Al-Ahram Weekly: Jordan Rejects Confederation with Arafat

Arafat’s Ladder
by Graham Usher

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“With the dust barely settled on his father’s grave, last week King Abdullah was confronted with the one issue he almost certainly would have preferred to have stayed buried, at least during the opening months of his reign”.

Excerpts

… Palestinian President Yasser Arafat revived the debate over the form of the political association between Jordan and any future Palestinian entity. “We want [King Abdullah] to know that the Palestinian National Council has agreed to a confederation with Jordan,” said Arafat. More alarming still — as far as Jordan was concerned — were the comments by PA spokesman, Nabil Abu Rdeineh, that discussions on a “confederacy” between Jordan and the Palestinians should happen sooner rather than later.

…

In 1985, the Palestinian National Council (PNC) endorsed the idea of a confederation between Jordan and any future Palestinian state. Never set out in detail, the decision had been taken in the context of a rapprochement between Arafat and King Hussein following the PLO’s eviction from Beirut in 1982. Following a souring in relations between the PLO and Jordan in 1986, however, the confederation idea, though never formally abandoned, was quietly shelved. Since then, the unspoken status quo — shared by both King Hussein and Arafat — was that the issue of a confederation should only be raised after a Palestinian state had been established “on Palestinian soil”. It is this status quo that Arafat and Rdeineh’s comments have thrown into doubt.

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In recent weeks, the Palestinian leader has been under inordinate pressure to publicly postpone his “right” to declare unilaterally a Palestinian state when Oslo’s interim period expires on 4 May. As part of the Wye River Agreement, the US gave Israel a written pledge that it “opposes and will oppose” any unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood. Last month, the European parliament also made it known that a “premature” Palestinian UDI would create a “complex situation” in the region. Israel’s Labour and Centre parties have also stated that a Palestinian state should be “a result of negotiations” rather than an independent Palestinian action.

The unspoken assumption behind this chorus of restraint is that any attempt by Arafat to go it alone would almost certainly help Binyamin Netanyahu’s election prospects rather than those of Ehud Barak, especially if the Israeli leader, in retaliation, carries out his threat to annex those parts of the Occupied Territories under Israel’s control. Such an action would bury whatever tenuous hopes the US and Europe have about resurrecting Oslo in the wake of the Israeli elections.

It is a scenario Arafat probably shares. His problem is that having climbed the tree of threatening a unilateral declaration of statehood on 4 May, he needs a dignified way to descend from it. By floating the confederation idea, he could mount a retreat in the name of “coordination and discussion” with Jordan rather than climbing down meekly due to American and European pressure. Should the confederation idea also receive a positive response internationally — and especially in Washington — Arafat could also claim this as another implicit recognition of a Palestinian state.

So far, the international response to his call has been led by Jordan. “As for confederation or any other future relation between Jordan and the Palestinians,” commented Jordan’s information minister, Nasser Joudeh, on 14 February, “we will cross that bridge when we come to it”. For now, “the most important thing… is that Jordan concentrates… on helping and supporting Palestinians win their full rights on Palestinian soil, meaning the establishment of their national state.”

This is a polite way of saying that confederation should stay on the shelf and that Arafat, having climbed the tree of 4 May, should not look to Amman to provide him with a ladder.

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“The Jordanian government and opposition parties alike reacted angrily this week to the proposal by Palestinian President Yasser Arafat for a confederation with Jordan, Khaled Dawoud reports from Amman.”

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“Arafat’s proposal… would only help Israel’s declared intention of establishing Jordan as an alternative homeland for the Palestinians.” [IMRA: Israel simply has no such intention.]

“Abdul-Majid Zuneibat, supreme guide of Jordan’s main opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, told Al-Ahram Weekly that Arafat’s proposal at this particular junction was an invitation to Judaise Jordan and an attempt to avoid declaring an independent Palestinian state by solving his problems at Jordan’s expense. We vehemently reject this call.”

Full Text

The Jordanian government and opposition parties alike reacted angrily this week to the proposal by Palestinian President Yasser Arafat for a confederation with Jordan.

