Analysis: Does The Bush Administration Constrain Israel?

The Hizbullah has launched a war of extermination against the Jewish people in the land of Israel.

Yet in terms of US policy, the question must be raised: Does the Bush administration now advocate two dissonant policies towards Israel, at one and the same time?

While Bush is not communicating directly with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at this time, the President is making strong statements to the media in favor of Israel at this time, repeatedly calling on Israel to take all necessary steps to defend itself against the Hizbullah aggression from the north.

US Secretary of State Condeleeza Rice, the US official who does communicate directly with all levels of Israeli leadership on behalf of the Bush Administration, delivers an entirely different message. She openly implores Israel NOT to dispatch ground troops into Lebanon to knock out the 12,000 missiles now at the disposal of Hizbullah in Southern Lebanon.

Rice’s stated goal: a “cease fire” as soon as possible.

That would leave Israel short of its goal of neutralizing Hizbullah.

After all, even though there have been over 1,000 Israeli Air Force sorties into Lebanon, the Hezbollah missiles continue to hit Israel.

Israeli intelligence estimates that despite the pounding at the hands of the IDF, the Hizbullah has only lost 25% of its military capability.

In other words, without a ground operation, it will be impossible for Israel to strike accurately and to actually take out these missiles, at a time when Hezbollah threatens key strategic facilities throughout Israel..

There are other sources of major concern: The C-802 rocket that hit an Israeli ship on Friday was a sophisticated radar-guided weapon that comes from Iran via China. Israeli authorities were surprised: they didn’t know Hezbollah had such capability.

Clearly, Iran is testing the waters.

Indeed, long-range Iranian supplied rockets held by Hizbullah are said to be capable of reaching the Tel Aviv area. Sources in Israeli intelligence assesses that the Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 long-range rockets, which can reach Tel Aviv, were moved by Iran into Lebanon to deter Israel from attacking Iran. If these rockets are fired deep into Israel, Israel will understand that this means that the government of Iran will be directly engaging in battle against Israel.

What now mitigates against Israel from conducting a solid land sweep into Lebanon with the purpose of soundly defeating and disarming the Hizbullah remains the firm opposition of the person who communicates with Israel on behalf of the Bush Administration: Condeleeza Rice.

If Israel does not “take out” Hizbullah and eliminate it now, this dagger at Israel’s throat will be almost impossible to remove in the foreseeable future, and Israel would have to live with an Iranian menace at its northern border.

Hezbollah is far from a rag-tag operation. It acts as an Iranian expeditionary force.