The United States Wants Cheap Oil and Democracy

Since World War II, the United States’ abiding relationship with Saudi Arabia has been based on mutual interest. The United States wanted a reliable source of inexpensive oil; Saudi Arabia’s rulers wanted American expertise, protection and dollars. The relationship broke down in 1973 when Arab producers ceased oil shipments to the United States to punish it for supporting Israel, but the traditional formula reasserted itself.

Monday’s visit by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Abdullah to President Bush’s Texas ranch shows that some common interests remain. The United States wants a steady supply of oil at prices low enough to spur economic growth, and the Saudis want to maintain the flow of dollars from healthy oil markets too shortsighted to conserve or switch to alternative energy forms. But conflicts beyond the ancient enmity between Arabs and Israelis make the future of the U.S.-Saudi relationship – and the West’s oil supply – more precarious than ever.

Especially since 9/11, mutual mistrust between Americans and Saudis has grown. At his Crawford ranch, Bush acknowledged the importance of his personal relationship with Crown Prince Abdullah. But longstanding family ties aside, the basis for this relationship is difficult to see. Bush is committed to spreading democracy and human rights in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s rulers are more passionately committed not only to continued despotism, but also to the harsh brand of Islam that is the kingdom’s hallmark and which provides inspiration for al-Qaida members and recruits.

In order to remain in power, the Saudi royal family must appease the dissatisfied segment of its populace that, deprived of a voice in government, has turned to religious fanaticism and hatred of the West. Even if the House of Saud wished to extend equality to women and the rule of law to all, which it doesn’t, its princes probably couldn’t summon the courage to do so and thus diminish their hold on power.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has internal conflicts of its own. The administration pursues a policy of a weak dollar while the president complains to a Saudi prince that Americans have to pay more for imported oil. Bush asks Congress to pass an energy bill that he admits will do nothing to bring down gasoline costs or – through conservation and breakthrough technologies – reduce the nation’s dependence on unstable foreign oil supplies.

Saudi Arabia has a plan to increase oil production capacity from 11 million barrels a day to 12.5 million. That might be enough to meet rising demand in China, India and other fast-developing countries, but the tight gap between supply and demand likely will remain, aggravated by insufficient refinery capacity in the United States.

It will take more than personal ties between a president and a prince to guarantee the United States a safe, adequate energy supply.

This piece appeared on April 25th as an editorial in the Houston Chronicle.
www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/editorial/3152782