As a result of the evacuation of the Israeli settlements and IDF forces from the Gaza Strip, 44 more Israeli residential areas will be within the range of Palestinian Kassam rockets. Army sources predict that this is a dangerous threat and a cause for concern, and that it calls for appropriate defensive preparation in these communities.

The settlements around the Gaza Strip have been recognized as “front line settlements for the purposes of their defense requirements.” Consequently, security will reinforced in these moshavim and kibbutzim.

The Defense Ministry has already approved a long-term plan to improve the defenses of the villages around the Gaza Strip, at a cost of NIS 210 million, of which 70 million will be spent this year. Under the plan, security fences and patrol roads will be built around these villages, peripheral lighting will be installed and concrete security rooms will be constructed in each home. Emergency squads will be recruited from among the residents. Now, however, the heads of these settlements are demanding that [the roofs of] their homes be strengthened to withstand Kassam rockets and mortar bombs, and that the residents receive the tax breaks granted to front line settlements elsewhere.

Yesterday representatives of Israel Military Industries presented its solution to Kassam rockets and mortars. It consists of a colorful and attractive roof which has withstood the test of being struck by an upgraded Kassam rocket. The roof has a thin upper layer of iron with a wooden layer underneath. It will be placed on top of the existing roof. The wood is intended to absorb fragments from the rocket or bomb, so that the original roof will not be damaged.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Tzvika Vogel, a security adviser at the Eshkol Regional Council, who is in charge of activities connected with the threat from the Gaza Strip, said yesterday that he had demanded that the security agencies make strengthening of the houses, schools and other public buildings a top priority. “I assume that the disengagement will be [conducted] under fire and that terrorist activity against the communities around the Gaza Strip will increase. We must not wait a single day. We must provide an immediate solution to the firing of the rockets.”

Vogel demanded that the security agencies provide an answer to the threat posed by tunnels which terrorists would pass through in order to attack the communities in the area. At least five communities – Kerem Shalom, Kissufim, Nahal Oz, Erez and Netivei Haasara – are in immediate danger because they are situated very close to the new security fence around the Gaza Strip.

According to information possessed by the IDF, the terrorist organizations are taking advantage of the current tahdiya to recoup their armory with weapons smuggled in from Egypt and to manufacture mortar bombs and Kassam rockets. Army sources say that in recent weeks the terrorist groups have been conducting experiments with rockets and mortar bombs, firing them out to sea in an attempt to increase their range so that they can hit more targets in addition to the town of Sderot. “Recently there has been a significant erosion of the ceasefire,” an army source said yesterday. “The ability of the Palestinian Authority to cope with the terrorist organizations is very small, if it exists at all. The chances that the disengagement will be conducted under fire are increasing.” At the same time, IDF officers do not rule out the possibility that if there is coordination with the Palestinian Authority, and it is determined to impose its authority, the terrorism can be prevented.

If they are already responding to our legitimate activity by firing Kassam rockets at Sderot, what will happen after the disengagement? If we give this our unspoken consent by doing nothing, why should the situation after the disengagement be any different?” a senior officer at the general staff asked yesterday. He expressed pessimism about everything related to the days after the disengagement.

The IDF is very disappointed with the performance of the chairman of the Palestinian Authority. “Abu Mazen is past his peak, and the question is how far down he will fall when he crashes,” a senior officer said.

Another problem lies in the expected results of the July elections in the Palestinian Authority. “Three weeks before disengagement we’re going to have a Hamas leadership on our hands; Gaza will be Hamas-stan,” the officer said.

In preparation for the situation after the disengagement, the security establishment is currently establishing a “security zone” with a width ranging from 80-200 meters, between the old security fence around the Gaza Strip and the new one that is being built. It is in this zone that the IDF and other security forces will operate.

This piece ran in Yediot Aharonot on May 5th, 2005