When we realized that it was a mistake to rely on American supplies of
one-ton bunker busters, we dug into our pockets to begin serial production
of a superior Israeli model.

That was only the beginning.

The Blinken-Austin letter threatening Israel with an arms embargo as the
Jewish State is in the middle of an intensive war can be expected to have a
lasting impact on Israeli arms planning.

We are already scrambling to produce a large portfolio of components and
ammunition, which until recently were received from Uncle Sam.

The scar left by the Blinken-Austin letter is so deep that no matter how the
White House behaves after the elections, or who gets sworn in next January,
Israeli defense procurement decisions will take into account the possibility
of a future arms embargo.

The embargo threat also serves to put the nail in the coffin for any future
“diplomatic” scheme that hinges on “ironclad guarantees” from America.

To be clear: it would have been better for us to reach these conclusions
without it being the product of the Biden Administration’s “two-by-four
treatment.”

But at least we can have the satisfaction of knowing that, in the long run,
the embargo threat will serve to dramatically improve Israeli defense
procurement decisions while avoiding nonsensical diplomatic arrangements
that hinge on “ironclad” American guarantees.
________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

If the Jewish state doesn’t take a series of measures to improve humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip within the next 30 days, it could risk “implications” for U.S. policy, potentially including an arms embargo, according to a letter from the U.S. defense and state secretaries leaked to Axios.

The letter, which Axios published on Tuesday, purports to come from Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, and Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary. It is addressed to Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, and Ron Dermer, the Israeli strategic affairs minister.

“Starting now and within 30 days,” Jerusalem should implement 15 policy changes to avoid a possible arms embargo, the letter states. “Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for U.S. policy under NSM-20 and relevant U.S. law.”

Under NSM-18, issued on Feb. 23, 2023, one of the U.S. foreign policy and national security objectives is to “prevent arms transfers that risk facilitating or otherwise contributing to violations of human rights or international humanitarian law.”

NSM-20, a national security memorandum that U.S. President Joe Biden issued on Feb. 8 about “safeguards and accountability with respect to transferred defense articles and defense services,” requires the secretary of state “to obtain certain credible and reliable written assurances from foreign governments receiving defense articles.”

It also directs the defense and state secretaries to “provide periodic congressional reports to enable meaningful oversight” and ensure that all defensive weapon transfers ” are conducted in a manner consistent with all applicable international and domestic law and policy, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law.”

Among other measures, the letter calls on the Jewish Israel to allow at least 350 aid trucks to pass through existing border crossings daily and to open a fifth crossing.

Israel is also instructed to announce “adequate humanitarian pauses across Gaza” for at least four months, rescind evacuation orders, remove a ban on the entry of “container and closed trucks,” authorize certain items with dual military use to enter and confirm that there will be no “policy of forced evacuation of civilians from northern to southern Gaza.”

The missive also reportedly expresses concerns about proposed Knesset legislation that would shut down activities in the Jewish state of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, declaring the U.N. body a terror group and stripping its staff of diplomatic privileges.

“While we share your concerns about the serious allegations of certain UNRWA employees participating in the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks and of Hamas misusing UNRWA facilities, enactment of such restrictions would devastate the Gaza humanitarian response at this critical moment,” per the letter. “We ask that you take all possible steps, whether with lawmakers or using the authorities of the Prime Minister’s Office, to ensure that this does not come to pass.”

Citing reports of abuses against terrorists captured during Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre and the Gaza ground campaign, the letter urges Israel to immediately allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit all “individuals detained in connection with this conflict.”

“It is vitally important that our governments establish a new channel through which we can raise and discuss civilian harm incidents,” the letter concludes. “Our engagements to date have not produced the necessary outcomes. We ask that the initial virtual meeting of this channel be held by the end of October.”

In May, the U.S. State Department issued a report to Congress about U.S. arms transfers to Israel that was deeply critical of the Jewish state but stopped short of concluding that it was violating international law.

“Given Israel’s significant reliance on U.S.-made defense articles, it is reasonable to assess that defense articles covered under NSM-20 have been used by Israeli security forces since Oct. 7 in instances inconsistent with its international humanitarian law obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm,” the report stated.

The report noted that individual violations of international law do not mean that a country is not committed to following the law. It added that Israel has several “active criminal investigations pending, and there are hundreds of cases under administrative review” about its own conduct.

In March, Jerusalem provided a written letter to Washington declaring that it abides by international law when using weapons transferred from the United States, which was another requirement of Biden’s memorandum.

