Israel Sees 30-Day War With Iran

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Israel has assessed that it must prepare for a month-long war with Iran and its proxies.

Israeli military and intelligence community have discussed a range of scenarios of war between Iran and the Jewish state. They said the discussions included how Iran and its proxies would attack Israel, likely choice of weapons, casualties and duration of fighting.

“The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts,” Israeli Home Front Minister Matan Vilnai said.

Vilnai, who leaves his post to become ambassador to China, said Israel assessed that the war would result in some 500 casualties. He said the government and military expected multiple missile and rocket strikes against major Israeli cities.

“It could be that there will be less fatalities, but it could be there will be more,” Vilnai said in an interview with the Israeli daily Maariv on Aug. 15. “That is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts.”

Israeli military and intelligence community concluded that Iran did not have the capability to sustain any long-range war against Israel. They said Teheran would try to preserve most of its military assets to defend against any U.S. military strike from the neighboring Gulf.

“The Iranians have neither the capability nor the interest in setting fire to the entire Middle East,” former Military Intelligence chief [Res.] Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin wrote in an analysis.

Over the last year, Israel has conducted several civil defense exercises meant to test capabilities in any multi-front war. The exercises included such scenarios as a missile attack on Tel Aviv, particularly the Defense Ministry and General Staff headquarters.

Analysts said Israel was not prepared for a major missile strike from Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. But Vilnai said the government and military achieved significant progress in measures to protect civilians as well as strategic facilities.

“I can say in the most authoritative manner that the home front is ready as never before in the country’s history,” Vilnai said.

Officials said the consultations over an Iranian war were based an Israeli or U.S. attack against Teheran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure. They said Israel could not rule out that Teheran along with such proxies as Hamas, Hizbullah and Islamic Jihad, would launch a preemptive strike.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were said to favor an attack on Iran over the next few months. In 2012, Israel and the United States held a series of high-level consultations on Iran’s nuclear program and the feasibility of an attack.

“The only question is if a clash is necessary,” Vilnai said. “War is something that is better to postpone and weigh carefully.”