A U.S. government-financed report asserted that the United States could
face a series of unexpected crises that would rival the al- Qaida terror attacks in
2001, termed a “strategic shock.” The report by the U.S. Army War College’s
Strategic Institute cited the prospect of the collapse of a nuclear state to
massive unrest in the United States.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the
defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic
domestic order and human security,” the report, authored by retired Lt. Col.
Nathan Freir, said.

Continued On Page 8 “Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or
other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of
functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or
insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural
and human disasters are all paths to disruptive domestic shock.”

Titled “Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense
Strategy Development,” the report warned that the U.S. military and
intelligence community remain mired in the past as well as the need to
accommodate government policy. Lt. Col. Freier, a former Pentagon official, said that
despite the al-Qaida surprise in 2001, U.S. defense strategy and planning
remain trapped by “excessive convention.”

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“The current administration confronted a game-changing ‘strategic shock’
inside its first eight months in office,” the report said. “The next
administration would be well-advised to expect the same during the course of
its first term. Indeed, the odds are very high against any of the challenges
routinely at the top of the traditional defense agenda triggering the next
watershed inside DoD (Department of Defense).”

The report cited the collapse of what Lt. Col. Freier termed “a large capable
state that results in a nuclear civil war.” Such a prospect could lead to
uncontrolled weapons of mass destruction proliferation as well as a nuclear

The report cited the prospect of a breakdown of order in the United
States. Lt. Col. Freier said the Pentagon could be suddenly forced to recall troops
from abroad to fight domestic unrest.

“An American government and defense establishment lulled into
complacency by a long-secure domestic order would be forced to rapidly
divest some or most external security commitments in order to address
rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,” the report said.

The report said the United States could also come under pressure from a
hostile state with control over insurgency groups. Such a hostile state could
force American decisionmakers into a desperate response.

“The United States might also consider the prospect that hostile state
and/or nonstate actors might individually or in concert combine hybrid
methods effectively to resist U.S. influence in a nonmilitary manner,” the
report said. “This is clearly an emerging trend.”

Another scenario was the collapse of what Lt. Col. Freier termed “a large capable
state that results in a nuclear civil war.” Such a prospect could lead to
uncontrolled weapons of mass destruction proliferation as well as a nuclear

“The aforementioned are admittedly extreme,” the report said. “They are
not, however, implausible or fantastical.”

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com.


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David Bedein
David Bedein is an MSW community organizer and an investigative journalist.   In 1987, Bedein established the Israel Resource News Agency at Beit Agron to accompany foreign journalists in their coverage of Israel, to balance the media lobbies established by the PLO and their allies.   Mr. Bedein has reported for news outlets such as CNN Radio, Makor Rishon, Philadelphia Inquirer, Los Angeles Times, BBC and The Jerusalem Post, For four years, Mr. Bedein acted as the Middle East correspondent for The Philadelphia Bulletin, writing 1,062 articles until the newspaper ceased operation in 2010. Bedein has covered breaking Middle East negotiations in Oslo, Ottawa, Shepherdstown, The Wye Plantation, Annapolis, Geneva, Nicosia, Washington, D.C., London, Bonn, and Vienna. Bedein has overseen investigative studies of the Palestinian Authority, the Expulsion Process from Gush Katif and Samaria, The Peres Center for Peace, Peace Now, The International Center for Economic Cooperation of Yossi Beilin, the ISM, Adalah, and the New Israel Fund.   Since 2005, Bedein has also served as Director of the Center for Near East Policy Research.   A focus of the center's investigations is The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). In that context, Bedein authored Roadblock to Peace: How the UN Perpetuates the Arab-Israeli Conflict - UNRWA Policies Reconsidered, which caps Bedein's 28 years of investigations of UNRWA. The Center for Near East Policy Research has been instrumental in reaching elected officials, decision makers and journalists, commissioning studies, reports, news stories and films. In 2009, the center began decided to produce short movies, in addition to monographs, to film every aspect of UNRWA education in a clear and cogent fashion.   The center has so far produced seven short documentary pieces n UNRWA which have received international acclaim and recognition, showing how which UNRWA promotes anti-Semitism and incitement to violence in their education'   In sum, Bedein has pioneered The UNRWA Reform Initiative, a strategy which calls for donor nations to insist on reasonable reforms of UNRWA. Bedein and his team of experts provide timely briefings to members to legislative bodies world wide, bringing the results of his investigations to donor nations, while demanding reforms based on transparency, refugee resettlement and the demand that terrorists be removed from the UNRWA schools and UNRWA payroll.   Bedein's work can be found at: www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com and www.cfnepr.com. A new site,unrwa-monitor.com, will be launched very soon.