Eye on Syria: Timely Report on Developments

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February 8, 2000

Our Top Stories

Syria Expected to Become Missile Exporter
Assad’s New Man is His Son-in-law
Syria Compares Israel to Nazis; Denies Holocaust

Syria Expected to Become Missile Exporter

Syria is building its arsenal with North Korean help and is expected to eventually be an exporter of missiles, the CIA said.

In a report, the CIA said Syria and Iraq may soon emerge as suppliers of missile-related technology. The CIA said that at first the two countries will offer technology and equipment related to shorter-range ballistic missiles.

“But as their domestic infrastructures and expertise develop, they will be able to offer a broader range of technologies that could include longer-range missiles and related technology,” the report said.

The report said that in addition to North Korea, China and Russia are helping their clients develop missile arsenals. The report said a main client is Iran, Syria’s chief ally.

“Despite international efforts to curtail the flow of critical technologies and equipment, Teheran continues to seek fissile material and echnology for weapons development and has set up an elaborate system of military and civilian organizations to support its effort.”

Syria Remains on Ban of U.S. Computer Exports

Syria and other nations on the State Department list of terrorist sponsors will continue to be banned from high-performance U.S. computers used in military programs.

In a review that eases restrictions, the Clinton administration said it will continue to ban advanced computer exports to Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Cuba, Sudan, and Syria. Officials said the United States will maintain a virtual embargo on computer exports.

The changes are part of an easing of U.S. export controls that will make it easier to export advanced computers to countries in Latin America, Asia, much of Africa and the former Soviet bloc. The changes were announced on Feb. 1 as part of a six-month review.

Clinton plans to raise the licensing threshold for Tier 2 and Tier 3 countries. Tier 2 countries include Latin America, South Korea, the Association of South East Asian Nations countries, Slovenia and most of Africa. Tier 3 countries include India, Pakistan, all Middle East and North African countries, the former Soviet Union, China, Vietnam and Central Europe.

Clinton said that under proposed legislation Tier 3 nations will require congressional review periods of only one month for future computer exports. Currently, the review period is up to six months.

” I also will work with Congress to explore longer-term solutions to how we control exports of items like computers and microprocessors when they become widely available commodities,” he said.

This is the fourth Clinton’s fourth revision of U.S. export control parameters since 1993 and are designed to increase computer and technology exports. The new regulations will seek to control exports from 12,500 MTOPS for most countries.

For Middle East and former Soviet republics, exports are permitted without an individual license up to 6,500 MTOPS, and require individual licenses for military end-uses and end-users above that figure. Exports without an individual license are permitted for civil end-users between 6,500 MTOPS and 12,300 MTOPS, with exporter record keeping and reporting as directed. Individual licenses are required for all end-users above 12,300 MTOPS.

Saudis to Launch Effort to Persuade Syria on Peace

Saudi Arabia plans to launch an effort to persuade Syria to embark on the final mile to achieve a peace treaty with Israel.

Arab diplomatic sources said the kingdom has acquiesced to appeals from U.S. and European Union leaders and will discuss with Damascus Arab and Gulf aid to Syria as part of any peace treaty with Israel. The sources said Riyad has resisted making specific pledges but will likely commit to helping develop Syria’s economy.

The Saudi effort will formally begin in Riyad on Feb. 15 when Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal meets Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara. Saudi officials acknowledge that such a meeting has been scheduled and will concern the negotiations between Syria and Israel.

The meeting will be held within the framework of a Syrian- Saudi committee in which both foreign ministers will attend. Officials said the Saudis agreed to discuss their role in any Syrian peace treaty with Israel as long as the United States presses the Jewish state to acede to Syrian demands for a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, captured in the 1967 war.

Israeli-Syrian negotiations have been suspended amid a demand by Damascus for an Israeli commitment for a withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 lines. Israel first wants the negotiations to focus on security arrangements and normalization.

Last month, a delegation of American Jewish leaders visited Riyad and held talks with Saudi officials on the prospect of aiding Syria.

Arab diplomatic sources expect Syria to soon return to the negotiating table as part of a U.S. compromise. They said both U.S. and EU leaders have been urging Assad to seize the opportunity over the next few months to conclude a peace agreement.

Last week, British House of Lord member Michael Levy met in Damascus with A-Shaara and delivered a message for Assad from British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Officials said Levy’s visit was meant to provide a British role in helping revive Israeli-Syrian peace talks.

A-Shaara also discussed the stalled peace talks Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Later, A-Shaara discussed the issue with the new Japanese ambassador in Damascus.

Syria Pledges Better Times After Peace

Syria might be refusing to negotiate peace with Israel. But Syrian officials are already touting the benefits of any U.S.-arranged peace treaty.

Syrian officials are now telling their countrymen in the state media that peace with Israel will result in an expanded economy that will ease social strain. They are saying that peace will lead to more jobs and prosperity.

Currently, Syria admits to an unemployment rate of eight percent. Labor Minister Ali Khalil said this was an increase from the six percent unemployment in 1994. In previous years, he said, unemployment was as high as 8.4 percent.

Khalil said the current unemployment rate is too high for Syria. “But it will be eventually decreased with the increase in stability in the region,” he said on Feb. 2.

The minister blamed Israel for Syria’s economic woes. He said Israel has forced Syria to spend badly-needed funds on weapons.

But Khalil said after a peace treaty Syria would focus on developing infrastructure and civilian projects. He said this will increase jobs and maintain the currently low prices.

“Inflation did not eat the wages,” he said.

Khalil listed other measures Syria is considering in the wake of a peace treaty. This includes introducing new requirements for state companies to ensure they operate on a profit basis, lifting export restrictions and incentives for investment.

But Syrian officials are not promising immediate changes. They said the country’s huge public sector will not be cut because they don’t want to increase unemployment. He said about 200,000 Syrians join the labor force every year.

Syria reportedly has 500,000 foreign workers, mostly from Sri Lanka, Egypt and Somalia. About 1 million Syrians work in the Gulf and Arab diplomatic sources said another 1 million are employed in Lebanon. Syrian officials said the number in Lebanon is 225,000.

The public sector employs 25 percent of the labor force in Syria, officials said. They said this does not include Syria’s huge military.

