After a series of delays and the worldwide wave of protests notwithstanding, it is nigh upon us.

The United States is going to attack Iraq in the second half of March.

While the message coming from the direction of the Kirya is calming, it would be premature to store away your gas mask kit. The talk about the negligible possibility that Iraq will try to attack Israel by means of long-range missiles could be misleading. The security establishment is troubled by a far more palpable danger. The danger of a wave of world terror.

Iraq sent in advance sleeper agents to various places around the world. Upon the eruption of the war these agents will operate against the enemy not on the front lines of the war but in its home front,inside the United States, Britain and other countries.

This kind of terrorism could use chemical or biological weapons. That is the reason for the panic that has gripped the West recently about possible terror attacks. Israel and Israeli and Jewish facilities abroad might be targeted by Iraq. And we mustn’t forget either that al-Qaida could show that it won’t stay silent at a time when the United States is busy attacking an Arab country.

Last week a series of situation assessments were held by the security establishment. The bottom line is that Israel has two weeks left to prepare for the war. The psychological warfare failed to cow Saddam. The scenario in which Saddam folds and seeks political asylum in an Arab state no longer looks plausible now. The Israeli security establishment is convinced that the 200,000 a.m.erican troops who have been transported to the Persian Gulf will not return home with their tails between their legs.

President Bush’s room to maneuver has also become more restricted. He cannot attack before the current stage of the show surrounding the UN weapons inspectors work is over. Conversely, the Iraqi winter is about to end and the American generals definitely do not want to send their troops in to broil in the desert in the middle of a blistering Iraqi summer. An attack in the second half of March is now inevitable.

In practice, the security establishment and other state systems, such as the health system, have completed their preparations for the war already. Aside from raising the level of alert in the IAF and completing the deployment of the Patriot missiles, top officials in the security establishment are troubled by another central task on their agenda-what instructions should they give the concerned public.

This is a very sensitive subject. On the one hand, explicit instructions to prepare sealed rooms could evoke the trauma from the 1991 Gulf War and raise the level of anxiety in Israel to a degree that paralyzes routine life. On the other, instructions to open the gas mask kits could be issued too late. The security establishment does not want the first time Israeli citizens see their gas masks to be the moment that Israel is under missile attack.

These complex issues seem simple when compared to the dilemma that the security establishment and the political echelon will face once the war begins: should routine life be paralyzed deliberately by means of closing schools, for example, or should a chance be taken and should the schools be kept open, at least until a missile falls here.

What ultimately will tip the scales principally is intelligence.

According to foreign sources, far away from the drama that has accompanied the war preparations, the United States and Israel have been monitoring by means of satellite pictures and other intelligence gathering means every change in western Iraq. The information that is received about the turn of events in that part of Iraq is what ultimately will determine in the moment of truth which instructions will be given to the public.

In the last few weeks that remain (really, this time) until the war breaks out we would do well were we not to become complacent. The media throughout the world is busy guessing what kinds of surprises the United States has prepared for Saddam. We also ought to assume that Saddam hasn’t been lazy these past few months. Even though his military capabilities appear to be limited, he may have an “ace”” up his sleeve that will surprise the world.

This appeared in Maariv on March 2, 2003

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