The Israel Defense Forces has been fighting to defeat Hamas in Gaza since the terror group led a mass invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, murdering 1,200 people, primarily Jewish civilians, wounding thousands more and kidnapping 251 people to Gaza, where 101 remain.

Jerusalem has rejected any accusation that the IDF does not comply with international law or is interfering with humanitarian aid efforts and has accused Hamas terrorists of stealing the majority of the aid. At times, the White House and the State Department have admitted that the terror group is known to seize aid.

A former chief of Israeli military intelligence has told the BBC that he expects Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear sites in one of its strikes against Iran.

“Not only do I expect this, but I also expect the international community to support us”, said Yossi Kuperwasser.

Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas, on Sunday warned of the danger inherent in Israel’s decision to take over the UNRWA headquarters in “occupied East Jerusalem”, and turning the place into a “settlement enclave”.

In a statement, Abu Rudeineh said that Israel’s decision constitutes a violation of international law and defiance of the UN resolutions.

He also said that the Israeli decision was wrong and was made as part of the ongoing attempts to “eliminate the refugee problem”.

Abbas’ spokesman stressed that the Palestinian Arabs will never agree under any circumstances to eliminate the refugee problem, since UNRWA was established in accordance with UN Resolution 302 on December 18, 1949, and the refugee problem is at the heart of the Palestinian problem, and it constitutes a red line for all arrangement”.

“There will be no security and stability in the entire region unless the settlement of the refugee problem is a just and comprehensive solution based on the decisions of international legitimacy, first of all the implementation of UN Resolution No. 194”, which according to the Palestinian Arab interpretation, orders the return of the refugees and their descendants to the territory of the State of Israel.

“If it weren’t for the American support which is politically, militarily and economically biased in favor of the occupation, the leaders of the occupation would not have dared to defy international legitimacy and international law,” Abu Rudeineh claimed.

He called on the international community to increase aid to UNRWA so that it can provide services to the “Palestinian refugees” wherever they are located.

His statement follows the Israel Land Authority’s announcement late last week that it plans to turn the UNRWA field office in Jerusalem’ into a complex with 1,440 housing units.

UNRWA, which has long been criticized for cooperating with Hamas, has come under increased scrutiny as its workers have been found to have been directly involved in Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel.

Israel said in January of this year that UNRWA staff participated in the October 7 Hamas attacks. It then presented a dossier showing that the UNRWA workers who participated in the Hamas massacre kidnapped a woman, handed out ammunition and actively took part in the massacre at Kibbutz Be’eri, where 97 people were murdered.

Following the Israeli revelations, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the creation of a review group, headed by former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, to look into the Israeli allegations.

The group released its report in April. The report found neutrality-related issues” in UNRWA but also claimed that Israel had yet to provide evidence for allegations that a significant number of its staff were members of terrorist organizations.

Recently, however, the UN acknowledged for the first time that employees of UNRWA may have been involved in Hamas’ October 7 massacre in Israel.

Settlement & Annexation Report: October 4, 2024

U.S. Imposes Sanctions on “Hilltop Youth” Settler Terror Group & Two Individuals

On October 1st the United States announced sanctions on the “Hilltop Youth” settler groups along with two individuals – Eitan Yarden and Avichai Suissa.

The violent, extremist, fundamentalist Hilltop Youth settler group  – dubbed the “Jewish ISIS” – operates out of the Yitzhar settlement in the northern region of the West Bank, near Nablus, and there has been no shortage of documentation over the years of their terrorism of Palestinian communities in the region and their involvement in establishing new outposts. The State Department asserted:

“[the Hilltop Youth are] a violent extremist group that has rampaged through Palestinian communities in the West Bank.  It has carried out killings, mass arson, and other so-called “price tag” attacks to exact revenge and intimidate Palestinian civilians.  Hilltop Youth has repeatedly clashed with the Israeli military when it tries to counter Hilltop Youth’s destructive activities.”

The “Hilltop Youth” are not a pariah group at odds with the Israeli state. Last year , +972 Magazine revealed that the IDF had actually created a specific unit for members of the Hilltop Youth and outpost groups to serve in, a unit which has been involved in violent attacks on Palestinians across the Jordan Valley. Further, the IDF recruits members of the Hilltop Youth also recruited to serve in the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda battalion, which has been accused of gross violations of human rights but which the U.S. has decided not enforce its own law against supplying arms to such problematic groups even after a lengthy investigation.

In 2023, Haaretz revealed that the Jewish National Fund has given $1million to organizations which provide support and services to the “Hilltop Youth,” including a project meant to offer professional training to Hilltop Youth (who are mostly highschool dropouts) living in illegal West Bank outposts.

