Hamas Attacks Israel Air Force Bases

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January 12, 2009

The Middle East Newsline has uncovered that Hamas has succeeded in striking Israeli Air Force (IAF)â€ˆbases. Israeli military sources have confirmed that Hamas struck at least two air force bases within a 35-mile vicinity of Gaza.

The air force bases hit by Hamas rocket attacks were Tel Nof and Hatzerim.

Tel Nof has served as a base for the air force’s F-16 squadron.

“The rockets struck these bases but nobody was injured,” an Israeli military source said.

During the current conflict, Hamas has demonstrated a capability to fire rockets with at least a 30-mile range.

Israeli military sources expect that Hamas will acquire Iranian-origin rockets with a range of at least 45 miles by the end of this year.

A key concern, according to Israeli military sources said, was that Hamas would strike Israel’s commercial center in Tel Aviv and its Dimona nuclear facility – widely believed to be a key facility in Israel’s 40-year-old nuclear weapons program.

The IDF Situation in Gaza

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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January 12, 2009

Our current ground operation, stage two, is just about complete. Yet we’re not pulling out and we’re not bringing in all of the reserve units to move into stage three. Some reservists have been put into play and the operation late yesterday was referred to as stage 2-1/2, which may sound cute but strikes me as fairly meaningless.

We keep on hearing that we are “close” to achieving our goals, suggesting that we’re almost done. But those goals still have not been spelled out. Hamas is severely weakened but not out of play — still launching weapons, although many fewer than was the case a couple of weeks ago.

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As yet, even if we are close to finished, there is no clear exit strategy; no final arrangements for the day after have yet been put into place.

A contingent from Hamas in Gaza went to Cairo at the end of last week, and Egypt is handling negotiations for a ceasefire with them. There are elements within Hamas that are desperate for a cease fire. Others remain defiant and want to persist. According to David Horovitz, the Damascus contingent of Hamas (Mashaal and company) was somewhat out of touch with how bad things had become in Gaza and was then set straight by the negotiating mission, which went to Damascus from Cairo.

But there’s more to it than this: In Gaza, the people’s lives are on the line, and there is a need for leaders to stay hidden. In Damascus, the leadership is not coping with the same degree of stress and personal deprivation. They are content to continue to push their associates in Gaza to keep fighting.

Additionally, it has been reported by Egyptian sources that Iran is pushing Hamas not to settle for a ceasefire. Two Iranian officials, Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, and Said Jalili of the Iranian intelligence service, met in Damascus with Hamas politburo head Khaled Mashaal and Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ramadan Shallah.

“As soon as the Iranians heard about the Egyptian cease-fire initiative, they dispatched the two officials to Damascus on an urgent mission to warn the Palestinians against accepting it,” an Egyptian government official reported to the Post. “The Iranians threatened to stop weapons supplies and funding to the Palestinian factions if they agreed to a cease-fire with Israel.”

Thus would the Hamas contingent from Damascus be most persistent in holding out.

In Al-Hayat (London) yesterday, there was a report that while Hamas is still talking with Cairo, it has rejected the notion of a long term truce. They are apparently looking for quick fix to save their necks now.

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Ehud Olmert, according to Barak Ravid in Haaretz, is for continuing the operation. He says that we won’t stop until Hamas stops launching missiles and an end is put to smuggling.

Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak, says Ravid, would rather see us stop now.

This division of attitude seems reflected in the statement that we’re in stage “2-1/2” of the operation — neither here and neither there.

But from another source there is information that the “triumvirate” met last night and decided to push on.

Livni has indicated that she’s for a unilateral pullout by us, as this means we are not tied into any agreement and can return as we wish. She maintains that the Gaza offensive has “restored Israel’s deterrence” and “created a new equation… which says that when our citizens are attacked we respond with force.” And, she says, we have nothing to negotiate with Hamas, which is a terrorist organization.

Cannot say I would argue with this, as long as it doesn’t prompt premature departure. Agreements with Hamas officials are worthless, as they don’t honor their word (don’t really believe they have to, as we’re not Muslims). What matters is what we can impose upon them.

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There has been some suggestion that we might retain a presence in Gaza in a strip adjacent to our border, rather like the security zone we had for years in southern Lebanon. But there is nothing definitive with regard to this.

The idea of re-taking the Philadelphi Corridor does not seem to have gained traction.

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THE issue, beyond the question of whether we keep hitting Hamas or call it quits, is the matter of the smuggling.

Thus, when all is said and done, the most significant player here is Egypt, which is supposed to be working on a mechanism for stopping that smuggling. Theoretically, at least, it must be in place before we pull out.

In the course of the day today I’ve read information that says Egypt’s attitude has changed and we’re further along now in achieving the desired result of blocking smuggling.

But then I also read that there are major problems in working things out with Egypt. What we know is that Amos Gilad, who was supposed to return to Egypt today for further negotiations, has not gone.

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The report about a shift in Egypt’s attitude is true, however: Egypt is enormously sensitive about being accused of not having done enough to stop smuggling in the past. According to my best sources, the Mubarak administration has until now resisted the idea of working with foreign troops because this implies they are not capable of doing the job on their own.

Mubarak sought equipment only, with no foreign forces on his soil. When he requested this of the US, he was refused. But now he has had a visit from German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was also here. Steinmeier told Mubarak that Germany would supply the equipment and technical experts but make no demands regarding troops in the Sinai.

This message from Germany — which essentially is an expression of confidence in Egypt — has buoyed Mubarak’s willingness to help solve the issue of stopping the smuggling. This doesn’t mean he will now accept foreign troops on his soil, but that he’s exploring other alternatives. One of these involves foreign troops on the other side of the border. Previously, I’m told, he objected even to this. There is also talk revived of a moat at the Philadelphi Corridor, which would theoretically block the possibility of tunnels being re-dug; but there are complications with regard to ecological issues, as the canal would be filled with water.