Syria will probably not end its subsidies either, officials said. Khalil said about $2 billion of the $5.1 billion state budget is designated for subsidies of staples and basic services such as free education and medical care as well as cheap transportation.

Hundreds Have Disappeared in Latest Syrian Arrests

Opposition sources and human rights groups said hundreds of people have disappeared in the latest crackdown by Damascus against critics of Syrian peace talks with Israel.

The London-based Amnesty International has expressed concern for the safety of hundreds of political opponents arrested since Dec. 12. The group said torture and ill-treatment are systematically used against political detainees in Syria.

“The military intelligence and other branches of the Syrian security forces have made the arrests in Homs, Aleppo, Damascus and other parts of the country,” Amnesty said. “Those arrested come from political or religious groups which oppose the peace process with Israel and include large numbers of members of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brothers or Hizb al-Tahrir as well as supporters of leftist groups. They are also said to include former political detainees and people who are unaligned but who oppose the peace process.”

The group said information about the arrests is extremely difficult to obtain. Only recently have the names of a few of those arrested been made public, Amnesty said.

Human rights groups said hundreds of people are in prison in Syria for political reasons, some for many years without charge or trial. Others have been brought to trial before the Supreme State Security Court where trials fall far short of fair trial standards.

The Syrian Human Rights Committee said thousands of political detainees have vanished as authorities simply deny their existence. The committee said United Nations efforts to find them have failed.

Assad’s New Man is His Son-in-law

President Hafez Assad has found himself a new strongman meant to ensure that the aging leader’s son becomes successor.

He is Assaf Chawkat, the president’s son-in-law and head of military intelligence and the first of a new generation of Syrians meant to ensure stability in Damascus. Intelligence sources as well as some Arab diplomats said Chawkat has been groomed to watch the back of Bashar Assad as he wages the struggle to succeed his 69-year-old father.

The sources said Chawkat, 36, so far serves two purposes. First, he ensures that the junior Assad will not have any rivals within the family. Some members of the family, particularly younger brother Maher, were said to have expressed skepticism regarding Bashar’s chances to succeed his father.

“He is both a political and physical force and he is loyal to Bashar Assad,” a senior intelligence source said.

The second purpose is to prove to Syria’s Alawite elite and the Baath Party that Bashar can maintain stability under his leadership. The sources said Chawkat will be the first of several military strongmen with whom the junior Assad will form alliances. They said the 34-year-old optometrist will eventually surround himself with a coterie of hatchet man who will ensure loyalty in all military and security services.

Later this year, the president is expected to submit Bashar as a candidate for a leadership position.

Intelligence sources said the emergence of Chawkat has dampened criticism of Bashar within the Assad family. In November, Chawkat was sent to a French hospital for a bullet wound that sources said was sustained during a fight with Maher.

The sources, however, said the dispute did not diminish Chawkat’s authority. If anything, they said, the elderly Assad cracked down on dissidents within the family who opposed Chawkat or Bashar.

“Chawkat is very unimpressive, to say the least,” a U.S. intelligence source who closely follows Syria said. “But right now, he is all Assad has.”

A key role of Chawkat, the sources said, is to ensure that Bashar will be allowed to continue the grooming process. The sources said the elderly Assad is slowly but steadily preparing Bashar’s skills in both diplomacy and military.

But the process has been slow. The sources said Bashar did poorly in his meetings in November in Paris with French President Jacques Chirac and the president does not want this repeated in any visit expected in Teheran.

“Bashar is coming to Teheran as a student not as an equal,” the intelligence source. “So, for Assad, there’s no hurry. The president has other ways to inform Iran about the peace process.”

Syria, Lebanon Rejoice Over Hizbullah Attack on Israel

Syria and Lebanon have expressed satisfaction with the Jan. 31 Hizbullah attack on Israeli troops in which three soldiers were killed and raised the prospect of massive retaliation.

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud told the Beirut-based daily A-Safir on Feb. 1 that the attack was worthy of praise and was necessary to expel Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. Lahoud said Hizbullah was shedding blood to ensure the liberation of Lebanese territory.

“There is no alternative to the liberation of Lebanon even though these activities are an exception to the political game,” Lahoud said.

Other Lebanese ministers were quoted as also expressing praise for Hizbullah while raising the prospect of Israeli retaliation.

State-run Damascus radio did not directly praise the attack. But it quoted Lebanese ministers as doing so. The Syrian Al Baath daily blamed Israel for the attack and called for a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the territories captured by Israel in the 1967 war.

The newspaper said Israel is leading to repeated deteriorations in the area and said the Jewish state can not rely on force. Tishrin echoed the assertions

Syria Asks Russia for Multilateral Update

Syria has asked Russia for a briefing on the multilateral talks taking place in Moscow and boycotted by Damascus.

The London-based Al Hayat daily on Feb. 1 quoted Russian diplomats as saying that the regime of President Hafez Assad has requested that a Russian envoy be sent to Damascus to brief the Syrians on the multilateral talks. The newspaper said this marks the first break in Syria’s refusal to participate in any regional cooperation talks that involve Israel.

Russia has not objected to the Syrian request.

Representatives of 40 countries are in Moscow and on Feb 1, a steering committee met to set dates for five working groups to deal with regional economic development, environment, Palestinian refugees, water and security. The arms control committee is not expected to convene.

Syria and Lebanon are boycotting the conference. The talks are being attended by the Palestinian Authority, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia — representing the Gulf states — and Tunisia representing North Africa, Canada, Japan, Norway and Switzerland.

Four working committees were established for the continuation of talks in the coming months.Water issues will be discussed in Oman, the environment in Tunisia, refugees in Canada and economic issues in Morocco.

Syria Compares Israel to Nazis; Denies Holocaust

Syria launched a bitter media attack against Israel comparing the Jewish state to Nazi Germany.

The Syrian government daily Tishrin said on Jan. 31 Israel has committed crimes against the Arabs that were no less grave than that of the killing of six million Jews by the Nazis during World War II. Tishrin, however, questioned whether the Holocaust actually took place and said Israel has tried to stop those who doubted the Nazi extermination.

