A day after the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was identified (Thursday), the prevailing assessment with Israeli leadership is that his brother, Muhammad Sinwar, will assume control of the terrorist organization in Gaza, including managing the Israeli hostage situation. This is according to a senior Israeli source speaking to Israel Hayom.

The source noted that Sinwar’s elimination opens up new possibilities for rescuing the hostages, stating that “efforts are ongoing to bring them home by any means possible.” However, they expressed pessimism regarding the chances of reaching a deal with Muhammad Sinwar, saying, “He is no less a redical than his brother and is an arch-terrorist like him.”

In light of Sinwar’s elimination, White House spokesperson John Kirby stated today that there are currently no negotiations for a hostage deal or a ceasefire in the Strip.

The senior official revealed that in the two weeks leading up to Sinwar’s elimination, signs had emerged suggesting a certain willingness within Hamas to compromise on the terms of a potential hostage deal, including backing out of their demand for Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi Route. The official assessed that this flexibility was driven by the reduction in supplies entering northern Gaza, which made it difficult for Hamas to maintain its civilian control in the area.

According to the official, Israel understands that dismantling Hamas’s civilian control over Gaza, and its control of incoming supplies from the world in particular, is key to achieving its war objectives. Against this backdrop, a new idea has emerged in the Prime Minister’s Office.

After previous attempts to distribute supplies through local hamulas (clans) and international aid organizations faced difficulties, the new proposal being considered involves private American companies being responsible for bringing aid through Israeli border crossings and distributing it to civilian centers in Gaza.

According to this model, the IDF would be responsible for security issues, ensuring that Hamas terrorists do not harm the employees of these private companies. However, soldiers themselves would not be involved in the actual food distribution.

On the broader issue, the senior official stated that Sinwar’s elimination would not bring an end to the war. “The objectives have not yet been achieved. Hamas still has military strength in the Strip, civilian control, and there are 101 hostages that need to be brought home.”

Meanwhile, a senior Hamas official abroad, Mahmoud Mardawi, told Qatar’s Al-Araby channel, “Our conditions for negotiating a hudna (ceasefire) will not change after Sinwar’s death. We will elect a new leader, and after that, we will consider all the ceasefire proposals. Our procedures will govern the selection of Yahya Sinwar’s successor at the head of the movement. The current situation is pushing to shorten the leadership election process. The election is a natural process and will not take long.”

A leading pro-Israel group is demanding that former U.S. Middle East envoy Dennis Ross retract his false allegation regarding Israel’s goals concerning Hamas.

Ross, a longtime U.S. envoy who is now a widely-quoted commentator on Mideast affairs, claimed to the New York Times on October 19 that Israel previously promised to stop firing at Hamas when its top leaders are dead.

“For Netanyahu and the Israeli military, this has always been the emblem of victory,” Ross claimed, referring to the elimination of Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar. “When you asked back in December or January, ‘What would victory look like?’ the Israeli government said, ‘When Sinwar and five or six other Hamas leaders are dead.”

But an exhaustive review by Americans For A Safe Israel (AFSI) of statements by Israeli government spokespeople during the past year has not uncovered any such assertion. On the contrary, the Israeli government has consistently said that the total defeat of the entire Hamas terrorist army is necessary to prevent Hamas from continuing to murder Jews.

AFSI National Chairman Moshe Phillips said:

“If Dennis Ross has evidence that Israel considered the elimination of seven Hamas leaders sufficient for victory, he should disclose it—otherwise, he should publicly apologize for his implausible allegation.

“Ross’s track record concerning Israel is deeply troubling. He has admitted that he pressured Israel to let Hamas import cement—the very cement that was used to build the Gaza terror tunnels. He claimed in 2014 that Hamas would soon ‘stop firing rockets’ at Israel because ‘its arsenal [will be] depleted.’ Now Ross is falsely depicting Israel as breaking its word regarding its war goals. He has demonstrated that he is too biased to be taken seriously as a commentator on Middle East affairs.”

 * * *

Established in 1970, Americans For A Safe Israel / AFSI is one of the oldest and most influential pro-Israel organizations in the United States. Its advocacy and education campaigns serve as a potent counterweight to the rising tide of Arab propaganda. AFSI is not affiliated with any political party in the United States or Israel.

A leading pro-Israel group is urging the Biden administration to stop sending weapons to the Palestinian Authority security forces, following the revelation that many of their members are involved in terrorism.

    A major Israeli think tank, Regavim, recently documented that the PA security forces list 2,000 of their members as “martyrs”—meaning they died while committing terrorism. In addition, fully 12% of all Palestinian Arab terrorists currently jailed in Israel are members of the PA security forces—approximately 500 out of the 4,500-5,000 jailed terrorists. Yet the Biden administration has been providing weapons and training for the PA security forces.

Moshe Phillips, National Chairman of Americans For A Safe Israel (AFSI), said:

“Instead of threatening America’s democratic ally, Israel, with an arms embargo, the Biden administration should be imposing an arms embargo on the Palestinian Authority. The PA has openly supported the October 7 massacres and many members of the PA security forces are involved in terrorism. That’s more than enough reason to stop giving them American weapons.”