But this all seems rather moot. For Mubarak is still insisting that he will cooperate only with the PA at the border, and Hamas is insisting there will be no PA there. And no foreign troops either.

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NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said yesterday that NATO has no plans to send troops to supervise a ceasefire in Gaza. Hoop Scheffer was here in Jerusalem and met with both Olmert and Livni. He indicated that NATO would be willing to play a peacekeeping role only if there existed a full-scale peace agreement, consent from both sides, and a UN mandate; and he wasn’t expecting this to happen any time soon.

I suspect this will be more typical than not: we’re not going to see foreign forces falling over themselves to come serve in Gaza — even if the situation ultimately allows for it.

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What is most unsettling with regard to this is a statement that was made by Amos Gilad on Israel radio yesterday. Gilad, head of the Defense Ministry’s political-security branch, said with regard to arrangements with Egypt to stop the smuggling, that results of talks with Egypt were not particularly relevant, and the Israeli public would know if Hamas had smuggled if rockets were fired from Gaza.

As Aaron Lerner of IMRA puts it:

“It would appear that as far as Gilad is concerned, should the Olmert-Livni-Barak team he represents strike an arrangement with Egypt, critics of the arrangement should have no ability to criticize it and the failure of the arrangement can only be determined when Hamas fires the rockets it smuggles in.”

This suggests that the government team would consider pulling out before solid guarantees are in place, and bury the negotiating failure in secrecy.

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Also greatly disconcerting is the news that Kadima held a secret poll on the second day of the war to assess how the fighting would affect the coming elections. This is not the way to fight a war — and it provides one more piece of evidence that the people running the government are no leaders at all.

I would hate to end up concluding that while I refrained from political observations, Olmert and Livni (most specifically Livni, who wants to be the next prime minister, I would guess) were motivated, as has been charged, by political considerations first.

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And yet one other mention of a political consideration here: This is from one source only, but a reliable one in the main. He is suggesting that the issue of getting Egypt to agree to foreign forces IN PRINCIPLE, whether they are ever put in place in Gaza or not, is important for Kadima, as Livni envisions doing this ultimately in Judea and Samaria.

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“Angst and Resolution”

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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January 11, 2009

From the start of this war, I was determined not to criticize the government, as long as it proceeded to do the right thing — never mind that our actions in our self-defense were severely over-due (and made necessary by the grievous error of the “disengagement” that Kadima promoted) and that there might be political motivation for some of what was happening. If it’s the right thing now, it’s the right thing. Time for critique could come later, if and as necessary.

Several times now, as we’ve progressed, I’ve expressed unease about whether the government might cave prematurely and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. There is ample precedent for being uneasy about the resolve of Olmert and company to see through our attempts to achieve victory, however that would be defined. Each time, I’ve been pleasantly surprised: we’re still fighting. Although again now I am uneasy (more about this following).

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Of course, the question of what defines a state of victory is still outstanding. There has been criticism in this country regarding a vagueness within the government about defining precisely what our goals are. But I’ve cut them slack on this score as well. I have considered the fact that there might be legitimate reasons for playing our cards close to the chest, as it were.

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Now, however, it is time, once again, to pause and take stock — look at where we’ve gone and where we need to go.

The fighting of the IDF has been superb. Lessons have been learned from 2006, and we’re a lean, mean fighting machine right now. As a result, we’ve dealt Hamas a really hard blow — although not yet hard enough, as I’ve been writing for some days now. What has been made clear is that there is a third stage that has been planned by the IDF that would hit Hamas even harder.

The UN Security Council Resolution last Thursday had the potential to bring what we were doing to a halt. Our Security Cabinet opted not to accept the resolution — presumably because Hamas refused to accept it and actually responded by launching 25 rockets into our south, and because the Egyptians turned out to be all talk and — refusing foreign forces on their soil — without solid plans for stopping the smuggling.

We announced that we were going ahead, and we dropped leaflets on the south of Gaza announcing that escalation could be expected. But we haven’t moved additional reserve troops — who have been trained and are ready — into Gaza and we haven’t begun a genuine intensification of our military actions. It’s been more of the same — which can continue just so long, even though we are still hitting the houses of Hamas leaders, taking out tunnels, etc. What is being done now is to put the soldiers in a static situation, which is not acceptable. Saying we’ll probably move ahead, either in the south or into Gaza City, is not the same as actually doing it.

On Monday, Amos Gilad, head of the Ministry of Defense Diplomatic-Security Bureau, is going back to Cairo to discuss Egyptian plans for stopping the smuggling. For even as it’s being said that we’re probably going to keep going, so is it being said that if Egypt comes up with “satisfactory” plans (involving foreign forces) we’ll stop. (There is some suggestion that if we do escalate our efforts, it will be to “convince” Egypt to cooperate on the matter of international forces.)

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So there’s a feeling of “uh oh.” And what has to be asked is if satisfactory plans are even possible and, if so, what they would be. Olmert is moving as if there is the possibility of satisfactory plans. I, along with many others, remain exceedingly dubious. The model of UNIFIL stares us in the face. Which international forces would risk themselves, for Israel’s sake, in confrontation with those who dig tunnels and transport weapons through them? None come readily to mind.

Coupled with this is the issue of Egypt resenting the implication that it cannot go it alone, so that the international forces on Egyptian soil might be loathe to point out how remiss Egypt is.

There is, when all is said and done, a huge possibility that this would be a charade.

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And in addition there is this factor: The notion has been touted that the PA should resume its presence at the Philadelphi Corridor, which it maintained — without real success at monitoring smuggling — from the fall of 2005, when we pulled out, until June 2007, when Hamas took over.

I figure PA forces would last about a day there now, because Hamas has said they wouldn’t be tolerated.

And Abbas knows this, too: he has now said that the PA would take control again at the crossing into the Sinai only after reconciliation with Hamas. There’s no great chance of that happening any time soon, as Hamas sees the PA as complicit with Israel in the current war. Never mind that Egypt is trying to get Hamas to agree to this “plan.”

