The Israel Policy Forum. in cooperation with the Israeli Peace Initiative, released today a poll with the intention apparently of setting the tone for PM Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.
The poll features serious errors. Among them:
- It grossly misrepresents the Arab Peace Initiative, claiming that addressing the Palestinians alone would satisfy the requirements of the initiative when in fact the initiative requires also full withdrawal from the Golan Heights as well as withdrawal from part of the northern Galilee.
- It presents “components” of a deal that either have been rejected by the Palestinians (refugee issue) or have a poorly defined element to them (“Security arrangements to protect against Iran and terror” and “Israel will conduct security arrangements with the Americans” – also no direct and explicit reference to Old City of Jerusalem.
- Built into the responses to the question about PM Netanyahu are the assumptions made by the respondents regarding what kind of deal PM Netanyahu would accept. Thus no conclusions can be actually reached from the results without knowing what these assumptions are.
Research Report by New Wave-Nielsen Alliance Regarding Israelis’ views of the Regional Approach and a Peace Agreement based on the Arab Peace Initiative
Commissioned by the Israeli Peace Initiative Group (“Yisrael Yozemet”)
February 20, 2014
The current survey was conducted on February 6, 2014, a representative sample of 500, from a representative panel of some 100,000 Israelis connected to the internet. We note that this sample, based on data from the ONLINE PANEL, is not fully representative of Arabic- and Russian-speakers who do not know Hebrew or of the ultra-Orthodox population.
- In your opinion are the Palestinians interested in reaching an end to the conflict?”
19% are sure/think that yes
77% are sure that they are not/think that they are not
- Are the Israelis interested in reaching an end to the conflict
73% sure that they are/think that they are
20% are sure that they are not/think that they are not
- Without intervention by the Arab states and the Arab League the Palestinians will never reach an agreement with the Israelis on their own.
55% agree/agree very much
22% moderately agree
11% do not agree
[IMRA: this misrepresents the Arab Peace Initiative that requires Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights and part of the northern Galilee as well as a Palestinian state]
- Support Arab Peace Initiative [but without any description of its components. (The only details included in the question stated that the two sides would have to make concessions in order to reach an end to the conflict and establishment of diplomatic relations with the Arab states and Islam.)
63% sure/ think so
37% sure that they are not/think that they would not be supportive
- Removal of the threat of economic boycott
- No right of return for refugees, with the exception of a symbolic number, with Israel’s agreement
- Security arrangements to protect against Iran and terror
- 300 million consumers and a billion residents will improve the situation of Israeli citizens
- Palestine will be demilitarized and Israel will conduct security arrangements with the Americans
- The US, the super powers and the Arab states will guarantee long- term support for the agreement
- Israel’s borders will include settlements, with only minor territorial exchanges
- Arab neighborhoods in East Jerusalem will be part of the Arab capital and Arab residents of East Jerusalem will be considered Palestinians
- The Holy Sites will not be under any specific sovereignty and will be managed separately by each religion
- Assuming that these components will be part of a package deal to end the conflict, to what extent would you be willing to support this agreement
76% sure that/think that they would support this idea
- If Benjamin Netanyahu were to bring an agreement putting an end to the conflict to the public, to what extent would you support him.
28% definitely would
46% think they would
- If, as a result of opposition on the part of members of the Likud and HaBayit Hayehudi parties, Benjamin Netanyahu were forced to break up the Likud and establish a new party, what are the chances that they would support this new party?
15% certain they would
41% think they would