“Zionism is erasing from human memory 50 million Nazi victims and concentrating on the suffering of Jews, although historical facts prove that Zionist leaders then collaborated with the Nazis for the Jewish problem to get worse,” Tishreen editor Mohamed Kheir Wadi said. “Zionism hides these dark pages of its history, blackens them completely, and invents stories about the Holocaust and exaggerates it to astronomical levels.”

“Israel, which is presenting itself as heir to the victims of the Holocaust, committed and keeps on committing against the Arabs crimes that are uglier that the ones committed by the old Nazis,” the newspaper continued. “The Nazis, for example, did not drive out a whole nation from their homeland and did not bury people alive, which is what the Zionists did.”

The attack by the Syrian newspaper was the harshest against Israel since the two countries resumed peace negotiations in December. Over the past few weeks, however, Syrian media attacks have grown harsher as the suspension of the negotiations continued.

“Why does Israel insist on bringing up this alleged Holocaust policy?” the newspaper said. “I believe Israel and the Zionist organizations have two aims. The first is to receive more money from Germany and other Western establishments on the pretext of compensation for the Holocaust. The second aim is to invest the myth of the Holocaust and accuse anyone opposed to her Jewish lies about the Holocaust in the face of credible voices questioning it, including that of the controversial British historian David Irving.”

Holocaust denial, however, has been a familiar theme in the Syrian media. It is also repeated in the Arab and Iranian press.

Israel quickly responded to the report. Social and Diaspora Affairs Minister Michael Melchior expressed his revulsion over the article.

“It is not possible to show restraint over these unbridled statements which deny the Holocaust and compare Israel to the Nazis,” he said. “The Syrians know no bounds in anti-Israel incitement, both morally and diplomatically. This makes continued dialogue with them more difficult.”

Melchior called on Syria’s leaders to disavow the article in the government newspaper “and to change their style, which only makes peace and normalization between Israel and Syria more difficult.”

Likud parliamentarian has called for Israel to end peace talks with Syria.

Earlier, the weekly of the Syrian Arab Writers Association said Damascus will obtain the Golan Heights by force and must reject U.S. or Western aid, which will be meant to prevent Syria from restoring its military. Ali Orsan, the chairman, wrote in the association’s weekly, Al-Usbu Al Adabi that Syria would face a disaster if it recognizes the Jewish state.

The writer asked whether the agreement with Israel would prevent Syria from joining the next war against the Jewish state.

Syria, Sudan Sign Counterterrorism Accords

Syria and Sudan have signed several cooperation accords.

The two nations signed agreements to cooperate in the areas of counterterrorism, criminal investigations and drug-trafficking. Syria and Sudan are on the list of U.S. State Department sponsors of terrorism.

The memorandums were signed by Syrian Interior Minister Muhammad Harba and his Sudanese counterpart, Abdul Rahim Muhammad Hussein. In the accords, the two countries distinguish between terrorism and the struggle for national liberation.

Officials said the cooperation and exchange of experts will be conducted with Arab agreements on counterterrorism. The accords also called for coordination on bilateral and regional issues, particularly during international and security regional conferences.

For Sudan, the agreement was another achievement in its efforts to break Khartoum’s international isolation. Sudan has launched a campaign to increase its diplomatic and economic relations since the ousting of parliamentary leader Hassan Turabi, the leading of the Islamic fundamentalist movement.

Sudanese President Omar Bashir is also trying to organize a reconciliation conference with his opposition. The effort is being supported by neighboring Egypt and Libya.

What Did Barak Know

By

David Bedein

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February 1, 2000

On January 27, 2000, The Israel State Comptroller, the highest arbiter of the Israeli legal system, asserted that the campaign to elect Ehud Barak as the prime minister of Israel had established no less than twenty three fictitious non- profit organizations that had channeled illegal contributions to Barak’s campaign coffers.

These organizations, with innocuous names such as “Hope for Israel”, “The movement for better taxi service”, “Citizens from right and left”, “Doctors for immigrant absorption”, were established in 1998 and 1999 as bonafide health, education and welfare organizations, and duly registered as such in the Israeli government registrar of non-profit organizations.

However, the Israeli State Comptroller documented was that these groups were transformed into clandestine conduits for Barak’s election campaign in the Spring of 1999. These organizations never bothered to maintain appropriate book-keeping procedures under the bylaws of the Israeli government registrar of non-profit organizations, and they were all stricken from the record.

Some of these organizations maintained organizational ties to American Jewish organizations such as the Israel Policy Forum, a respected lobbying organization in Washington, which had been using the services of Attorney Yitzhak Hertzog as a liaison to the Barak camp in Jerusalem. Hertzog, the son of the late Israeli president Haim Hertzog, is now the prestigious cabinet secretary of the Barak government has been identified by the state comptroller as the attorney of record who oversaw the registration of this plethora of non-profit organizations on behalf of Barak’s election. Only fifteen minutes after the official publication of the state comptroller report, the Israeli attorney general Dr. Elyakim Rubenstein ordered a police investigation to review the Barak campaign allegations.

Essentially, that inquiry will address the question of Barak’s accountability which has shades of the challenge to Nixon in the 1973-74 Watergate committee: What did he know, when did he know it and was he directly involved?

Barak did not get off to a good start. His first reaction to the Israel State Comptroller report, issued on January 30, was that he was never directly engaged in fund-raising activities. Barak had apparently forgotten about his March 25th, 1999 personal appearance at a $10,000 a plate dinner given on his behalf in Los Angeles, hosted by California industrialist Haim Saban and reported on the wire of the Jewish Telegraphic Agency on March 28th. Reached by Raanana journalist Aaron Lerner at his home, Tugend affirmed that he had covered the event where Barak had personally solicited funds from wealthy American supporters.

American citizens who make non-profit contributions that wind up in political coffers are aware that this violates IRS law. Some of Barak’s American contributors may have reason to be nervous at this time.

Another factor that the Israeli police and public want to know concerns the involvement of the Clinton Administration. The Israeli police want to know who was paying the bills for Barak’s campaign advisor Tal Zilberstein, who is retained by Washington political strategists James Carville and Stanley Greenberg, the same team retained by Clinton. The Israel State Comptroller notes that Zilberstein was paid in foreign currency. From where? From private citizens? Or from funds traced to the Clinton Administration itself?