Abbas, for his part, is pushing for an international force inside of Gaza. This won’t fly with Hamas either, as it has said that any international troops inside of Gaza would be attacked as occupiers.

This over-view of the situation makes it clear what a total balagan (state of confusion) it is.

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And there’s even more to be considered:

Can we necessarily assume that if Olmert and Livni, who touted resolution 1701, say that a plan Egypt is proposing is a good plan, it truly is? I, for one, would not rely on this. Might our government seek a way out of further fighting by accepting a plan that has significant flaws? This is the question that nags at us, although we have no evidence of this now. Even with the best of intentions, are they all too ready to rely on international guarantees? Possibly. Although Olmert’s position now is that we must rely on ourselves.

And if we want to stop fighting, what would the parameters be for doing so? Would we actually stop unilaterally, as has been proposed? The mere suggestion of this is highly offensive.

If we want Hamas to stop too, there are two ways to get it to do so. Either we beat it down sufficiently — as General Kupervasser, whom I cited last week, suggests — which necessarily means further fighting. Or we give Hamas something — that something being permanent opening of crossings from Israel into Gaza, allowing Hamas the normalization it is seeking.

This would be counterproductive to all of our goals and would give Hamas the opportunity to say it has won. Would we, at a bare minimum, require return of Gilad Shalit first? It would be to our everlasting shame if we did not.

Hardly a simple situation.

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And there is yet one other parameter to consider: Would it be a good thing for Israel if we were to totally and fully defeat Hamas? My answer to this has been, and remains, that it would not. The goal of the international community is to ensconce the PA in Gaza once again, and then to lean on us to make “peace” with the PA that would once again be in control of all “Palestinian territory.”

In fact, it is not only the international community that is pushing this, but also our foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. And it is with regard to this that I have absolutely no compunction about criticizing, war or no war. She has suggested on several occasions, most recently in an interview that ran in the Washington Post last week, that we are fighting so that moderate forces can be restored in Gaza, forces with whom we can make peace. And I consider the notion that we would lose a single one of our boys for any reason other than to protect our own rights an obscenity. We are not fighting for Mahmoud Abbas, and a Palestinian state would serve us only ill.

This, by the way, is where I take issue with Charles Krauthammer’s article on the issue, which has been sent to me by multiple persons.

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So, where does this leave us? Is there no answer? I think perhaps there is. This is not original with me: I am merely drawing on what seems most reasonable.

First, we must hit Hamas with additional fighting power. General Kupervasser, who served with IDF Intelligence, says they can be pushed into a situation in which they will halt their aggression, whether permanently or temporarily is up for discussion.

And then, we need to re-take the Philadelphia Corridor, which we should never have left. There is no way that Hamas can claim a “win” if we are sitting there. And in this instance, instead of depending on Egypt and some obscure international force to ensure that there is no smuggling of arms, we protect ourselves — which is precisely how it should be.

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I have no information that the IDF is planning this. But I do know that it is being promoted in significant circles. As I’ve previously mentioned, Maj.-Gen.(res) Yom-Tov Samia — who was head of the Southern Command of the IDF from 2001 until 2004, and is now advising the current head of the Southern Command, Maj.-Gen. Yoav Galant — has urged that we return to the Corridor and stay for 25 years. David Horovitz, editor of the Jerusalem Post, seems to support this idea, as does Dr. Aaron Lerner, head of IMRA.

Please see here for an analysis of this approach, with background and an extremely useful map. This is by IDF veteran and commentator on defense issues, David Eshel (with thanks to Joel Kangisser):
http://www.defense-update.com/newscast/0109/analysis/100109_philadelphi.html

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In brief, then, today’s news:

Olmert, and I must give him this credit, is still saying the right things. At today’s Cabinet meeting, he declared:

“No country in the world, including those that preach morals to us, would have shown restraint as we have. We knew this wouldn’t be simple, and what is acceptable for every other country in the world is barely accepted when it comes to Israel.

“Israel is approaching the targets it has set for itself, but more patience, determination and courage are needed for us to achieve those goals in a way that will change the security reality in the south, and for our citizens to feel long-term security and stability.

“We must not miss out last minute on what was achieved in an unprecedented national effort to restore the spirit of unity to the people of Israel. The Israeli public, and mainly the residents of the south in the Home Front, have the patience and will for this – as does the government.

“… We have never allowed anyone to decide for us whether we are allowed to strike those that hurl bombs at our kindergartens and schools and we never will agree to that in the future.

“No resolution that was made or will be made in the future that will deprive us of our basic right to defend the residents of Israel.”

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The IDF is reporting that whole Hamas battalions have been wiped out. In addition, the Hamas fighters, who are vicious and devious, are also showing themselves to be cowardly. Not only are they in hiding, some are beginning to desert. Yesterday, we took out Amr Mansi, a rocket chief for the Gaza City area. We were able to target him because his subordinates refused his orders to come out of hiding to fire mortar shells at Israeli soldiers, so he did it himself, and was hit.

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Overnight, we attacked the house of Hamas military commander Ahmad Jabari in Sajiya. We also struck some 60 additional terror targets including a mosque in Rafah that was used as a training camp and a storage facility for anti-aircraft missiles.

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According to Carmela Menashe, military correspondent for Voice of Israel radio, the IDF wants to continue the war until the end of the month and is prepared to do so.

Note: This is the military intention, not necessarily what the political leaders will decide.

Note also: This would bring us past the January 20th inauguration date.

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This is fairly astonishing, and a sign of the shift in the larger political situation in the Middle East:

Israel National News reports that, according to the Saudi Gazette, Saudi Arabia has promised that it will not use oil as a weapon against Israel because of its war against Hamas in Gaza. “You can’t reverse a conflict by using oil,” declared the Saudi Foreign Minister.

