Annapolis Analysis: Trap For Israeli Defense Forces

Annapolis, Md. – Israeli military sources confirm that the declaration at Annapolis on beginning to work for a permanent status arrangement – with target dates, puts the Israeli security establishment in a nearly intolerable situation.

Israel will have to maneuver between momentum in the peace process, which means taking measured military steps, and a serious security crisis, including expecting a series of terror attacks and attempts to sabotage the peace process, the sources said.

In the first stage, the “big” military operation in the Gaza Strip, meant to undermine Hamas’ regime, is being pushed off, apparently to an unknown date.

Dec. 12 is the date to begin talks on the permanent status arrangement, meaning there would be no operation. People in Israel who were sure after Annapolis they would be free of constraint and could act in the Gaza Strip, were proven wrong. The people in Sderot and the Western Negev who had believed the IDF would put an end to the daily terror of mortar fire will, apparently, be disappointed.

In addition, winter is coming. And if the IDF we don’t absolutely have to, they do not go to battle in stormy weather.

On one thing all the security officials agree: In Annapolis, the State of Israel closed a deal with someone who cannot deliver.

The Palestinian Authority (PA), headed by Mahmoud Abbas (AKA Abu Mazen), is linked to two life-support machines: international legitimacy that it receives for its existence, and an Israeli monopoly on security in the West Bank.

Remove Israeli force and the PA dies. It was no coincidence that Abu Mazen did not mention in his Annapolis speech that he asked for expanded authority. He knows that he can’t. Also in the course of the talks that preceded Annapolis, the Palestinians did not have excessive demands regarding security, except for removing roadblocks, enlarging the circle of Fatah wanted men that Israel should stop pursuing, and a bit of weapons and armored vehicles.

To help build the Palestinian power base, the Americans plan to establish a steering committee headed by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, General Dayton and a political envoy of President Bush, to supervise the establishment of the security, governmental and economic institutions of the PA and to monitor the implementation of the first stage of the road map. The stage that includes PA action against terror. The Americans will have to invest a great deal of money and time until they are able to see a loyal and effective military force.

The Israel security establishment believes that intensive work will be necessary, of at least one to two years to breathe life into this plan and bring it to a situation in which it can handle opposition on the ground. Any attempt to speed up the process and to give the PA security responsibility too early, say high-ranking security sources,will bring to the West Bank what is in Gaza: the build-up of a Hamas military force and high trajectory fire from the West Bank at Israel.

Did Israel’s Principles Of Negotiation Collapse In Annapolis?

The joint Annapolis statement between Mr. Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert signalled a total deterioration of Israel’s stated negotiation positions a withdrawal from all the principles that had guided the government to the summit.

Mr. Olmert backed off from his opposition to any timetable for the negotiations. Now there is a date for the start of negotiations – Dec. 12 – and there is a date for their completion: The end of 2008. In the current situation, Mr.Olmert will find it difficult to say that “there are no sacred dates.” Mr. Olmert has, instead, endorsed the time schedule.

Mr. Olmert backed off from the demand based on the road map, according to which the next stage of the agreement will only be implemented after the Palestinians fight terror. Now there is consent to a dialogue with a target date for establishing a Palestinian state, while terror continues. The Annapolis conference has buried what was nearly Ariel Sharon’s only achievement since the road map, of making Israeli steps contingent upon Palestinian action against terrorist organizations.

Mr. Olmert backed off from his opposition to international supervision of the agreement’s implementation. Nothing remains of the principle established by Yitzhak Rabin, which was maintained by all Israeli prime ministers, that only Israel would decide whether the Palestinian side had met its commitments. In the joint statement, it was stated explicitly that the U.S. would supervise the implementation of the road map clauses, and would judge and supervise the implementation of the clauses on the part of Israel and the Palestinians.

These clauses demand declarations on the part of the Palestinians, and irreversible actions on Israel’s part. Israel has committed itself to carrying out tangible steps such as a freeze on expanding Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria and in dismantling nearby outposts – matters that are measurable by nature,which can easily be proven whether they have been implemented or not.