Stay tuned for an unprecedented Israeli police inquiry into the campaign of prime minister Ehud Barak in the Spring of 1999.

Pushing Towards a PA State

By

David Bedein

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February 1, 2000

This week, the Israeli government has been asked by the US state department and by the White House to dispatch representatives to talks that will take place somewhere near Washington, to meet with representatives of the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s administrative prodigy, known as the Palestinian Authority (The PA).

On the agenda: Establishing the rudiments of a Palestinian state, no later than February 13, 2000.

On the face of it, what could Israelis possible have to fear from a neighboring mini-state, whose size would be half of Rhode Island?

Yet some of the practical and topographical considerations of having a Palestinian state next door are not lost on people in Israel who already feel the conseqences of this nascent entity.

The establishment of a Palestinian Authority in 1994 was meant to test the implications of having an autonomous entity nearby. The consequences have been tested in many ways:

Israelis who have had their cars stolen and driven into the PA-controlled areas have been helpless to get their vehicles back or to sue anyone to get their cars back.

The PA has consistently refused to hand over or indict criminals who have taken refuge inside the PA.

The PA has provided a sanctuary for 31 Arabs accused of murdering Jews who have taken refuge inside the PA.

Contrary to all agreements, armed PA officers have been patrolling Jerusalem.

Instead of cracking down on the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror organizations, the PA has incorporated both groups inside the PA.

Instead of adopting a peace curriculum for the PA schools that would parelell the peace curriculum that has been running in Israeli schools for the past six years, the PA ministry of education has adopted a curriculum that prepares a new generation for a war to liberate all of Palestine.

Arafat’s official PA radio and PA TV continue their daily tirade against Zionism that calls for the Palestinian Arab population to continue a holy war of Jihad, while the Friday sermons in PA-controlled mosques blare out calls for obliteration of the Jewish state.

3.5 million Arab refugees, disnfranchised by the PA and confined by the UN to the squalor of tranist camps inside the PA and in neighoring Arab countries for more than fifty years under the internationally supported premise and promise of the “right of return” to the cities and villages that they left in 1948, now prepare themselves to go back to thsoe cities and villages, even if they are now occupied by Israeli cities and collective farms.

Palestinian Arab refugees evoke the recent precedent of Kosovo refugees who took back their homes and villages from Serbians who had lived there for more than forty years.

Israeli and western intelligence agencies report that The PA police force that was supposed to comprise a lightly armed police force of 9.000 has evolved into fourteen units of a Palestinian Liberation Army of 50,000, trained by American military advisors. Small bands of PLA troops could at any time conduct guerilla attacks into any part of Israel and simply melt into the Palestinian population.

All these factors of a “Palestinian state next door” are known to the population of Israel, yet not often discussed or reported in the media.

Israelis simply do not take Arab plans and ambitions very seriously, and most Israelis would prefer to get on with their lives after more than sixty three years of continuous war in the land of Israel.

The consensus of all major political parties in the Knesset is that if the economy of the Palestinian entity is strong, then the Palestinian people will have little reason to engage in hostilities against Israel.

Yet study after study show that humanitarian aid and economic assistance to the Palestinian Authority has been squandered and embezzled by an elite circle of people around Yassir Arafat, with little “trickle down” effect to the Palestnian Arab population who blame Israel for imposing Arafat’s regime on their people.

It would seem that Israel’s neighboring state-in-the-making is more like having Beirut and Teheran next door than the Providence of a Rhode Island.

PHRMG: Palestinian Authority Controls Jerusalem Newspaper

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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February 1, 2000

[Excerpt from The Palestinian Human Rights Monitor V.3, #5, November 1999
Published by The Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group]

Al-Quds [Jerusalem]
Al-Quds is the most widely distributed newspaper, read by 61.3% of the readers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (according to a poll organized by Jerusalem Media & Communications Center (JMCC) in August 1998). It was established in 1951 and was published under the name “Al-Jihad” until 1967 which is when it was joined by “Al-Difa’a” to give it its present name “Al-Quds”. Its owner and publisher is Mahmoud Abu-Zalaf. Its chief editor is his son, Waleed Abu-Zalaf.

Prior to the Intifada (uprising), the newspaper followed the line of Jordan, but after the Intifada there was an agreement between the administration of the newspaper and the PLO that the newspaper would follow only a Palestinian line and that the PLO would, in turn, support it financially.

After the coming of the PA, the placement of the censor’s red lines was no longer so clear: a dispute between the PA and al-Quds over the number of people attending one of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) rallies occurred and resulted in General Ghazi al-Jabali, head of the Palestinian Police, blocking the distribution of al-Quds in the Gaza Strip for four days. Following this occurrence, a close relationship was forged between the administrative editor of al-Quds and Colonel Jibreel al-Rujoub, Head of the Preventive Security in the West Bank, which resulted in daily contact between the two parties with a view to agreeing firstly on what should appear on the front page of each edition and secondly on the content of articles criticising the Authority or one of its institutions.

For the PA’s strategy to be executed perfectly and to avoid journalists wasting time, they are given instructions on how to write and edit articles and reports that are void of any critical analysis by the journalist himself. If a piece of news is deemed to be vital but criticizes the authority, it is published in an inconspicuous place within the paper and with a small heading. Thus the story in effect loses its importance. Moreover, when a piece mentions that a security organ has abused a citizen, the newspaper inevitably fails to give details of the name or age of the victim and fails to mention which security department has been responsible. If the matter involves criticism of high officials in the Authority, al-Quds does not publish anything on the matter until it has been dealt with by other papers. A journalist who works for al-Quds is on record as having said that “before publishing the report on corruption within the PA, I had to submit a draft copy of it: the newspaper did not publish it immediately. If it had done so, this would have constituted a precedent. After this episode, I stayed at home for a week not doing anything”.

At times the newspaper is asked to delay publication of a report dealing with an error committed by the PA until the latter straightens things out. After this has been done, the newspaper publishes a report both on the error as well as on its rectification. On other occasions a journalist from the paper is asked to conduct an interview with someone who is on good terms with the owner of the paper whilst the paper refuses to publish anything on individuals that are on bad terms with the owner.