Says INN, the Gazette also stated, in a separate report, that the war in Gaza is a proxy battle between Western allies and Iran.

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Hamas leaders are offering their usual bluster. Mashaal, Hamas politburo head in Damascus, has declared his fighting forces to be at full strength, even as he says we are committing a “holocaust” in Gaza.

He gave us a moment of unintended amusement when he announced that because of our acts we have ruined the opportunity to make peace with Hamas.

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Head of Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, today reported to the Cabinet that the number of rockets launched from Gaza since the beginning of the war has been fewer than had been anticipated.

Hamas is still fighting, however, and rockets — including Grad Katyushas — are being launched at our south. There have been Grads launched today at Beersheva, where a car was hit, near a kindergarten (thankfully empty!) in Ashkelon, and in Ashdod, next to an apartment building, as well as in other locations: Kiryat Malachi, Netivot, Eshkol regions, etc.

The comment has been made that the miracles continue, for these rockets are lethal and yet our people in the main have escaped injury — through the grace of G-d, and care that is taken to seek shelter. May this continue.

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Hamas attacks, it should be noted, continued today during the three hour daily ceasefire we are honoring to allow relief to go into Gaza. Is anyone in the international community (and especially UNRWA) taking note of this?

There is a perpetual double standard at work, with Palestinians, whether Hamas or Fatah, cut slack. Does anyone care when Hamas is oblivious to civilian needs, or, since they are terrorists, is it simply assumed they will act as they do?

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The Israeli Air Force reports that there have been attempts by Hamas to damage our aircraft, utilizing anti-aircraft missiles. Our pilots are aware of the situation and act in accordance with specified guidelines.

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A spokeswoman for Barak Obama denies the report that Obama will deal quietly with Hamas that appeared in the Guardian on Friday.

In fact, Obama has just said that, “I think that a basic principle of any country is that they’ve got to protect their citizens.”

He has indicated that he is preparing his team to be immediately engaged, after January 20, in a Middle East peace process.

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Please, see this really excellent YouTube video with a different and powerful slant, and share it widely (thanks Ruthie L.):
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=83aJj72UjlM

Also please see the IDF YouTube site and bookmark it for future reference. This is not only informative, I’ve been advised that YouTube would just as soon take it down, using the fact that it’s not being accessed as an excuse:
http://www.youtube.com:80/user/idfnadesk

Secrecy Surrounds Senator Specter’s Visit to Damascus

By

David Bedein

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January 10, 2009

The interview that follows was conducted with Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA.) when he visited Israel, en route to Damascus.

Despite Senator Specter’s willingness to engage in an open and frank discussion before his visit to Syria, Senator Specter has not yet been willing to answer the following questions about his visit to Damascus:

What was the Syrian president’s response to the issue of the three MIA’s? (Ok, the Senator raised the question. How did Assad react?
Will Assad recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Galilee?
Did you ask Assad about whether he would adjust Syrian school boks to recognize the state of Israel?
Did you ask Assad to police narcotics traffic that emanates from Syria?

US Senator Speaks With ‘Bulletin’ While In Israel By David Bedein, Middle East Correspondent Published:
http://www.thebulletin.us/articles/2008/12/31/top_stories/doc495b63288774c364278980.prt

Wednesday, December 31, 2008 Jerusalem – A pro forma announcement of the Israeli President’s office that U.S Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) was meeting with the Israeli president tipped off The Bulletin that the senator, ranking Republican member of the U.S. Senator Foreign Relations Operations Subcommittee and former chairman of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, was indeed in Jerusalem.

Mr. Specter’s office did not announce the timing or purpose of the visit.

After The Bulletin sent 10 inquiries to know the purpose of the visit, Mr. invited The Bulletin and two other news agencies to meet with him at his hotel, where Pennsylvania’s senior senator made a dramatic announcement. He had been asked by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to carry a message from Mr. Olmert to Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Mr. Specter, making his 17th journey to Syria, said that he would not disclose the message that he delivers from Mr. Olmert until Mr. Assad sees the letter.

Mr. Olmert, who has tendered his resignation under a cloud of corruption charges, has said he wants to use his remaining time in office to advance peace gestures with Syria, which has been in a state of war with Israel since the inception of the Jewish state in 1948.

Mr. Specter said Syria wanted the strategic Golan heights back, which was taken by Israel in the 1967 war, and the senator defined other conditions for peace with Syria. Those conditions are: allowing Lebanon to function as an independent nation, stop transferring Iranian arms to Hezbollah and to cut off aid to Hamas.

On the issue of the Golan, Mr. Specter, as an expert on Syria, was asked by the Bulletin if he had the impression Syria was ready to recognize the Upper Galilee region as a sovereign part of Israel, since Israel conquered the Golan to stop Syria from using the Golan Heights to stage attacks on the farms and cities of the Upper Galilee region.

Mr. Specter turned to his aide and asked him to remind him to raise the issue with President Assad.

In a follow-up question, the Bulletin asked Mr. Specter if Syria was ready to change its new school books, which define Israel as “southern Syria”.

The question surprised the senator. His aide asked for reference to the Syrian school books, since Mr. Specter has already held hearings in the US Senate about the incitement in the school books of Saudi Arabia and incitement in the school books of the Palestinian Authority.

Asked if it would be possible to draw a wedge between Syria and Iran, Mr. Specter said that he thought “it would be very difficult” to draw Syria out of Iran’s orbit, because the ties go back “a long way.” But, he said, “it is an evolving picture, and interests change. I think Syria would definitely like a closer relationship with the US. I have always been an advocate of diplomacy.”

In addition to pushing for talks with Syria, Mr. Specter has for many years advocated talking with the Iranians. He took issue with a suggestion made earlier this month by House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Howard Berman that any dialogue with Iran be of a limited duration, perhaps three months, so Tehran didn’t use it as cover to pursue their nuclear program.

