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http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=64336
Many different officials and others are now pitching the idea that demilitarization of the Gaza Strip should follow after a cease fire goes into effect (if and when it does).
Unfortunately, if there is one thing we have learned from the Oslo experience it is that third parties are profoundly unreliable in such matters.
The CIA no doubt does fantastic work spying around the world, but when the White House assigned them the task of evaluating the performance/compliance of PA security forces and at the same time made it clear that it served U.S. interests for the PA security forces to pass with flying colors, the CIA adopted the principles of the three monkeys (hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil) and prepared glowing reports.
There is though a second approach that can involve willing third parties: witnessing and documenting the destruction of equipment.
Step #1 Set a timetable with minimum numerical goals for the destruction of various weapons along with a procedure for reliably observing and documenting the destruction process.
Step #2. Implement the timetable.
To be clear: there is no room here for a third party observer to report “we inspected the area and found nothing”. It’s either “the following is documentation of the destruction of weapons in compliance with the timetable” or “the following is documentation of the failure to destroy weapons in compliance with the timetable”
What about the rocket factories?
If we have intelligence on specific locations and the key equipment in the locations we can require that their being cleared out and the key equipment destroyed be documented.
There’s a good chance that some of the facilities will be emptied out before the observers arrive but they will be cleared out.
It’s not a 100% solution.
But the alternative of a demilitarization program that does not have numerical goals and timetables would be a farce doomed to failure.