Jane’s Defence Weekly: Israel Warns Against Syria Obtaining New Weapons

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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February 1, 2000

Israel’s military chiefs are urging their government to prevent Syria from obtaining US or Western aid that would allow Damascus to purchase strategic defence systems.

Israeli commanders are concerned that Syria, in the wake of any peace treaty with Israel, would obtain billions of dollars in US and Western aid that would allow Damascus to buy weapons systems that could significantly alter the military balance in the region.

“We are not threatening the Syrians,” Israel air force commander Maj Gen Eitan Ben-Eliahu told Jane’s Defence Weekly. “So, we don’t see them needing anything more than they already have – particularly regarding weapons that can leave their borders.” Gen Ben-Eliahu was referring to Syrian efforts to purchase the Almaz S-300 (NATO codename: SA-10 ‘Grumble’) air defence system from Moscow. Negotiations have proceeded for two years, hampered by Syria’s $11 billion debt to Russia and the insistence by Damascus on a long-term repayment plan.

Israeli commanders said the procurement of the S-300 would mark a major improvement in Syrian air defence and jeopardise Israeli deterrence. It would also mark the most important step in Syria’s two-year effort in bolstering its military.

Aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said Israel would not oppose US military aid to Syria. They said Syrian dependence on the USA could help ensure any peace treaty between Damascus and Jerusalem.

Military sources said they could agree to US or Western deliveries of weapons that do not represent a significant improvement over what is currently in Syria’s arsenal.

Israel’s military intelligence chief Maj Gen Amos Malka said Syria under President Hafez Assad has in some cases caught up or even exceeded Israel in some areas of military prowess. “If Assad asks his chief of staff tomorrow morning what is the army’s combat-readiness level, he will get an answer that the army is much more prepared than it was when he received it from the previous chief of staff two years ago,” Gen Malka told a seminar at Tel Aviv University’s Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies on 17 January.

The reference, Israeli military sources said, was to Syria’s anti-armour capability and electronic countermeasures. Gen Malka disputed a report by the Jaffee Centre’s annual military balance that dismissed a Syrian military threat.

“The Syrian Army is not in the best shape,” Gen Malka said. “Army-to-army the Israel Defence Force [IDF] stands out qualitatively over the Syrian Army and if war broke out between them the IDF would be victorious. But to jump to the extreme conclusion with significant ramifications that Syria doesn’t have any military option and that its army is collapsing is too far-reaching and dangerous.”

IDF chiefs are also urging Barak to ensure that Egypt, which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, will also be denied certain US weapons. The IDF wants Washington to pledge that it will continue to ban any sale of the Boeing F-15 Eagle fighter to Egypt.

Egypt already has more than 200 F-16s. It is regarded as having the best navy and second-best air force in the Middle East – largely because of 20 years of US arms sales and training.

IDF commanders have pointed to a US pledge to maintain Israel’s qualitative edge over its neighbours. “To maintain this edge, we should not have the F-15s sent to any other country except Israel,” said Gen Ben-Eliahu.

Signs of Iraqi Arms Buildup Bedevil U.S. Administration

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

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February 1, 2000

Washington, Jan. 31 — Satellite photographs and American intelligence reports have shown that Iraq has in the last year rebuilt military and industrial sites damaged by American and British air strikes in late 1998, officials say.

The recent intelligence findings have raised concerns among Defense Department and other officials in the Clinton administration that in the prolonged absence of international weapons inspectors, whose job would be to search those structures, President Saddam Hussein’s government has continued its pursuit of biological and chemical weapons.

Despite those concerns, the administration’s policy has been allowed to drift, leaving the United States unable to force Iraq to accept a resumption of inspections even after resolving an impasse at the United Nations Security Council.

Iraq’s refusal has now left the administration in a quandary over how to respond at a time when international support for its policy and for sanctions against Mr. Hussein is waning.

“There is concern in intelligence circles that he has begun to rebuild buildings that could enable him” to produce chemical or biological weapons, a senior administration official said. “He has had a lot of time to operate without inspections.”

Although the intelligence reports have not provided concrete evidence that Iraq is producing chemical or biological weapons, the officials said, the reports have raised the possibility of renewed military confrontation, because the administration has repeatedly warned that any effort by Iraq to produce the weapons would prompt new American air strikes.

The concern has given urgency to the new inspection program created last month by the Security Council. But for the administration, the latest Iraqi defiance has been met with frustration, uncertainty over how to proceed and even fatigue.

In his State of the Union address on Thursday, Mr. Clinton devoted exactly six words to Iraq. The American representative to the United Nations, Richard C. Holbrooke, a diplomat noted for his tenacity, barely involved himself in the Security Council’s negotiations over inspections, leaving them to his deputy, James B. Cunningham, who arrived in New York just last month.

Despite a policy of “containment,” punctuated by American-led strikes in 1993, 1996 and 1998, Mr. Hussein remains as much a thorn as he was when Mr. Clinton took office. And Iraq’s defiance comes in a year when any action by the administration would have political ramifications in the presidential campaign.

Nearly a year and a half after Iraq blocked the last team of United Nations inspectors, administration officials said that getting inspectors back into the country remained the best way to determine if Baghdad’s weapons programs were continuing.

Last week, after months of diplomatic wrangling, the Security Council agreed to nominate Hans Blix of Sweden to lead a new inspection team in Iraq, having rejected a candidate supported by the United States, Rolf Ekeus, also of Sweden.

Russia and France vetoed Mr. Ekeus’s nomination after consultations with Mr. Hussein’s government, diplomatic officials said.

But while Iraq has been less hostile toward Mr. Blix, Iraqi officials have said they will not accept any resumption of international weapons inspections under the terms of the latest Security Council resolution.

Even if Mr. Hussein eventually relents and allows Mr. Blix’s team to enter the country, it will take at least three or four months before inspectors can resume work inside Iraq. Administration officials expressed their concerns when asked to assess the state of Washington’s policy toward Iraq. Some officials defended the administration’s approach, but others, including Pentagon officials, criticized the policy out of concern that it has left the United States few viable options.