“I think the dialogue ought to last however long the dialogue needs to last,” he said. “I would hope that it would last and be successful, and lead to diplomatic relations, and peaceful terms, and to a new Iranian president who doesn’t want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, that’s what I would like.”

Asked whether the Iranians would use the talks as a cover to move their nuclear program forward, Mr. Specter said, “They are going to move that forward whether we like it or not”â€¨ â€¨Specter said that it needed to be communicated to the Iranians “in unmistakable terms that it is unacceptable for them to have a nuclear weapon, but I don’t think we are well advised to say anything beyond that. No threats, no implied threats, just that it is unacceptable.”

Regarding the current hostilities in Gaza, Mr. Specter said that he did not think Israel was using disproportionate force, and said Israel was just seeking to remove the Hamas threat.

Mr. Specter said he believed American support for the Israeli operation would continue, and President George W. Bush had made it clear Washington saw Hamas as the provocateur.

As the briefing drew to a close, the Bulletin asked Mr. Specter a question in the personal realm.

Since Mr. Specter has presented himself throughout his entire career as both and proud American and a proud Jew, how did he cope with meeting with some of the most virulent anti-semites of this generation?

Among them were Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi, Syrian president Assad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Mr. Specter choked up for a moment and said he spoke with each of these leaders with “dignity and respect” with people whom you do not have to agree with and that his response to them is “cordial and blunt”.

Assessments of the Middle East NewsLine

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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January 10, 2009

Welcome to Middle East Newsline, a defense news service by independent journalists with a real understanding of the region.

Our correspondents gather information from Ankara, Athens, Amman, Cairo, Jerusalem, London, Moscow, Nicosia, Ramallah and Washington on developments in the Middle East as well as on issues that affect the region. These issues include weapons sales and development, strategic business deals in defense and energy, and threat environment, such as terrorism and insurgency.

Middle East Newsline is not just an assembly line of information. Its focus is strategic and the service concentrates on actual developments and trends rather than on passing rhetoric. The result is news of significance. News you can use.

Our coverage for news and information goes beyond the region. We cover Russia because of its close military and political ties to the Middle East. We cover North Korea because it is regarded as one of the active weapons proliferators in this region. We cover Congress because its hearings contain valuable information on the Middle East as well as weapons programs that affect it.

The greatest strength of Middle East Newsline is its regional focus. We report on Israel’s military, strategic programs and relations with its neighbors. We closely follow developments in the Palestinian Authority, which appears on the verge of statehood. Our service also monitors Islamic fundamentalism and particularly its ties with other groups in the West. Our aim is to address two issues to our clients: the defense market in the Middle East and the threats that drive weapons sales.

Currently, we provide our subscribers with full online access to updated news and archives and a choice of two E-mail services: Daily Edition and Weekly Defense. Our clients are largely professionals who want us to cut away the fluff and just provide the significant developments and trends that do not appear in the general press. The result is a concentrated but easy read that brings you a daily comprehensive picture of the region.

We also provide strategic country profiles as well as customized reports on virtually any issue in the Middle East. Most of these reports can be prepared within a week of order.

Middle East Newsline is directed by Steve Rodan, a journalist with more than 20 years experience who has worked for U.S., European, Arab and Israeli newspapers, radio and television. Rodan is fluent in Arabic and Hebrew and has won awards for investigative and enterprise reporting. He was one of the first journalists to write on Iran’s missile and nuclear weapons programs, Israeli-Russian joint defense marketing, and the first to document Egyptian-North Korean missile cooperation. He has provided exclusives to such publications as Jane’s Defense Weekly in London, Defense News in Washington, Military Technology in Bonn, The Jerusalem Post in Israel, The Sunday Express in London and Le Nouvelles Actuelles in Paris. He has traveled extensively and is both an expert of the region as well as a specialist on military and strategic issues

January 9, 2009

It might not be over until the fat lady sings, but Hamas has already made history. The Islamic regime absorbed massive Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip and kept firing missiles on cities throughout southern Israel.

More important, it has been Israel rather Hamas that is now seeking a ceasefire. Hamas has shown it could mobilize Arabs and Muslims against their regimes throughout the Middle East while maintaining strong support from such rivals as Iran and Saudi Arabia. Most important, Hamas has proven that it can play the military and diplomatic game even better than Hizbullah in 2006. Today, Hamas has graduated into a strategic threat to Israel and a model for Sunni regimes throughout the region. Welcome to 2009.

January 10, 2009

If there has been one Middle East country of which can be said has been on its best behavior lately, it is Iran. Despite repeated assurances from its friends in the West, Teheran until the end remained concerned that U.S. President George Bush would order a last-minute air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. With President-elect Obama in Washington and Bush cleaning out his closets in the White House, that threat appears to have passed. This,more than anything else explains the low Iranian profile during the Hamas-Israel war. Western intelligence agencies agree that 2009 marks the transformation of Iran into a nuclear power. Then watch Iran’s regional and international profile soar.

Israeli General: Let The Israeli Army Win

By

David Bedein

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January 9, 2009

The commander of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in the Gaza Strip, southern regional commander, Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant, has called on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to authorize expanding the operation to its third phase.

The phase would include sending large numbers of reserve troops into Gaza and taking over large portions of the territory. Mr.â€¨Galant told the senior Israel Ministry of Defense leadership the IDF can achieve a “decisive situation” against Hamas without being forced to take Gaza in its entirety.

Expanding the operation, he told Mr. Olmert and Mr. Barak, would come at the cost of soldiers’ lives and would require extending the reservists’ terms of duty. However, it would solve southern Israel’s security problems for many years to come. â€¨â€¨

He said the operation has created a “once in a generation” opportunity to solve the problem of Hamas.

