Israel’s military chiefs are urging their government to prevent Syria from obtaining US or Western aid that would allow Damascus to purchase strategic defence systems.
Israeli commanders are concerned that Syria, in the wake of any peace treaty with Israel, would obtain billions of dollars in US and Western aid that would allow Damascus to buy weapons systems that could significantly alter the military balance in the region.
“We are not threatening the Syrians,” Israel air force commander Maj Gen Eitan Ben-Eliahu told Jane’s Defence Weekly. “So, we don’t see them needing anything more than they already have – particularly regarding weapons that can leave their borders.” Gen Ben-Eliahu was referring to Syrian efforts to purchase the Almaz S-300 (NATO codename: SA-10 ‘Grumble’) air defence system from Moscow. Negotiations have proceeded for two years, hampered by Syria’s $11 billion debt to Russia and the insistence by Damascus on a long-term repayment plan.
Israeli commanders said the procurement of the S-300 would mark a major improvement in Syrian air defence and jeopardise Israeli deterrence. It would also mark the most important step in Syria’s two-year effort in bolstering its military.
Aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said Israel would not oppose US military aid to Syria. They said Syrian dependence on the USA could help ensure any peace treaty between Damascus and Jerusalem.
Military sources said they could agree to US or Western deliveries of weapons that do not represent a significant improvement over what is currently in Syria’s arsenal.
Israel’s military intelligence chief Maj Gen Amos Malka said Syria under President Hafez Assad has in some cases caught up or even exceeded Israel in some areas of military prowess. “If Assad asks his chief of staff tomorrow morning what is the army’s combat-readiness level, he will get an answer that the army is much more prepared than it was when he received it from the previous chief of staff two years ago,” Gen Malka told a seminar at Tel Aviv University’s Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies on 17 January.
The reference, Israeli military sources said, was to Syria’s anti-armour capability and electronic countermeasures. Gen Malka disputed a report by the Jaffee Centre’s annual military balance that dismissed a Syrian military threat.
“The Syrian Army is not in the best shape,” Gen Malka said. “Army-to-army the Israel Defence Force [IDF] stands out qualitatively over the Syrian Army and if war broke out between them the IDF would be victorious. But to jump to the extreme conclusion with significant ramifications that Syria doesn’t have any military option and that its army is collapsing is too far-reaching and dangerous.”
IDF chiefs are also urging Barak to ensure that Egypt, which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, will also be denied certain US weapons. The IDF wants Washington to pledge that it will continue to ban any sale of the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter to Egypt.
Egypt already has more than 200 F-16s. It is regarded as having the best navy and second-best air force in the Middle East – largely because of 20 years of US arms sales and training.
IDF commanders have pointed to a US pledge to maintain Israel’s qualitative edge over its neighbours. “To maintain this edge, we should not have the F-15s sent to any other country except Israel,” said Gen Ben-Eliahu.