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Israel has sought to maneuver between two schools on how to deter Iran, a report said.
The Institute for National Security Studies asserted that strategists in Israel were considering two doctrines to deter a nuclear Iran. In a report, the institute pitted the doctrine that stipulated a priority on Teheran with another that focused on Iran’s proxies, Hizbullah and Syria.
“There are two strategic schools of thought,” the report, titled “After the Damascus Attack: Ten Points to Consider,” said. “One says ‘Iran first’ and that all priorities and resources should be directed at this effort, including the willingness to pay strategic costs in other arenas, whereas another says ‘Syria and Hizbullah first,’ based on the recognition that it is possible to deter Iran and demonstrate Israel’s resolve and capabilities when it comes to crossing red lines and weaken Iran’s ability to respond by attacking its allies and first line of fire.”
Author Amos Yadlin, a former chief of Military Intelligence, asserted that Israeli air strikes on Damascus in May 2013 might have demonstrated the effectiveness of the second doctrine. He cited the failure by Hizbullah or Syria to retaliate for the Israeli attacks, said to have targeted Iranian missile shipments.
“It is unclear if these broader strategic considerations were examined before the attack, but in practice, results suggest that the second school of thought has proven itself,” the report, dated May 12, said. “It remains to be seen whether Iran has internalized the message of Israel’s resolve on the one hand and the weakness of its allies on the other.”
Yadlin, director of the institute and a former career air force officer, said the Israeli attack on May 3 and May 5 marked the first in a decade to stop the flow of Iranian missiles to Hizbullah. He said Israel identified four weapons systems that must not reach Hizbullah — advanced aerial defense systems, long range surface-to-surface missiles, the Yakhont shore-to-sea missile and chemical weapons.
The report said the Israeli attacks on Damascus — not claimed by Jerusalem — were successful in restoring deterrence against Iran, Hizbullah and Syria. Yadlin cited the war of survival by Syrian President Bashar Assad as well as Iran’s determination to protect its nuclear weapons program. “Yet even if there is no immediate massive response, Hizbullah, Iran, and at times even Syria sometimes display patience, keep their account ledgers open, and choose a delayed response, preferably far from the local arena where they risk escalation and Israel has good defensive capabilities,” the report said.
