Syria’s pro-Iranian Alawite minority has fallen. Syria’s ancient capital of Damascus was captured by the most formidable element of the anti-Assad coalition, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is led by the Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. The opposition rebel coalition is a patchwork of several political, ethnic, and religious groups, including jihadist and pro-West factions.

HTS, which staunchly rejected any negotiations with the Assad government, remains the likely kingmaker in any post-Assad-ruled Syria. Despite Western media re-broadcasts of Jolani’s recent messages “We come in peace,” Julani is suspected of remaining a committed Islamist who has vowed to establish an Islamic Republic in Syria. Historically, he has been an avowed enemy of the West and Israel. Julani was formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda and its spinoff, the al-Nusra Front. Western countries are testing if HTS has moderated. It would be prudent for the West to remember that HTS stands for the liberation of the entire Levant, which, in its contemporary context, includes not only Syria, but Lebanon, Israel (including Judea and Samaria), and Jordan as well.

But will Syria look the same on maps drawn up by the UN in 1946 when the country was declared an independent republic? How much of today’s Syria will remain following its having been picked apart by regional contending powers? Some of these powers are winners, others losers, in this sudden and surprising turn of events. Turkey, a major supporter of HTS appears the one nation-state most committed and equipped to feed on the Syrian carcass.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared in a troubling November 26, 2024, speech in Ankara that the West’s progress is built on “blood, tears, massacres, genocide, and exploitation.” Despite his alliance with NATO, Erdoğan’s remarks could have been written by Turkey’s jihadi proxy in Syria. “The West progress…is to the exclusion of the East’s civilization of divine and humane love.” The day will come when Western civilization “collapses with a great clamor, and Eastern civilization will flourish and rise up.”¹

Turkey has hosted at least three million Syrian refugees during the 12-year Syrian civil war. Moreover, Istanbul has been the site of several assemblies of Syrian opposition groups. Significantly, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has dispatched several pro-Turkish Kurdish militia units to seize several stretches of Syrian territory along Turkey’s southern border. Such jingoist projects serve Erdogan’s desire to be elected to another term despite his Justice and Development Party’s decline in popularity.

Russia and Iran, the former regime’s erstwhile supporters, are the losers in the fall of the Assad dictatorship. Russia’s failure to attack rebel forces or provide air support to the fleeing ranks of Assad’s troops is emphatic proof that the Kremlin sees the handwriting on the wall. The Russians will need to negotiate with the new sheriff in town, presumably to oversee Russia’s withdrawal from its Syrian air bases and naval facility. Moscow’s other option might be to support a Syrian mini-state on the Mediterranean Coast. The Alawites hold a majority in the coastal region of Latakia.

Iran withdrew its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Qods Force’s special advisors from Syria in still another setback for its strategy to light a circle of fire around Israel. The loss of Syria, combined with the Israeli evisceration of Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, has knocked the Islamic Republic even further back on its heels.

What Should Be Done Now?

Israel should leverage the regional chaos and confusion to bolster its own interests. It should not permit Turkey alone, to make territorial acquisitions and political gains. Israel should seize the UN-administered buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon opposite the Golan Heights. In fact, Israel should consider annexing any areas adjacent to its current Golan Heights territory, including Mt. Hermon peaks not under Israeli control now. These additional lands will be useful in defending against a prospective Islamization of Syria, which was a relatively secular country under Assad. Israel is in contact with the Syrian Druze community, which is close to the Israeli Druze community. The Syrian Druze recently occupied Syria’s southwestern region of Daara.

Syria’s large population of anti-Turkish Kurds might also serve as valuable allies to prevent, or at least impede, any determined imperial effort by Ankara to transform large portions of Syrian territory into Turkish fiefdoms. Kurdish areas in northern Syria have been under rebel attacks. Israel maintains good relations with the Kurds in northern Syria.

Of course, the incoming Trump administration will set its own policy in a post-Assad Syria. The United States has several mini-bases in northeastern Syria. American servicemen stationed in the area work with Kurdish militias and the Free Syrian Army. The Kurds help the U.S. forces to keep a lid on any revival attempts by Islamic State (ISIS) remnants.

U.S. President-elect Trump has already intimated that he is reluctant to get enmeshed in the Syrian imbroglio. Trump’s instincts also reflect the American people’s reluctance to get dragged into another forever war. However, President Trump, in consultation with Israeli allies, might devise a strategy that encourages American and Israeli enemies in crisis to struggle against one another while the forces of freedom remain vigilant and poised to exploit opportunities.

