitzhar, set a house on fire and stabbed a 9-year-old boy before fleeing back to the neighboring Arab village of Asira Kabaliya.

Within an hour, 50 Yitzhar residents, some of them armed, ran into the Arab village, some of them shooting in the air. As a result, four Arabs were injured by that gunfire.

The Arab infiltrator was not caught. The boy who was stabbed is recovering in the hospital from four stab wounds in his back and his spine.

Residents in Yitzhar said that they were incensed by the ineptitude of the Israeli troops stationed around their community and by those soldiers’ failure to prevent the attack.

An Arab Member of Israeli Knesset, Ahmed Tibi, PLO leader Yassir Arafat’s former chief of staff, maintained that it was the Israeli security forces who encouraged the incursions into the Arab village. Appearing on the Voice of Israel Radio newsreel, Mr. Tibi described the residents of Yizhar as “two-legged animals, vigilantes who riot against the Palestinians, while the IDF turns a blind eye,” Mr. Tibi said.

Chairman of the “Council of Jewish Communities of Judea and Samaria,” Danny Dayan said the background to the event must be borne in mind. “They are dancing on the blood of a wounded Israeli 9-year-old boy, in an attempt to promote a political agenda,” he said. “Violence of any kind is unacceptable, but the fact that they totally ignore the attempted murder of a Jewish boy proves that they are not people of peace, but propagandists in the Palestinian cause.”

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com.

©The Bulletin 2008

Jerusalem – The Israel Intelligence Information Center reported that the terrorist organization Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV station in Lebanon has started broadcasting via an Indonesian satellite, after being taken off a Thai satellite.

The Indonesian satellite covers East Asia, China and Australia. Indonesia is a Muslim country, and critics say this will make it more difficult for the international community to fight incitement aired by Hezbollah.

About two months ago, Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV channel started broadcasting via an Indonesian communications satellite called PALAPA-C2. The satellite’s coverage includes, inter alia, China, East Asia and Australia.

A local newspaper in Perth, Australia published an article on Aug. 21 that reported that al-Manar’s broadcasts could be viewed across Australia.

According to the article, the channel airs talk shows and documentaries inciting against Israel and the West. The channel also airs children’s shows and music shows, and calls upon the viewers to donate to Hezbollah. The article further states that Australia’s minister of communications examines the legal aspect of the channel’s broadcasts in order to report to the government whether those broadcasts contradict the Australian law (according to which any channel which encourages viewers to join or support terrorist organizations should be banned).

The American embassy spokesman in Indonesia noted that the U.S. government was concerned about the use made by al-Manar of the Indonesian communications satellite, as the U.S. declared al-Manar a terrorist entity in December 2004. Indonesia’s Minister of Communications and Information Mohammad Nuh said that the broadcasts were “purely commercial” and that the U.S. had no right to meddle in the company’s affairs. He further stated that such TV channels as BBC also made use of satellites.

It should be noted that the Indonesian PALAPA-C2 is a third-generation communications satellite launched in 1996.

Owned by Indonesia Telkom, it is operated by the SATELINDO Group from Jakarta, Indonesia.

Most of Indonesia Telkom’s shares are held by the Indonesian government, which has the right to veto strategic decisions. The satellite is suited to the rainy weather in Indonesia and the surrounding region, so that it can broadcast with almost no interruptions. It provides video transmissions, cellular phone services and Internet access.

Back in August 2005, the activity of Asiasat, a communications satellite that broadcasted Hezbollah’s TV channel to Asian countries, was terminated. In addition, limitations were imposed on the channel’s broadcasts to the U.S., Europe and South America.

In January, the al-Manar channel started broadcasting via Thaisat, a communications satellite operated by a Thai company that covered Southeast Asia.

However, Thaicom officially announced that it was taking al-Manar off its satellite starting Jan. 11.

Now, however, Hezbollah has recovered from the blow it took in Thailand by broadcasting al-Manar via the Indonesian communications satellite.

The significance of this development is said to be that it now allows Hezbollah and Iran to improve the availability of al-Manar’s broadcasts of insurrection, particularly among Muslim target audiences in Southeast Asia, China and Australia.

It should also be noted that Palestinian terrorist organizations’ Web sites, such as those of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, now rely heavily on Indonesian Internet service providers, since some Western Internet companies have stopped servicing them.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com

©The Bulletin 2008