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“If we don’t do that we’ll be missing an historic opportunity,” Maj. Gen. Galant said. He he anticipates that ending the operation at its current stage would result in quiet along the Gaza front for a number of years. During that time period Hamas would likely resume its rearmament and, and Tel Aviv would then fall within range of their rockets. â€¨â€¨

He also addressed efforts to persuade Egypt to take â€¨more effective actions to prevent arms smuggling on the Philadelphi Road. “Israel,” he said, “can only count on the IDF.” â€¨â€¨â€¨

Preparing For Intensified Army Activity â€¨

IDF troops are preparing for activity at a level of intensity that has not yet been seen. â€¨â€¨On Saturday, the IDF warned the Palestinians to prepare â€¨themselves for a possible offensive. Leaflets that were distributed throughout Gaza announced an “escalation in the army’s operations.” â€¨â€¨

“In the near future,” the leaflets read, “the IDF will continue to â€¨attack tunnels, weapons caches and terrorist activists with mounting â€¨intensity throughout the entire Gaza Strip. For the sake of your safety â€¨and the safety of your family you are required to refrain from remaining â€¨in proximity to terrorist elements or places in which weapons are stored â€¨or terrorist actions are perpetrated. You should continue to heed the â€¨instructions that are given to you… “

Throughout the weekend, only a small number â€¨of engagements between IDF troops and Hamas fighters occurred, resulting in seven soldiers sustaining light injuries. The troops were mainly engaged in â€¨clearing the areas now under their control from bombs and in breaking â€¨any routines so as to impede any efforts by the terrorists to strike at â€¨the troops. â€¨â€¨

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) attacked some 60 targets, including 10 rocket-launching sites, five tunnels that served for arms smuggling and 14 ammunition â€¨storehouses and weapons production sites. Golani Brigade soldiers killed â€¨a suicide bomber in the northern Gaza Strip who was armed with a bomb â€¨belt. â€¨

IDF Troops Kill Leader Of Rocket Forces â€¨â€¨

Amir Mansi, who was defined as the commander of the rocket crews in â€¨the Gaza City area, was among the 50 terrorists who were killed by IDF forces over weekend. He was among the more important Hamas officials who had been believed to have been involved with the BM-21 Grad rocket attacks against Israel. IDF officials say that Mansi came under fire after he was identified firing mortar shells at Israel.

Mansi, who was trained by Hezbollah, was killed on the spot, and two terrorists who were with him were hit.

According to eyewitnesses who were nearby when the incident took â€¨place, Mansi, 28, was seen walking in the streets of Gaza City â€¨late on Saturday afternoon. Several minutes later, as Mansi was â€¨passing by a school in the northern Gaza Strip, a powerful â€¨explosion that shook the street and its inhabitants was heard. The same eyewitnesses recalled that a missile fired by the IDF scored â€¨a direct hit on him. â€¨

Mansi, one of the greatest Palestinian experts on rocket launching, was killed instantly. â€¨

Mansi was the son of Yusuf Mansi, â€¨the communications minister in the Hamas government, also considered a religious extremist figure. â€¨

An Israeli security source described the hit as a heavy blow to â€¨Hamas. “This is a figure of the first rank on Hamas’ team,” the source said. “He was a particularly knowledgeable expert on operating Grad rockets. â€¨Operating a long-range rocket is much more complicated than the Qassam â€¨rocket, and so he was in charge of the training and launches.” â€¨

A high-ranking commander in the Gaza sector added, “We are seeing â€¨people deserting and going AWOL among Hamas’ combat personnel. They are â€¨afraid to go out and fight. Therefore, today we saw Amir Mansi, a â€¨high-ranking man in high trajectory fire launches, whose subordinate â€¨did not go out to launch rockets, so he went out to launch them â€¨himself.”

A security source in Gaza assessed that Mansi had been forced to fire the mortars himself because his troops had refused. Mansi allegedly had no choice, and he was forced to go out and fire the mortar shells himself. â€¨

IDF officials said they believed 300 Hamas fighters had been killed in battles with IDF troops – in addition to the others who had beenâ€¨killed in IAF strikes that were carried out in the week preceding the ground operation.

A high-ranking Israeli officer said Hamas has suffered hundreds of casualties from the range of fighting.

“There are entire companies and battalions that have simply been wiped out,” he â€¨said. “We’ve also identified fear among activists to make an appearance â€¨that might endanger them when dealing with IDF soldiers. Only when theâ€¨Hamas people stick their heads out of their bunkers will they realize â€¨the magnitude of the destruction that Israel has caused them.”

The IAF also attacked last night the home of Ahmed Jaabri, the commander of Hamas’ military wing, in Gaza City’s Sajaiya neighborhood. The IDF has attacked some 60 targets in Gaza since last night, including tunnels and a mosque that served as a weapons storehouse where a machinegun and shells had been stored.

IDF officials also allege that the mosque served as a â€¨training ground and a meeting place for Hamas activists. â€¨ â€¨ â€¨

Diplomatic Maneuvering

In the meantime, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in Israel yesterday, after having met with with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo Saturday.

He told the Egyptian leader Germany was prepared to send a team to Egypt that would examine how to prevent arms smuggling. The Italians also voiced their willingness to send troops, as did NATO, which announced that it would help address the arms smuggling routes from Iran to Gaza. â€¨

Israel Accuses: Condoleezza Worked Against Us â€¨

Relations between Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice were warm until a short time ago, but two days ago something changed. During the night between Thursday and Friday, when the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire, Ms. Livni spoke with Ms. Rice seven times – tough conversations with raised voices. â€¨

Israeli officials accused Ms. Rice of having worked behind Israel’s â€¨back and of having been the “engine” behind the wording of the Security â€¨Council’s resolution, contrary to the promises that she gave to Israel.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s dramatic appeal to President George W. Bush last Friday at 3:30 a.m., where Mr. Olmert demanded that the Americans veto the resolution – caused Bush to force Ms. Rice to abstain from voting although she had wanted to support it from the beginning. â€¨

A tough conversation between Ms. Livni and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband also erupted. Israeli officials claim that Mr. Miliband was theâ€¨ one who put pressure on the French to hold the vote on Thursday nightâ€¨ and not postpone it by 24 hours, as the Americans and the â€¨ â€¨ â€¨

IAF Commander Sets Personal Example And Bombs Gaza â€¨

In the initial stages of the current IDF operations, were complaints existed about how Israeli commanders had been watching events unfold on their computer screens instead of leading their troops on the battlefield. This reminded many people of the 2006 War in Lebanon, when Israeli military commanders chose to remain in their command posts near the border fence.