Jordanian Prime Minister Fayez Al-Tarawneh immediately declared that the topic was not up for discussion at this particular time and that there could be no talk of confederation before the creation of an independent Palestinian state was complete.

Several parliament members also issued statements expressing “dismay and surprise at Arafat’s proposal”, describing it as an attempt by the Palestinian leader to add to Jordan’s problems at a time when the country is struggling to overcome its grief at the death of King Hussein.

George Hadad, a columnist at the daily Dastour newspaper, said that not long ago the late King Hussein had publicly asked Arafat to refrain from raising this issue until the occupied Palestinian territories had been liberated. Hadad said that Arafat’s proposal, made only four days after Hussein’s death, would only help Israel’s declared intention of establishing Jordan as an alternative homeland for the Palestinians.

With the expiry date of the Oslo Agreement signed between Israel and the Palestinians approaching on 4 May without any hope of a breakthrough in the peace process, Jordanian officials and opposition groups fear that the proposed confederation may be meant as an alternative to Arafat’s threat to unilaterally declare an independent state, thus giving Israel the justification to transfer hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to Jordan. If this were to come about, it would seriously aggravate Jordan’s economic problems. The country is already suffering from a lack of economic resources and sky-rocketing unemployment.

Abdul-Majid Zuneibat, supreme guide of Jordan’s main opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, told Al-Ahram Weekly that Arafat’s proposal at this particular juncture was “an invitation to Judaise Jordan and an attempt to avoid declaring an independent Palestinian state by solving his problems at Jordan’s expense. We vehemently reject this call.”

Like other Jordanian commentators, Zuneibat said that Jordanians and Palestinians have been united by force of circumstances over the past decade, “but any talk of a confederation should be left until after the establishment of a Palestinian state. That way, the union would take place voluntarily between two independent nations.”

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“Yassar Arafat surprised the international community by reviving the old call for a Palestinian-Jordanian confederation. Sherine Bahaa spoke to analysts about the possible reasons behind the proposal”.

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“A confederation with Jordan” was former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres’ answer, when asked what came next, following the signing of the 1995 interim agreement between Palestine and Israel.

Today, four years later, observers agree that a confederation remains the most likely scenario. In the words of one Arab analyst, “The current situation proves that establishing a Palestinian entity is inevitable, but it also proves this entity will not amount to an integrated state.”

Khalil Shkaki, head of the Palestinian Research Centre in Nablus, believes that a majority of Palestinians support the idea of a confederation for “historical, strategic and social reasons.” According to Shkaki, Palestinians think that some form of unity between the two populations might be useful. “It might well be asked whether a Palestinian state without some form of unity with Jordan would be viable,” Shkaki told Al-Ahram Weekly.

At a regional meeting of his mainstream Fateh faction in Hebron last Friday, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat said that the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s (PLO) parliament in exile favoured a confederacy with Jordan, if the country’s newly crowned King Abdullah approves of the idea.

“Arafat wanted to confirm earlier positions and reassure Jordanians that Palestinian policy remains unchanged despite the death of King Hussein,” said Shkaki.

The timing of Arafat’s announcement of the revival of the proposal is one considerable source of controversy. Though some analysts point to his need to find a solution before the 4 May Oslo agreement deadline which is now looming, others regard his statement as an attempt to influence, if not preempt, the Jordanian decision. Abdel-Wahab Elmessiri, an expert on Zionist affairs, inclines to the first opinion. “The confederation with Jordan would represent a way out for him,” said Elmessiri, who sees the Palestinian leader as essentially pragmatic. “Arafat’s position is very difficult. The Arab states are divided. He is confronting Israel on his own, and he has to rely on his wits to work out a solution for himself.”