Instead, Israel heard a dictate from Mr. Bush: Israel must “remove illegal settlement outposts and halt illegal construction”.

While the Palestinians have committed themselves again to fight terror. They can always kill off a terrorist or two and claim to have “fought terror.”

The meaning of the statement is that Israel will be under close supervision by the U.S. to carry out irreversible actions, while the Palestinians will not.

Mr. Bush, for the first time, talked about the Israeli “occupation,” when he said that the Israelis must show that they are willing to put an end to the occupation that began in 1967. Mr. Bush did not mention the letter to Mr. Sharon in which he agreed to recognize settlement blocs or the reality that has changed since 1967. Mr. Bush did not mention any issue in his speech that is of significance to Israel. For instance, he did not mention the rocket fire.

Olmert’s Situation: From Annapolis To

The Bank Leumi Affair

Last night, Mr. Olmert was set to fly back to Israel: The dozens of bodyguards, radio technicians and intelligence officials who accompany him on his trips abroad were to dismantle the forward command posts set up at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Washington and pack up the huge quantities of equipment brought here to take back to Israel.

From the meetings at the Oval Office and from the impressive appearance in the conference hall at Annapolis, Mr. Olmert will land today directly into the complex reality awaiting him at home: The announcement of the police’s decision whether to recommend that he be prosecuted in a Bank price-fixing scandal.

And so, Mr. Olmert cannot look forward to a single moment of satisfaction: If the police decided to recommend that he be prosecuted, even if the case is later closed at the decision of the state attorney, Mr. Olmert will have to face the recommendation and later on the other investigation cases. His critics on the Right will demand that he stop dealing with promoting the negotiations with the Palestinians. Others, his rivals in Kadima and Likud members, will search for the moment to end his term of office.

The question that will accompany him from now on is whether Mr. Olmert – not the negotiations – will reach the end of 2008 in the post of prime minister.

On To Iran

On Tuesday, Mr. Olmert held a confidential meeting with President Bush concerning the Iranian threat.

In the past few years, Israel and the U.S. have disagreed over the point of no return, after which Iran will possess the technology to produce a first nuclear bomb. Messrs. Olmert and Bush talked about the Iranian issue frequently, and the Iranian nuclear threat also came up at all the meetings between the two leaders in Washington.

In the coming weeks, Israel Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman is due to put on Mr. Olmert’s table a comprehensive position paper which is the first of its kind on Israeli policy on the nuclear threat, described by security officials as the only existential threat against Israel. In addition, Mr. Olmert and Mr. Bush are expected to also talk about the northern arena: Syria and Lebanon. According to an Israeli political official: “President Bush is totally in accord with the prime minister on the Syrian issue, and there is no pressure on Israel to resume negotiations on the Golan Heights.”

Islamic Jihad: ‘Autumn Storms’ Operation

In Response To

Autumn Conference

The Salah a-Din Brigades, the military wing of Islamic Jihad, announced on Tuesday that they are beginning a series of terror actions that will be called “autumn storms,” which will include rocket and mortar shell fire at Israeli residents, as a response to the conference in Annapolis.

Despite this lofty declaration, there was no significant increase on Tuesday in rocket and mortar shell fire. On Tuesday, three rockets and four mortar shells were fired at the Negev. One of the rockets landed between Kfar Gaza and Mifalsim. Mortar shells were also fired at Kerem Shalom.

In the wake of the fire, IAF helicopters attacked a position belonging to the Hamas Executive Force near Khan Yunis, hitting mortar shell launchers.

On Tuesday, IDF forces operated inside Palestinian territory in the northern Gaza Strip, in the Erez industrial zone area and in the southern Gaza Strip near Kerem Shalom. The troops entered the area to search for possible tunnels, in the wake of concern that Palestinian had dug tunnels under the border fence into Israel. In addition, forces are operating against rocket launchers. According to military sources, Golani, Armored Corps and engineering forces, with the aid of the IAF, are operating to block unending attempts at terror, and distance terrorists from the border fence.

©The Bulletin 2007