As the past two weeks have transpired, IDF commanders have worked to change that image.

Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan personally took part in one of the air strikes on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. Mr. Nehushtan, formerly an F-16 squadron commander, flew in the plane he knew so well from the days when he commanded the squadron at the IAF’s Hatzor base.

The IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, has been seen in the combat zone in the Gaza Strip, and Mr. Galant accompanied IDF Armored Corps troops from the 401st Brigade, while other high-ranking commanders have also begun to set a personal example and have gotten into the fray of things along with their subordinates. â€¨

In addition, Israel Navy Commander Maj. Gen. Eliezer (Cheney) Marom was aboard an Israel Navy missile boat off the Gaza coast, while Maj. Gen. Gadi Shamni also entered the battlefield when he came to visit the troops from the 401st Brigade, which is subordinate to him.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com

Israel Scores Initial Victories In Gaza War

By

David Bedein

-

January 9, 2009

During Thursday’s Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations, the Israeli army targeted, identified and killed Islamic Jihad terrorists who in recent days launched rockets into Israel including, Nasser Halil Hassan Ouda, 21; Muhammad Faez Yadeb Hanedi, 24; Anwar Abed al-Hafiz Abu Salem, 23.

Israeli ground troops encountered and shot armed gunmen in several different incidents.

On Thursday morning, an Israeli officer, Maj. Roi Rosner, 27, from Holon, Israel, was killed when an anti-tank missile hit Israeli troops from the Kfir infantry brigade.

On Thursday afternoon, Sgt. Amit Robinson, 21, a tank crewman from kibbutz Magal, was killed Thursday by sniper fire in Northern Gaza.

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The Israel Air Force (IAF) attacked approximately 25 targets, including: â€¨

Nine Weaponry storehouses, most of them hidden under the homes of Hamas terrorists;
Weapons smuggling tunnels;
Four rocket launching sites;
A vehicle carrying a rocket launcher;
Two Hamas outposts;
and five cadres of armed terrorists operatives, some of which fired at Israeli forces.

On Wednesday night, the IAF attacked a number of targets, based on IDF and Israel Securities Authority (ISA) intelligence, including the house of Yaser Natat, who commands the rocket-firing program in the Rafah area, and the house of Muhammad Sanuar, the commander of the Hamas “Han Yunes Brigade.”

The Middle East Newsline confirmed the IAF had knocked out the Hamas government’s telecommunications facilities in Gaza.

Hamas has lost its entire cellular phone system, operated by PaTel, the Palestinian telephone system, due to IAF attacks, as well as most of its landlines. Its secure communications system has now been totally disrupted by Israel’s military.

PalTel reported that at least three of its technicians were killed during the war.

The IAF also knocked out Hamas’ military communications systems. Over the last two years, Hamas’ military wing operated the Senao system of Taiwanese origin, which is meant to prevent interception or jamming. It was comprised of two-way handheld wireless radios with a range of 35 miles.

Hamas military leaders have been forced to cease most of their communications with field units, and messages are now transmitted through couriers or walkie-talkies.

“This [walkie-talkie] is also becoming difficult because we are running out of batteries,” a Hamas operative said.

The Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has said the IAF has combined manned and unmanned aircraft to target and strike Hamas operatives and facilities throughout the Gaza Strip. CSIS, said to be close to members of the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama, said the air force has eroded much of the Hamas command structure.

“One should not underestimate Israeli success in purely militaryâ€¨ terms,” the CSIS report, titled “The Fighting in Gaza: How Does It End?” said. “The IAF flew roughly 150 sorties on December 27, the first day, and over 100 the next three days. Hamas quickly dispersed both its personnel and weapons and equipment, but the IAF has continued to have excellent targeting support from its unmanned aerial vehicles and other technical intelligence assets, and support from anti-Hamas elements inside and outside of Gaza.”

The report, authored by former Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman, said Israeli air strikes have eroded Hamas’ military command. Mr. Cordesman cited such air force targets as Hamas weapons tunnels, shelters and other facilities.

“The IAF may not be able to find and hit every target, and some tunnels and sheltered areas, yet Hamas has clearly lost some key leaders and is losing most of its key facilities and much of its equipment,” the report said. “It may be able to fire limited numbers of rockets indefinitely into the future, but it will lose a significant amount of its weapons, as well as its training facilities and communications facilities.”

Mr. Cordesman said that Hamas has failed to reach the military capabilities of the Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah. The report said Hamas does not have the training, experience or the equipment of the Lebanese-based militia.

“Hamas is not Hezbollah,” the report said. “It has not fought the IDF for years. Its forces are limited in training and experience, and do not seem to have had anything like Hezbollah’s access to the more modern and lethal man-portable and crew-served weapons – although it may well have some anti-tank guided weapon and portable surface to air missiles in reserve.”

CSIS determined that the Israeli military could quickly overpower Hamas in urban strongholds in the Gaza Strip. The report cited the lack of a Hamas military infrastructure, hampered by the refusal of the rival Fatah movement to battle Israel.

“For all of the talk about the difficulties of house-to-house fighting, it is important to note that most urban combat is over quickly unless both sides have extensive combat equipment and support capabilities, and that insurgent defenders generally take massive losses relative to the attacker,” the report said. “Hamas may inflict casualties in a few clashes, but it also has not yet demonstrated that it can bring together any kind of broad Palestinian resistance that has any effectiveness.”

