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Difficult Israel Security Assessment from Dr. Mordechai Keidar, 25 year veteran of Israel intelligence
Dr. Keidar, whom I have known and worked with for 30 years, says that he hesitated whether to publish what appears below because of panic that it might cause in Israel.
However, Dr. Keidar feels that that in the Middle East environment, and in particular in Iraq, these things are known and serve as a topic of open discussion among quite a few, so it is impossible for the public in Israel not to be aware of them as well, and in particular that these things concern him, his security and existence, much more than they concern the citizens of Iraq.
In addition, these things come up from time to time in the Israeli media, so he decided to bring them to light at this time.
A source of Dr.Keidar – an expatriate from the Middle East, a supporter of Israel, who lives in Europe and is in continuous contact with people in Iran and Iraq – conveyed his analysis that Iran plans to launch a combined attack on Israel in the foreseeable future that will include all the forces at its disposal in the Arab countries:
In Lebanon – Hezbollah and Hamas with many thousands of missiles and UAVs, some of them accurate.
In Syria – 17 combat units (“militias”) armed and ready: Fatimiun, Zinbioun, Nujabaa’, Hezbollah, Abu Al-Fachal Brigade, Atsa’ab Ahl al-Haq, Khorsani Brigade, and more. Iran has transferred to Syria a very large number of missiles and UAVs and these are ready to be launched.
In Iraq – dozens of militias, armed with missiles and UAVs.
In Yemen – the Houthis, who have missiles and long-range UAVs that reach Israel.
In Gaza – Hamas and the GAP with missiles capable of disabling the Israel Defense Forces and Air Force bases.
It is likely that Iran will not send anything from its territory to Israel in order not to expose itself to retaliation.
So much for the assessment that came to me from Iraq. Hence my interpretation.
Under the pretext of the duty of the Muslim world to save the Al-Aqsa Mosque from the Israeli occupation and oppression, Iran will conduct a staged, comprehensive, integrated and coordinated attack on Israel. The first phase will be a shower of missiles and UAVs from all the aforementioned arenas together, and the Iranian estimate is that the stock of interceptors of the “Iron Dome” will run out within two to three hours from the start of the air attack, after which the Israeli skies will be open and the air force will be damaged and grounded.
The first phase, the air, will be accompanied by a cyber attack on Israeli infrastructure systems. After a full day of a cyber attack and a rain of missiles and UAVs that will hit air force bases, navy bases, army bases, electricity, computing, communication, road and water infrastructures, the second phase will begin: a coordinated ground attack from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza by infantry, mounted forces On dirt bikes and ATVs, equipped with anti-tank weapons, they will cross the obstacles and attack the Israeli ground forces in order to reach Jewish settlements as quickly as possible.
The calculation of the Iranians is that the mobilization of the reserves will take several days and at most will be partial because of the mess that will be created throughout the country. IDF reinforcements will not arrive in time to the various fronts and therefore the regular forces will collapse within hours in the face of the ground attack as happened in the Canal and the Golan during the Yom Kippur war. The invasion of ground forces from Syria, Lebanon and Gaza will focus on Israeli settlements with the aim of demoralizing the Israeli public and forcing the government to surrender in order to save the lives of the many Israelis who will be captured by the Arab and Iranian militias.
It is not clear what role the Iranians ascribe to the Palestinians in the war. However, it is likely that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority will push them to do everything in their power to harm Jews, the army, the police and civilians moving on the roads, in addition to attacks on Jewish communities and IDF military bases.
The Iranians expect Arabs in the Galilee and Negev to carry out actions against the IDF and the state such as blocking roads, damaging bridges, spilling oil on roads, blocking intersections, damaging high voltage lines and attacking Jewish communities, recalling what occurred in Israel in May 2021
Because the Israel National Guard is not operational yet, these actions would cause incredible damage in Israel