* * *

Notes

This week, the IDF announced that it had completed another raid on the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza. According to the IDF Spokesman, the hospital served as a “center for Hamas activities in the city.” This is not the first time the IDF has operated at the hospital. At the beginning of the war, the IDF arrested the hospital’s director, Ahmed al-Kahlout, who admitted during interrogation that he was recruited by Hamas nearly 15 years ago and held a rank equivalent to Brigadier General in the organization. He also revealed that the hospital housed offices for senior Hamas political and military officials, cells for holding hostages, and had its ambulances converted for use by Hamas military operatives.

Kamal Adwan Hospital, located at the edge of Jabalia and Beit Lahia, like the Indonesian Hospital – also in Jabalia, was repaired in recent months by several “aid organizations.” A few months ago, we exposed that at the beginning of the war, extensive Hamas activity was discovered at the nearby Indonesian Hospital. The findings there including the discovery of vehicles used in the Oct. 7th attack, vehicles with blood stains from Israeli hostages, and underground infrastructure. The hospital was later renovated by at “aid organization,” Taalouf Al-Khair.

A HaKol HaYehudi investigation uncovered that Taalouf Al-Khair is a Jordanian organization whose members explicitly supported Hamas and have called for war against Israel. The organization also deals with bringing “humanitarian aid” into Gaza.

 HaKol HaYehudi’s inquired about whether the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) approved the work by the aid organization, but COGAT has refused to respond. The IDF also carried out a second operation at the Indonesian Hospital after it was repaired. Thus, “aid organizations” belonging to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood’s overall network abroad have repaired medical centers in Gaza that then were used to support Hamas’ military efforts.

HaKol HaYehudi’s investigation revealed that Kamal Adwan Hospital, which served as a “center for Hamas activities in the city,” was recently repaired by an organization from Kuwait through a local affiliate in Gaza. The ‘Jamiat Tamniah Al-Khairiya’ organization from Kuwait published calls at the beginning of the war to support Gaza in its fight against Israel. In pictures from inside the hospital, a large image of the Temple Mount can be seen in the executive offices.

This latest operation represents the third time the IDF has operated in Jabalia, considered a  stronghold of Hamas’ military wing. The IDF first operated in the neighborhood about two weeks after the Oct. 7th massacre (October 26th to January 6th) towards the beginning of the war. Prior to the ceasefire and initial hostage release, the IDF operated mainly on the outskirts of Jabalia, and only after the ceasefire ended on December 1st, did activity in Jabalia resume. The IDF raided positions in the neighborhood and on December 16th even raided Kamal Adwan Hospital, which served as a Hamas base. Three days later, the IDF claimed it had “achieved operational control of Jabalia,” and two weeks later it announced that “the dismantling of Hamas’s military framework in northern Gaza was completed.”

In fact, according to estimates, tens of thousands of residents remained in Jabalia and did not evacuate despite IDF calls. These remaining residents served as human shields for Hamas, and limited IDF activity in the area to raids rather than a more thorough clearing of the area. According to the IDF Spokesman, in the first round of fighting in the neighborhood, Hamas’s underground network was hardly damaged.

About 4 months later, the IDF launched another operation in Jabalia (May 11th-31st) where the bodies of seven hostages murdered on Simchat Torah were uncovered. Hamas terrorists fired dozens of anti-tank missiles at the IDF soldiers who arrived this second time, revealing that the terrorists had managed to reorganize. According to the IDF spokesman, the IDF also operated in the Jabalia refugee camp and the Jabalia market, from which  Hamas clerics preached. According to a publication by Amir Bohbot, in the second round, the IDF estimated that there was one Hamas battalion in Jabalia, but discovered during the fighting that Hamas actually had about 3 battalions in the city. On May 28th, the IDF announced that Hamas’s military frameworks had been dismantled, and the remaining terrorists in Jabalia were fighting as individuals or in small teams, without a command and control structure. According to the IDF spokesman, during that second round of fighting, 600 terrorists were eliminated and about 12 km of tunnels were destroyed.

About 3 weeks ago, the IDF announced additional activity that began on the eve of the Sukkot holiday, potentially as part of the so-called ‘Generals’ Plan’, which proposes to empty northern Gaza of residents allowing the IDF to operate more aggressively against remaining Hamas terrorists. This latest operation was accompanied by a declaration to evacuate the population, and for the first time, Jabalia was largely emptied of its remaining residents who are largely Hamas-supporters. The remaining residents had been staying in shelters and hospitals renovated by the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated aid organizations, and were serving as human shields for Hamas military operatives in the hospitals.

During the operation, multiple IDF soldiers were killed, including Armored Brigade Commander Ehsan Daqsa, as Hamas had yet again managed to reconstitute in Jabalia. The remaining question is will Jabalia finally be held and controlled this time, or will this operation again prove to be a raid after which Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated aid organizations are allowed to help Hamas reconstitute?