Prominent U.S. Senators Call for Biden Admin to Sanction Amana Settler Group

In a letter to U.S.Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellin dated September 27th, three prominent Democratic Senators called for more sanctions on extremist settlers, specifically calling for the Amana organization to be sanctioned. Unlike the Hilltop Youth (which  the U.S. sanctioned this week), the Amana organization is deeply intertwined with the entire settlement enterprise in both legal and illegal (under Israeli law) ways. Amana is influential in the realm of settler political leadership, very well financed, owns and develops a large portfolio of land in the West Bank for settlements and outposts. Senators wrote:

“Amana has a long and well-documented history of supporting extremist settlers who expropriate Palestinian land and threaten Palestinian landholders, farmers, and shepherds. Amana has played a central role in forming and sustaining hill-top outposts illegal under Israeli law, often by granting loans to bankroll their start. These outposts have since become bases of operation for settler violence against Palestinians, with those resident settlers burning olive groves and homes; stealing livestock; diverting water supplies; blocking roads in and out of villages; and intimidating and threatening villagers from accessing or returning to their land. These outposts contribute to the attacks on and sometimes even killing of Palestinians on their own land or while traveling through the West Bank…We therefore urge you to continue to designate for sanctions those individuals and entities who are undermining peace and stability in the West Bank, to include the Amana organization.”

A U.S. government source told The Times of Israel that Amana has already been considered in past rounds of sanctions. Leaders of Amana have been working hard to dissuade the U.S. from imposing sanctions on the organization, fearing the severe and far-reaching implications U.S. sanctions would have. The Canadian government sanctioned Amana in June, but it is widely understood U.S. sanctions are a standard bearer for the sanctions regimes of EU countries and much more consequential in world banking systems.

Peace Now describes Amana:

“This organization is one of the strongest settler organizations financially, politically, and in terms of its influence on the establishment of settlements and outposts in the Occupied Territories. With assets valued at approximately NIS 600 million, and an annual budget of tens of millions of NIS, Amana is considered the ‘mother and father’ of the illegal outposts, and in recent years also of the illegal agricultural farms that are a major factor in settler violence against Palestinians. Peace Now revealed Amana’s central role in taking over land and in the construction of illegal outposts in our 2017 report ‘Unraveling the Mechanism behind Illegal Outposts’…Amana is also involved in the establishment of farms that have been subject to international sanctions because of violence against Palestinians. For example, Amana was a key partner in the establishment of Meitarim Farm (Yinon Levy’s farm), one of the first to be imposed international sanctions after four communities of hundreds of Palestinians were expelled following violence by settlers who came from the direction of the farm.”

Settlers Push Settlement of South Lebanon, Advertising Houses & Calling for Conquest

The movement to establish Israeli settlements in south Lebanon continues to gain steam in the wake of Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon and orders to evacuate Lebanese towns in the area.

Middle East Eye reports that the new Israeli settler group – Uri Tzafon – pushing for the Israeli government to settle southern Lebanon has published flyers advertising homes for sale across the Israeli border, in sovereign Lebanese territory. The advertisement reads:

“After the elimination of the Hezbollah leadership…do you also dream of a big house, a view of snowy mountains and a warm community in the land of our ancestors?”

The group has about 3,000 members communicating in a WhatsApp group, offering suggestions to rename Lebanese towns once they are conquered and emptied. Members of the group also sent balloons into Lebanon with threatening messages

A senior rabbi published an op-ed in The Jerusalem Post calling for Israel to conquer southern Lebanon, claiming that it is Israel’s God-given land and saying Lebanese should be expelled from the area.

In a deep dive into Uri Tzafon and the push to settler southern Lebanon, Jewish Currents columnist Maya Rosen writes:

“It is tempting to dismiss Uri Tzafon as fringe. After all, even Israel’s far-right, ultra-nationalist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir—proponents of war with Hezbollah as well as the military occupation of southern Lebanon—have not yet mentioned civilian settlements. And every policy expert I spoke with agreed that the chance that Israel would actually establish settlements in southern Lebanon is very low. Natasha Roth-Rowland, a scholar of the Israeli far right, explained that there simply isn’t the political will to advance settlements in Lebanon, especially when the Israeli military apparatus is so overstretched. And yet, experts warned me again and again that the movement to settle Lebanon ought not to be discounted lightly. “It’s easy to dismiss, because it’s so far removed from reality,” Makdisi told me. “But I don’t see this as fringe. It’s been in the political imagination forever, and it’s not going to go away.” Roth-Rowland agreed, noting that “there is a fairly well-established track record of even the most fringe parts of the Israeli settler movement becoming not so fringe over a period of decades or even years,” and pointing to the ways that the movement has succeeded in establishing and growing settlements, including, for example, the particularly violent one in the heart of the Palestinian city of Hebron. Many of the unauthorized outposts this movement has created have even been retroactively legalized, pointing to how, in Roth-Rowland’s words, “settlers have made political gains over the last several decades by outflanking the government from the right and forcing concessions.” In this context, experts noted that the mainstreaming of a group like Uri Tzafon could be more feasible than it first appears. “That’s how the settlement movement started,” said Israeli settlement historian Akiva Eldar. “They planted seeds, which grew into trees, which grew into a jungle.”

2024 Olive Harvest Season Set to Begin Amidst Concerns Israel, Settlers Will Prevent Access

The Israeli government is poised to block the beginning of the Palestinian olive harvest season from beginning. OCHA reports that the Palestinian Ministry of Agriculture announced that the annual olive harvest will begin on October 10th, but Israeli authorities – which police Palestinians’ access to their agricultural lands in Area C and in the Seam Zone – have set a later  dates for olive harvest, with dates between October 3 and 28 for different governorates across the West Bank. OCHA further reports:

“Initial reports suggest that, unlike 2023, Israeli authorities intend to allow farmers to gain access to their lands behind the Barrier, while access to lands near Israeli settlements remains uncertain.”

The human rights group HaMoked has led legal efforts to compel the Israeli army to permit Palestinians to access their privately owned land in the Seam Zone, the land between the 1967 Green Line and the Israeli-built Separation Barrier), and is currently engaged in litigation with the state on this matter. On October 1st, the State submitted its second response to HaMoked’s petition to provide access to agricultural lands, in which the State said that it intends to open the Seam Zone gates at the end of October or beginning of November, “subject to a situational security assessment.” These dates are well past the start of the olive harvest.

HaMoked further reports:

“the State also made clear that permits will be granted on an individual basis, again subject to security assessments, in order to ‘prevent acts of terrorism.’ In previous years, over 10,000 Palestinians (extended families as well as hired workers) took part in harvesting olives on lands beyond the Separation Barrier. We know from years of experience that it takes weeks, at best, for Palestinians to navigate the Civil Administration’s very cumbersome permit application procedure. In short, the State’s response only strengthens our concern that they intend to allow only a very minimal olive harvest beyond the Barrier.

It is disappointing but not surprising that the State remains unwilling to allow Palestinian farmers to access their own lands on de facto annexed territory. There are many pressing issues facing Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories at this time. All the same, we want to ensure that in this chaotic time, the economic and food security, livelihoods, and centuries-old traditions of Palestinian farmers are not neglected.”

On September 25, the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights called on Israeli authorities to ensure the safety of Palestinian farmers and access to their lands, emphasizing the need to prevent a recurrence of last year’s restrictions and violence that devastated livelihoods.

OCHA writes:

“The annual olive harvest season is a key economic, social and cultural event for Palestinians. Last year’s harvest was particularly challenging due to significant movement restrictions and violence by Israeli forces and Israeli settlers that followed the 7 October attack on Israel. More than 96,000 dunums of olive-cultivated lands across the West Bank remained unharvested due to Israeli restrictions on Palestinian access. Consequently, according to the Food Security Sector, Palestinian farmers suffered an estimated total loss of more than 1,200 metric tons of olive oil in the 2023 season, resulting in a direct financial setback of US$10 million. The impact was particularly harsh in the northern governorates of Tulkarm, Qalqiliya and Nablus.

Access restrictions and widespread settler violence pose high risks and challenges for farmers during the olive harvest season, potentially undermining their livelihoods. The Protection Cluster, led by the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR), in coordination with OCHA, the Food Security Sector and humanitarian partners are preparing to support Palestinian farmers by providing coordinated protective presence in identified hotspots, documenting incidents of violence, and advocating for people’s rights during the season. Moreover, as part of its emergency response mechanism and 48-hour rapid response, the occupied Palestinian territory Humanitarian Fund (oPt HF) has allocated US$750,000 to support two local partners in preparation for the upcoming olive harvest season. These partners are implementing projects aimed at strengthening the resilience of farmers in rural communities. The specific objectives of these projects include the provision of essential tools and equipment, cleaning olive groves to reduce fire risks and prevent losses and improving olive oil storage facilities to ensure higher food quality.”