Thirteen months ago, the United States and Britain launched four nights of air and missile strikes to punish Mr. Hussein after he expelled the last team of weapons inspectors. At the time, senior commanders estimated that the operation had set back Iraq’s ability to produce chemical or biological weapons — and the missiles needed to launch them — by one to two years.

“We’re marching toward that point” now, a senior military officer said.

Pentagon and other officials declined to discuss the recent intelligence findings in detail, but they said Iraq had rebuilt many of the 100 installations damaged or destroyed in the American and British raids in December 1998.

Of those targets, 12 were missile factories or industrial sites that commanders said were involved in Iraq’s efforts to produce weapons of mass destruction. The officials said significant reconstruction had been seen at those sites, including Al Taji missile complex north of Baghdad.

In the wake of the diplomatic wrangling, administration officials defended their policy toward Iraq. They said they remained determined to contain Mr. Hussein militarily while maintaining the economic sanctions first imposed when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and while supporting Iraqi opposition groups.

Officials emphasized that a new American attack did not appear imminent. They said they wanted to see if the new inspection program would eventually get off the ground before taking any action that could further erode international support for the American stance toward Iraq.

But the officials said there remained three “red lines” that the United States would not let the Iraqis cross: a threat against a neighboring country like Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, an attack on the Kurdish minority in northern Iraq or a reconstitution of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons programs.

Critics of Washington’s handling of Iraq said the administration appeared to have no clear plan on how to force an end to Iraq’s defiance. “There is no adult supervision of our policy,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

And despite American efforts to unify Iraqi opposition groups, factions remain. The administration has provided only a small part of the $97 million that Congress authorized to support those bent on overthrowing Mr. Hussein’s government.

Also, international sanctions are fraying. To win Russian and French support for the new weapons inspection program, the United States and Britain agreed to offer Iraq an opportunity to end the sanctions. Under the new Security Council resolution, the United Nations will suspend sanctions if Iraq cooperates with the new inspectors.

But one reason for the continued Iraqi defiance may be that the sanctions are already leaking. Iraq is allowed to export $10 billion a year to buy food and other essential goods, and while the proceeds are closely monitored by the United Nations, the Iraqis have been able to divert some of the money, administration officials said.

Mr. Hussein’s government has also been able to earn millions of dollars in smuggling. Since August, Iraq has steadily increased illicit shipments of oil from the Shatt al Arab waterway, much of it flowing through an installation near the port of Basra that American warplanes attacked and damaged in 1998, the officials said.

Last month, Iraq’s illicit trade reached the highest level since the Gulf war. More than 130 ships, some of them Russian, left the port and skirted the Iranian coast, staying in Iran’s territorial waters to evade American ships trying to intercept them. “The Iranians are at least tacitly involved in this,” a senior administration official said.

In the same month, Navy warships boarded only 36 ships and seized only 4. According to American intelligence estimates, Iraq was able to smuggle out a record amount of 317,000 metric tons of oil, or more than 2.3 million barrels, in December alone. At today’s price of about $27 a barrel, the shipments were worth more than $62 million.

A recent intelligence report concluded that the smuggling was undermining the sanctions. Pentagon and other administration officials say they increasingly worry that the proceeds may be intended to finance weapons programs.

But another senior Administration official said the amounts of illicit profit were not enough to allow Mr. Hussein to produce nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. “What’s inside the buildings is much more expensive to put up than any walls and roofs,” the official said.

Transcript: Indyk Sees “Real Opportunity” For Separate Peace Accords

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

-

February 1, 2000

January 27, 2000

Martin Indyk, recently returned to Israel for his second tour as U.S. ambassador, told an Israeli television interviewer January 25 that he believes “that there is a real opportunity now on the Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian tracks to achieve, not one agreement, but three agreements this year.

The U.S. goal “is to work with the Government of Israel to try to achieve what is an ambitious agenda, but one which, President Clinton agrees with Prime Minister Barak, is achievable this year.”

[begin transcript]

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin S. Indyk’s Interview with Israel TV Channel One Senior Correspondent Ehud Yaari January 25, 2000

Mr Yaari: Welcome to Israel, Mr. Ambassador.

Ambassador Indyk (In Hebrew): Thank you very much.

Question: It’s quite unusual for an ambassador to return to the place he was serving in for a second round.

Ambassador Indyk: It feels quite unusual. It’s like Rip Van Winkle waking up out of the dream and coming back to the place that’s the same. Of course, it’s changed, but I am delighted to be back; my family is also excited to be back, and we are looking forward to working with Prime Minister Barak and the government and people of Israel in an intensive effort to try to achieve a real peace — a comprehensive peace and a secure peace for Israel — this year.

Question: One of the previous Prime Minister’s confidantes, Mr. David Bar-Ilan, is already attacking you publicly. I am asking you, was there any bad taste left last time when you left the job here to take up your position in Washington when Mr. Netanyahu was prime minister?

Ambassador Indyk: You know it’s in the nature of Israeli society that people can’t rest for long without attacking somebody, and I am a big target. I think that’s unimportant. I am the ambassador of the United States to Israel — that means to all of Israel. I certainly expect to have close working relations not only with the government but also with the opposition.

Question: Can Mr. Netanyahu expect an invitation to a dinner some time at the Ambassador’s residence?

Ambassador Indyk: Of course. I would expect to pay a courtesy call on him as I would on Prime Minister Shamir.

Question: If I may, Mr. Ambassador, I would like to switch to something that Syrian official sources were leaking recently. They were saying, through their mouth-peace, a Lebanese newspaper by the name of “Al-Safir” that the peace team of which you were a prominent member…

Ambassador Indyk: I am a prominent member.

Question: I stand corrected… that the peace team: you, Dennis Ross and the rest of them are pro-Likud. That you were unofficial members quote unquote of the Israeli delegation to Sheperdstown. Why would they attack you?

Ambassador Indyk: Well, I don’t think that’s serious. It’s in the nature of this business that I am or we are accused of being either pro-Likud or anti-Likud. In your two questions you have the two opposite positions. I think we have to do what we have to do, and that is to try to be honest brokers in a situation in which, of course, we have a close and strong relationship with Israel — of which the present Secretary and the peace team are proud — because we believe that that is the cornerstone for a comprehensive peace. It is impossible to achieve a real peace in which Israel has to take risks for peace and has to take painful decisions — it is impossible for Israel to do those kinds of things unless it has the solid, secure, strong backing of the United States. Some people see that as somehow that has an impact on our ability to play the role of honest broker. I say the exact opposite. Because we have a relationship, a close relationship, a strong relationship of trust with the Government and the people of Israel, it gives us the ability to play an effective role in the peace process.