Established in 1970, Americans For A Safe Israel / AFSI is one of the oldest and most influential pro-Israel organizations in the United States. Its advocacy and education campaigns serve as a potent counterweight to the rising tide of Arab propaganda. AFSI is not affiliated with any political party in the United States or Israel.

When we realized that it was a mistake to rely on American supplies of
one-ton bunker busters, we dug into our pockets to begin serial production
of a superior Israeli model.

That was only the beginning.

The Blinken-Austin letter threatening Israel with an arms embargo as the
Jewish State is in the middle of an intensive war can be expected to have a
lasting impact on Israeli arms planning.

We are already scrambling to produce a large portfolio of components and
ammunition, which until recently were received from Uncle Sam.

The scar left by the Blinken-Austin letter is so deep that no matter how the
White House behaves after the elections, or who gets sworn in next January,
Israeli defense procurement decisions will take into account the possibility
of a future arms embargo.

The embargo threat also serves to put the nail in the coffin for any future
“diplomatic” scheme that hinges on “ironclad guarantees” from America.

To be clear: it would have been better for us to reach these conclusions
without it being the product of the Biden Administration’s “two-by-four
treatment.”

But at least we can have the satisfaction of knowing that, in the long run,
the embargo threat will serve to dramatically improve Israeli defense
procurement decisions while avoiding nonsensical diplomatic arrangements
that hinge on “ironclad” American guarantees.
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

If the Jewish state doesn’t take a series of measures to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip within the next 30 days, it could risk “implications” for U.S. policy, potentially including an arms embargo, according to a letter from the U.S. defense and state secretaries leaked to Axios.

The letter, which Axios published on Tuesday, purports to come from Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, and Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary. It is addressed to Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, and Ron Dermer, the Israeli strategic affairs minister.

“Starting now and within 30 days,” Jerusalem should implement 15 policy changes to avoid a possible arms embargo, the letter states. “Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy under NSM-20 and relevant U.S. law.”

Under NSM-18, issued on Feb. 23, 2023, one of the U.S. foreign policy and national security objectives is to “prevent arms transfers that risk facilitating or otherwise contributing to violations of human rights or international humanitarian law.”

NSM-20, a national security memorandum that U.S. President Joe Biden issued on Feb. 8 about “safeguards and accountability with respect to transferred defense articles and defense services,” requires the secretary of state “to obtain certain credible and reliable written assurances from foreign governments receiving defense articles.”

It also directs the defense and state secretaries to “provide periodic congressional reports to enable meaningful oversight” and ensure that all defensive weapon transfers ” are conducted in a manner consistent with all applicable international and domestic law and policy, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law.”

Among other measures, the letter calls on the Jewish Israel to allow at least 350 aid trucks to pass through existing border crossings daily and to open a fifth crossing.

Israel is also instructed to announce “adequate humanitarian pauses across Gaza” for at least four months, rescind evacuation orders, remove a ban on the entry of “container and closed trucks,” authorize certain items with dual military use to enter and confirm that there will be no “policy of forced evacuation of civilians from northern to southern Gaza.”

The missive also reportedly expresses concerns about proposed Knesset legislation that would shut down activities in the Jewish state of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, declaring the U.N. body a terror group and stripping its staff of diplomatic privileges.

“While we share your concerns about the serious allegations of certain UNRWA employees participating in the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks and of Hamas misusing UNRWA facilities, enactment of such restrictions would devastate the Gaza humanitarian response at this critical moment,” per the letter. “We ask that you take all possible steps, whether with lawmakers or using the authorities of the Prime Minister’s Office, to ensure that this does not come to pass.”

Citing reports of abuses against terrorists captured during Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre and the Gaza ground campaign, the letter urges Israel to immediately allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit all “individuals detained in connection with this conflict.”

“It is vitally important that our governments establish a new channel through which we can raise and discuss civilian harm incidents,” the letter concludes. “Our engagements to date have not produced the necessary outcomes. We ask that the initial virtual meeting of this channel be held by the end of October.”

In May, the U.S. State Department issued a report to Congress about U.S. arms transfers to Israel that was deeply critical of the Jewish state but stopped short of concluding that it was violating international law.

“Given Israel’s significant reliance on U.S.-made defense articles, it is reasonable to assess that defense articles covered under NSM-20 have been used by Israeli security forces since Oct. 7 in instances inconsistent with its international humanitarian law obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm,” the report stated.

The report noted that individual violations of international law do not mean that a country is not committed to following the law. It added that Israel has several “active criminal investigations pending, and there are hundreds of cases under administrative review” about its own conduct.

In March, Jerusalem provided a written letter to Washington declaring that it abides by international law when using weapons transferred from the United States, which was another requirement of Biden’s memorandum.

The Israel Defense Forces has been fighting to defeat Hamas in Gaza since the terror group led a mass invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, murdering 1,200 people, primarily Jewish civilians, wounding thousands more and kidnapping 251 people to Gaza, where 101 remain.

Jerusalem has rejected any accusation that the IDF does not comply with international law or is interfering with humanitarian aid efforts and has accused Hamas terrorists of stealing the majority of the aid. At times, the White House and the State Department have admitted that the terror group is known to seize aid.