Trying to predict events when it comes to Israel and the region is fraught with uncertainty.
Crystal balls may be notoriously unreliable, but nevertheless, there are certain circumstances where the situation is so predetermined that forecasting a prognosis is very easy.
Whether the scenarios I am going to describe actually eventuate remains to be seen but based on the law of inevitability, there is more than an even chance they will occur.
The first is the departure from the scene of the PA President for life, Abbas. Like all dictators, he believes that his position as leader is his by divine right and, therefore, it is not necessary to even go through the charade of holding elections. Unlike others in his situation, there is no guarantee that the results could be successfully manipulated in order to guarantee a 99% approval.
Rampant corruption and bully tactics by the enforcers of Fatah and the PA has ensured competing terror groups gaining in popularity and support.
With no designated successor in sight, the stage is set for a real right royal blood bath when Abbas finally departs. It is highly unlikely that he will voluntarily retire, so it will be due to health reasons or mental incapacity that he will vacate his position.
It is amazing but nevertheless indicative of the double standards and hypocrisy now prevalent in the international community that neither the Biden Administration nor any other democratic country has demanded any accountability from Abbas. When it comes to Israel, everyone is quick to condemn, give advice and make demands about domestic and internal matters. The fact that Abbas is embraced by, and in return extends solidarity with the world’s worst abusers of human rights and democratic values are seemingly irrelevant.
It is maintained by those in Israel and elsewhere that Abbas and the PA/Fatah are the best we can hope for and better than Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the other assorted terror groups now waiting in the wings.
This is another of those mirages so beloved by the far left, self-loathers and hallucinating individuals alike.
The incontrovertible reality soon to be foisted on us all is that the day after Abbas disappears from the scene, all hell will break out. There will be a jihad war of succession with all the various terror groups vying for supremacy. In order to succeed, they will need to advocate and promise death, martyrdom and the elimination of the Zionist “occupier.” They will be cheered on by their various supporters, which will include not only local Islamist jihadists but also the useful idiots in Western political parties and at the United Nations. Without a doubt, of course, the likes of North Korea, Iran, China and Russia will also be lending vocal and perhaps material support.
The end result is not hard to predict.
Israel will be warned to show restraint and will be blamed for the outcome because “we did not show enough support for Abbas and his financial support to terror perpetrators.” Any steps that Israel might take to safeguard and protect its citizens will be condemned. Additionally, Israel will be told that it must urgently make gestures in order to placate those who do not believe that Jews have any right to live anywhere here.
My predictions are not a flight of fancy. They are based on hard cold realities which we ignore at our collective peril. Unfortunately, ignoring predetermined scripts is a genetic defect afflicting far too many.
The recent health scare involving Bibi Netanyahu should focus our thoughts on what happens the day after he retires.
Nobody is immortal, but some, particularly politicians, seem to think that not only can the country not survive without them at the helm but that it is imperative they carry on forever. The retirement age for males in Israel is 67, and that is rigorously enforced by many employers.
Personally speaking, after having worked non-stop for forty-seven years, I was more than ready to retire and enjoy quality time doing things at leisure. I realize that circumstances vary depending on one’s financial situation, profession and abilities but generally speaking “getting out” while one is still physically and mentally in top condition is preferable to hanging on until one drops.
It is not as though life suddenly terminates on retirement, although those who refuse to do so often believe that it is the end of the world. Particularly in Israel, there are so many opportunities to volunteer and engage in meaningful activities that one is usually busier in retirement than previously.
Those who refuse to retire merely impede the progress of younger fellow workers and contribute to future mayhem when they eventually are forced to leave.
This is the situation now faced in the political scene in Israel. It is not a new situation but one which keeps endlessly repeating itself with the same dire results.
This means that the day after “Bibi” eventually leaves, chaos and mayhem will break out in Likud. No clear successor has been appointed, groomed or designated, which will result in a “free for all” among those striving to grab the top job. Various factions will be vying for influence, and bitter infighting will be the order of the day. Do not be surprised if this causes the party to split into various groups, each proclaiming itself the authentic voice of right-wing ideology.
This has happened in the past to other political parties, and given the realities of the current situation, it is guaranteed to occur again.
All this could be avoided if only those concerned worried more about the welfare of the country than their own personal ambitions.
The next scenario revolves around what happens the day after Iran announces that it has developed a nuclear option. It has already been allowed to acquire the missiles to deliver them, and therefore it only needs the actual weapons themselves in order to fulfil its declared intention to wipe out the “Zionist entity.”
Taking into account the US, EU & UN’s pathetic responses to North Korea and its unimpeded march to nuclear blackmail status the probability of Iran getting away with the same tactics is very high. By the time the State Department and White House manage to get their collective acts together, the Iranians will have struck. The UN Security Council will be neutered by the vetoes of China and Russia and the progressive Democrats and their willing partners will have organized frenzied opposition to anything which might hold Iran to account.
Hopefully, if Israel acts in time to thwart Iranian genocidal ambitions, the day after will look entirely different. What remains certain is that the usual suspects will be convulsed with indignation at the chutzpah of Israel acting to defend itself. Media editorials and pontifications by clueless appeasers will proliferate and demands for sanctions against the intended victim rather than the aggressor will be advocated.
During his recent visit to the USA, President Herzog met with the UN Secretary General. He told him that “Israel expects the UN to stand with Israel against Iran.” Based on past and current performances, this expectation is in the realm of fantasy and false hopes. It is a sign of the times that the media and some commentators actually thought that this was attainable.
These “day after” scenarios are already predetermined.
Their toxic outcomes can be mitigated and eliminated if firm measures are put in place to deal with them.
The question remains as to whether those responsible are prepared to act resolutely and in time.