Senior “Yediot Aharonot” reporter, Ron Ben-Yishai’s article, EXPOSURE: Military Intelligence Estimate – The Chance of War in the Coming Year Greater Than In The Past was the feature article in the Friday, 10th July supplement and highlighted in the newspaper’s advertising campaign.

Ben-Yishai reports that Arafat is preparing to attack Israel via three forces:

  1. Local Fatah activists under the command of Preventive Security chiefs Rajoub and Dahlan, who directed a dry run mobilization last May.
  2. The 36,000 arms bearing “security forces” – some of whom have already planned and practiced attacks against settlements. The Palestinian Authority has special anti-terror forces trained by Austria and other European countries whose role is apparently to attack settlements. Arafat own guard, Force 17, may also take part.
  3. Hamas forces who would, as in the past, be given the “green light” from Arafat.

IMRA interviewed Ben-Yishai, in Hebrew, on July 10:

IMRA: In your article today you write that “The GSS and military intelligence are convinced that Arafat will prevent violence as long as he sees a chance to advance towards a Palestinian state within more or less the 1967 borders.” What does “more or less” mean? Beilin-Mazen with the large settlement blocs intact?

Ben-Yishai: “More or less” really isn’t defined. I don’t know. It is open to negotiations. He didn’t give me a map.

IMRA: So there is no sense if there will be an explosion if he doesn’t also get those areas.

Ben-Yishai: As long as he sees that he is advancing towards his goal it is OK. And when he is stopped it won’t be OK.

IMRA: But it isn’t clear what his goal is.

Ben-Yishai: It isn’t clear what he is willing to compromise on.

IMRA: So it can be that the demands of the Third Way or Ehud Barak are beyond what is acceptable.

Ben-Yishai: It isn’t known. It is negotiations. It is a bazaar.

IMRA: There aren’t estimates on this.

Ben-Yishai: No.

Dr. Aaron Lerner,
Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
P.O.BOX 982 Kfar Sava
Tel: (+972-9) 760-4719
Fax: (+972-9) 741-1645