Question: Were you surprised by the size of the Israeli request for a military package?

Ambassador Indyk: No. We have known for some time that when it comes to a deal involving the Golan, that Israel’s security requirements are going to be substantial. We are working hard on that request to refine it, to see how we can be responsive. But there is a basic underlying commitment that, if you remember, President Clinton made to Prime Minister Rabin in April of 1993. When then Prime Minister Rabin made his first visit to meet with the new President, President Clinton said: “Prime Minister Rabin, you have told me that you have a mandate to take calculated risks for peace, and I will tell you that my role is to minimize those risks.”

Question: Tomahawk missiles — is it a possibility? Tomahawk cruise missiles?

Ambassador Indyk: I am not going to get into details of the package we are looking at, at Israel’s request. We obviously owe an answer to the Government of Israel and we will be talking to them about all of these things before we talk about them in public. Of course, we have a responsibility to work with the Congress to make sure that the Congress will be supportive of this also. So, there are a lot of steps that have to be taken before we can answer questions like that.

Question: Are you concerned because the Syrian technical team did not show up in Washington as expected?

Ambassador Indyk: No. I think that this is a timing or a scheduling issue and, as we understand it, we want the Israeli team to come first and the Syrian team will follow.

Question: Finally, Mr. Ambassador, do you think it’s “doable?” That is: getting a framework with the Palestinians, getting out of Lebanon in an agreement and clinching a deal with Syria in the span of the few next months?

Ambassador Indyk: Well, as I said at the outset, our intention is to achieve a comprehensive peace in the coming year by working with the Government of Israel to do that. Whether it’s achievable in the exact timetable as laid out now is not clear. But I certainly believe that there is a real opportunity now on the Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian tracks to achieve not one agreement, but three agreements this year. That is the intention of Prime Minister Barak, and our intention — President Clinton, Secretary Albright and myself as their representative here in Israel — is to work with the Government of Israel to try to achieve what is an ambitious agenda but one which, President Clinton agrees with Prime Minister Barak, is achievable this year.

Question: Competitive simultaneity between the tracks — is it helpful or is it damaging?

Ambassador Indyk: We have a word in English “symbiosis,” which means that there is an interaction between the two, which produces a positive outcome. I have always felt that if it’s possible to have all the tracks moving simultaneously, what develops out of that is that movement on one track helps to produce movement on another track. So, it has always been our objective to have all the tracks moving. That’s why the Secretary of State is going to Moscow next week to re-launch the multilaterals at a ministerial level, because that track also can help to grease the skids on the other two tracks. So, we really would like to see all the tracks moving. It’s my understanding that that’s Prime Minister’s Barak’s intention as well.

Mr Yaari: Thank you very much, Mr. Ambassador.

[end transcript]

An Insider’s Report From the Shepherdstown Talks

By

David Bedein

-

January 18, 2000

Shepherdstown, W. Va — It is only a few hundred meters from the improvised press center in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, where this writer spent the better part of a week, to the conference center where US officials have been trying to help Syria and Israel to broker a “peace” between the warring nations. There is a wide gap between what “peace” means to the parties. That includes the gap between what “peace” means to Israel and to the US.

At first glance, it would seem that the US and Israel express common concerns about the “peace process”. They even use the same terms and definitions on the elements of an accord: “cessation of hostilities”, “concern for human rights”, and “facilitating an atmosphere for peace and mutual recognition”. Yet what these platitudes mean to Israelis and to Americans is another and more complex matter.

For example, there are 35,000 Syrian troops in Southern Lebanon who provide protection for Lebanese Hizbollah terrorists, from their strongholds which regularly shell civilian targets in Israel.

Israel has long demanded that Syria close down this organization whose openly avowed purpose is the “liberation” of Jerusalem and all of Palestine – that is, the destruction of Israel. Israel also demands that Syria disarm and disband ten renegade PLO groups that operate in Damascus, that even the US state department places on the list of terror organizations.

At Shepherdstown, when the writer asked US state department spokesman, James Rubin if the US would support these demands, Rubin replied that the Syrians should merely “restrain” these terrorist bands. When the writer presented Rubin with the fact that the ten PLO terror factions aver that they will continue their activities, the state department spokesman responded with a prediction that the terrorists would transform themselves into non-violent political organizations and abandon the path of terror. Rubin could offer no evidence to support this optimism.

Another issue of passionate concern to Israelis is the cruel fate of three Israeli soldiers, one of whom is an American citizen, who were taken into captivity in Syria in 1982. Since that time, Syria has refused any information about them, to their families or to the Red Cross. At Shepherdstown, I asked the US state department spokesman whether the US would support Israel’s demand for the immediate release of these three men. His response was limited to expressing hope that the Syrians would be “helpful” about the matter.

For many years, international human rights organizations have been insisting that Syria should be held accountable for the crimes against humanity committed by its despotic regime. Even during a week of peace talks, President Assad ordered the arrest of hundreds of people whom he identified as his opposition, and ordered at least one opposition leader to be executed.

At Shepherdstown, I raised this subject with the US state department spokesman, asking whether the American government would insist on including the matter of human rights and civil liberties reform on the agenda of the current peace talks. He would say no more than to respond that the US supports human rights and civil liberties everywhere, including in Syria. He ignored my specific question which was whether human rights and civil liberties would be brought up for discussion in one of the working groups that have been established to implement the accords.

That same state department spokesman, James Rubin, was also asked about the negative attitudes toward the peace process in the Syrian news media, which remains under the total control of the Syrian government. I asked if the US would request the Syrian government to issue a call for peace in the Arabic language to the Syrian people.

Rubin professed he was not aware of any problem in the Syrian media. At a later press conference that same spokesman suggested that there were some expressions of peaceful intent in the Syrian Arabic media.