Political analyst Mohamed Sid-Ahmed subscribes to the second point of view. Sid-Ahmed believes that it is the precarious nature of the regional situation which has induced Arafat to bring the confederation proposal forward once again. “There is a new power structure in Jordan, and it is a vulnerable one,” Sid-Ahmed said. He attributes this vulnerability to a number of reasons. A much-loved heir to the throne, who had held that position for 35 years, was suddenly removed, and replaced by an inexperienced young man, who now finds himself king. As Sid-Ahmed points out, it is obvious that not everybody in Jordan is pleased with Hussein’s choice of Abdullah as his successor.

Sid-Ahmed believes that Arafat saw an opportunity to raise the matter again, especially as Netanyahu has been obliged to call for early elections. “Netanyahu cornered inside the country, and the Jordanians in a weak position: this is a golden opportunity to put everybody on the defensive with a step of that sort,” he explained.

Meanwhile, the United States have unveiled a plan by President Bill Clinton which had been shelved due to the Monicagate trial. The Americans are proposing a tripartite Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian confederation. According to US officials, the Clinton scenario would commit the three partners to a plan which would ensure stability in the region. It would also serve to reinforce the American-Jordanian relationship. An invitation has already been sent to the new Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah, to visit the US and address the Congress.

This is a scenario which does not appeal much to Elmessiri, who views the Americans as inveterate pragmatists. “They never address fundamental issues. That’s why they keep cooking up new ‘solutions’ for the Arab-Israeli conflict,” he said. “Will this mean the implementation of the 1948 UN resolutions? Can this confederation solve the problem of the refugees of 1967, or of sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza?” Elmessiri believes that the Palestinian issue has gone beyond political endeavours and pragmatic solutions. For him, Israel was always determined to separate the land from the people, so as to achieve at least a partial fulfillment of the Zionist slogan, “A land without people, that would be modified to read, A land divorced from the people.”

He continued: “Unfortunately for Israel, the Palestinians are growing in numbers, they are highly educated and they have the support of the Arab and Islamic peoples. This leaves the Israelis with a problem which so far has no answer in the Zionist lexicon.”

However, this does not mean there are no benefits to be drawn from a three-way confederation, should it ever materialise. “It would strengthen relations between the Jordanians and the Palestinians, strengthen the new regime being set up in Jordan and also create a better bulwark against any intrigues or conspiracies that might be hatched at this juncture by people like Ariel Sharon,” Sid Ahmed commented. “Moreover, a confederation would put an end to the criticisms now emerging from within the ranks of the Palestinians of the Palestinian Authority.”

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“… Arafat… has forced Jordan, as represented by the new king, Abdullah, to reject the proposal, at least temprarily…. the new monarch still feels that his success depends on a domestic Palestinan majority, yet cannot be sure of this constituency’s loyalty.”

“Shimon Peres has announced that, if Labour wins the forthcoming elections, he will back the declaration of a Palestinian state, and welcome the establishment of a confederation…. Netanyahu… has refused the idea categorically.”

Full Text

The late King Hussein had proposed that Jordan join a confederation with the Palestinian authority set up after Israel’s withdrawal. The Palestinians had always opposed this suggestion; some requested that it be postponed until after Israel had withdrawn from occupied territory and a referendum on the question had been held; others refused altogether, for reasons related to the Palestinians’ experience in Jordan under Hussein. Now Arafat, by turning the tables, has forced Jordan, as represented by the new king, Abdullah, to reject the proposal, at least temporarily. It has not been long since King Hussein’s death, and the new monarch still feels that his success depends on a domestic Palestinian majority, yet cannot be sure of this constituency’s loyalty.

The rapid refusal is probably due to the fact that the effective players in Jordan — King Abdullah’s power base — are the tribes, the army and the ruling family. Former Crown Prince Hassan’s followers are also in favour of distancing the Palestinians. In any case, it is now up to the EU, and especially Britain, to make a move. The creation of a confederation, of course, would imply that a Palestinian state has been recognised — precisely Arafat’s intention.

Shimon Peres has announced that, if Labour wins the forthcoming elections, he will back the declaration of a Palestinian state, and welcome the establishment of a confederation. As for Netanyahu, he has refused the idea categorically.

Translations by
Dr. Joseph Lerner,
Co-Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
P.O.BOX 982 Kfar Sava
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