Mr. Cordesman said the Israeli army would not be required to attack all Hamas strongholds, because the Israeli military could rely on its air force to flatten suspected Hamas facilities in urban areas.

“It [Israeli military] can secure and isolate such strong points, attack only those strong points that have key value, and use airpower instead of house-to-house fighting,” the report said. “The problems the IDF faces because it was committed to a static war against far better defended areas long the Israeli-Lebanese border do not apply in Gaza, and Israel has had two years in which to retrain and improve its capabilities for joint warfare. Unless its political leadership repeats the mistakes of 2006, it does not need to fight the wrong kind of urban warfare.”

Still, Mr. Cordesman appeared to dismiss the prospect that Israel’s military would stabilize the Gaza Strip, and doubts Israel’s military will defeat Hamas or its insurgency allies.

“While no one should judge the outcome of any clash or series of battles before they are over, the more serious question will be whether IDF tactical successes have lasting strategic value, and produce any kind of stable political outcome,” the report said. “The deafening silence of the Israeli government in describing the broader goals behind Israel’s operations raise much more serious questions here than its military operations to date. It seems very unlikely, however, that any amount of Israeli tactical success can – by itself – bring an end to the war process.”

Israel’s current defense minister, Ehud Barak, was a research fellow at the CSIS during the six-month period after he completed his term of office as the commander in chief of the IDF on Dec. 31, 1994. After that, Mr. Barak entered Israeli politics and served as the interior minister, foreign minister and prime minister of Israel.

Diplomatic Initiatives:

The Director of the Political-Security Staff in the Israel Defense Ministry Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad made a short visit to Egypt on Thursday morning to discuss Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s cease-fire plan. However, the Israeli government security cabinet instructed the IDF to exhaust the second stage of the operation in the Gaza Strip until it becomes clear whether the diplomatic measures initiated by Egypt and France are leading to a cease-fire. Sources in the Israeli government confirm that if the diplomatic talks fail, the prime minister will convene the security cabinet in order to approve the third stage of the operation and its expansion.

The London based al-Hayat newspaper reports that Mr. Mubarak had invited Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to meet with him in order to discuss the Egyptian cease-fire initiative. The item said Mr. Olmert said he would come to Egypt after the security cabinet meets.

Talks are also underway for a meeting between Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, who will meet with President Mubarak in Cairo on Saturday.

The U.N. Security Council has come to no agreement. Libya demands that the Security Council vote on a resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire. The U.S., U.K. and France wish to issue a statement rather than a binding resolution. Such a statement requires the agreement of all 15 members of the council. The statement that the three powers has offered emphasizes the need for a sustainable cease-fire that will include guarantees that arms smuggling to the Gaza Strip will be prevented.

However, Hamas has rejected any and all initiatives for a cease-fire that have emanated from Egypt and France.

Northern Israel Attacked

On Thursday morning, a second front opened up against Israel. At least three Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon on the city Nahariya area in the Western Galilee. A nursing home suffered a direct hit. Fortunately, all of the elderly residents were sitting in the breakfast hall when the attack occurred on Thursday morning. The rocket hit the roof of the building, penetrating to through the ceiling and crashing into the kitchen, destroying its water and electrical system.

Following the attack, all Nahariya school children were instructed not to report to school.

Within a few hours, the IDF shelled rocket-launching sites in Lebanon with artillery fire. Israeli security sources said that they believed that a pro-Palestinian was involved in the attack, and not by Hezbollah. Afat Mora, a Hamas spokesman in Lebanon, said on Thursday that his organization was not involved in the Katyusha fire.”

The Nahariya attack caused the Israeli Army Northern Command to convene for an urgent meeting to evaluate the situation, to discuss the possibility that the northern region could flare up if armed groups in Lebanon were to decide to launch attacks to show their solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza.

Senior intelligence officers, headed by IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, warned earlier this week that Hezbollah or another Palestinian group in Lebanon might attempt to open a second front against Israel in light of the fighting in the Gaza.

Civilian Front: An Interim Assessment

With the second week of Israel’s Gaza Incursion coming to a close, initial insights about Israel’s civilian front have emerged.

In the first six days of the operation, 182 improvised Qassam rockets and 65 standard Grad katyusha rockets were launched against Israeli civilian targets – an average of 41 rockets per day (compared with an average of nine rockets per day in all of 2008). In addition, 277 mortar shells were fired.

The rockets fired at Ashdod and Beersheba reflect a significant upgrade in Hamas’ range capabilities. This expanded capability relies on standard katyusha rockets smuggled into the Gaza Strip, during the recent six-month cease-fire.

So far, four civilians in Israel were killed during this operation.

David Bedein can be reached at dbedein@israelbehindthenews.com

Israel Scores Initial Victories In Gaza War

By

David Bedein

-

January 9, 2009

During Thursday’s Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations, the Israeli army targeted, identified and killed Islamic Jihad terrorists who in recent days launched rockets into Israel including, Nasser Halil Hassan Ouda, 21; Muhammad Faez Yadeb Hanedi, 24; Anwar Abed al-Hafiz Abu Salem, 23.

Israeli ground troops encountered and shot armed gunmen in several different incidents.

On Thursday morning, an Israeli officer, Maj. Roi Rosner, 27, from Holon, Israel, was killed when an anti-tank missile hit Israeli troops from the Kfir infantry brigade.

On Thursday afternoon, Sgt. Amit Robinson, 21, a tank crewman from kibbutz Magal, was killed Thursday by sniper fire in Northern Gaza.

The Israel Air Force (IAF) attacked approximately 25 targets, including: â€¨

Nine Weaponry storehouses, most of them hidden under the homes of Hamas terrorists;
Weapons smuggling tunnels;
Four rocket launching sites;
A vehicle carrying a rocket launcher;
Two Hamas outposts;
and five cadres of armed terrorists operatives, some of which fired at Israeli forces.