Since our news agency monitors the Syrian media and since we have not encountered any such conveyance of peace in the Syrian Arabic media, I asked the spokesman at the next press conference if he could provide any specific examples of calls for peace and reconciliation in the Syrian Arabic media. He could not think of any, nor provide any examples.

It thus appears that while officials of the US and Israel use the same phrases to define their positions, they do not necessarily use them with the same meanings. Nor can it be assumed that policy statements or even commitments can be taken at face-value.

For example, following the Wye Accords in October, 1998, the US government adopted an official policy that it demands that Arafat’s Palestinian Authority cease and desist from its incitement to terrorism and war against Israel along with assorted expressions of anti-semitism in Arafat’s controlled media and schools. The US has not, however, shown more than lip service to the fact that the PA fails to meet any such demand.

It goes without saying that the US has yet to make any such demands on Syria.

Hovering over the discussions in Shepherdstown was talk of ironclad security guarantees that the US would provide to Israel to assure it of its security, if Israel would indeed withdraw its army bases and civilian communities from the Golan Heights which tower over Israel’s Upper Galilee region. Yet questions about these American guarantees were viewed as premature by the state department spokesman.

In the past, the US offered iron-clad security guarantees to Israel following US-brokered Israeli withdrawals that were simply ignored.

In 1957, the US policy to force Israel out of the Sinai was accompanied by promises of the right of free passage for Israel through the Suez Canal and the Straits of Tiran, just south of Elat.

Yet in 1967, when Egyptian President Nasser blockaded the straits of Tiran, US President Johnson was hard pressed to even locate the guarantees from President Eisenhower, let alone honor them.

In 1970, when the US president Nixon brokered the Rogers plan that mandated Israeli withdrawal from the Suez Canal, the Egyptian army immediately moved its troops and missiles to an attack position, in violation of the Rogers plan. Nixon did nothing.

Three years later, the Egyptian army attacked Israel from convenient forward positions in what became known as the Yom Kippur War.

Then in 1975, the US forced Israel to cede land and oil fields to a still belligerent Egypt. President Ford signed a letter of guarantee with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin which assured Israel that the American government would never ask Israel to relinquish the Golan Heights, since the US defined the Golan Heights as vital to Israeli security. With that letter, Rabin and his successor, Prime Minister Menachem Begin, were able to persuade the Israeli public that any territorial concessions to Egypt would not be a precedent to cede the Golan to Syria.

The interests of a great power may not always coincide with the interests of a smaller nation.

Marvin and Bernard Kalb, in their seminal book, “Kissinger”, written in 1976, report that in 1968 the new Israeli ambassador and recently retired Israeli commander in chief, Yitzhak Rabin, accompanied US presidential candidate Richard Nixon to view the Golan Heights, recently captured from the Syrians.

Peering down from Syrian gun positions that were trained on the farmers in Israel’s Hula Valley, Nixon observed that, “If I were an Israeli, I would never give up the Golan”. Rabin smiled from ear to ear. “Mr. Rabin, what I said was that ‘if I was an Israeli’. I am not an Israeli”.

It would be reckless indeed to expect that the US and Israel would ever maintain the same foreign policy.

That became clear this week at Shepherdstown.

Eye on Syria: Timely Report on Developments

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

-

January 4, 2000

Welcome to Eye on Syria, a timely report on developments in Syria as well as a review of pertinent articles in the Syrian official press as well as what is written about Syria. The service is meant to illuminate Westerners to one of the most closed societies in the world. The report is based on facts and analysis culled from numerous Syrian and Arab newspapers as well as diplomatic sources by correspondents in Jerusalem, London and Cairo.

First, a quick look at the Syrian media. Syrian newspapers, radio and television are all owned and controlled by the regime. Nothing appears in the media without the approval of authorities. Broadcasters are given text to read and have no room to improvise.

Syria has one radio station, television station and news service. They are leaden and dull but they faithfully reflect propaganda from Damascus. Slogans are repeated ad nauseum in a reflection of the highly ideological regime. We will spare subscribers of the rhetoric and, instead, give the main points of the media.

There are four Syrian dailies and they are remarkably similar. Al Baath is the newspaper of the ruling Baath Party. It focuses on so-called popular issues, largely the activities of the party around the country. Al Thawra is the ideological organ of the Syrian regime. Tishrin is the government daily. The Syrian Times is the English-language daily.

Quote of the week:

“Our concern for the Golan shouldn’t make us oblivious of the fact that Palestine is the center of the Arab Israeli conflict. Our rights as Muslims and Arabs in Palestine are sacred and inalienable which no body can compromise.”

— Muslim Brotherhood in Syria announces its opposition to any peace agreement with Israel.

Today in Syria

Assad said expected to last no more than year
Syria launches crackdown on islamic militants
U.S. urges lebanese not to ask for syrian withdrawal
U.S., Syrian contacts to begin next month
Assad, Barak plan to meet in Geneva
Israel doesn’t expect framework accord next month
Israel, Syria to discuss early warning stations
Syria rejects Barak proposal on accord
Israeli spiritual leader wants to visit Syria
Iraq, Syria plan to renew diplomatic relations

Assad Said Expected to Last No More Than Year

The health of Syrian President Hafez Assad is said to be increasingly deteriorating and he is not expected to function for more than another year, sources close to the regime said.

The sources, who have excellent contacts with leading members of the Syrian government, said Assad is suffering from a range of diseases that has increasingly limited his ability to function. This includes heart ailment and diabetes.

As a result, the 69-year-old president works no more than two hours a day. Often, the sources said, Assad does not do any work and decisions and discussions are delayed.

The sources said Assad’s energies are directed toward ensuring that his son, Bashar, becomes the next president of Syria. It is this goal, they said, that drives him on. But the sources said the senior Assad continues to have difficulties in completing the process.

Bashar has not been approved for a leadership post in the Baath Party, the sources said, and family infighting has prolonged delays. The sources said should the president die soon, a fight over succession will erupt.

The 34-year-old Bashar has been delayed in plans to travel to Teheran to discuss the Israeli-Syrian peace talks, the sources said. They said Bashar was to have explained to leaders in Teheran the reason for the negotiations and the prospect of a peace treaty.

One source of delay, the sources said, is that the president took time to draft a letter for Iranian leaders regarding the talks between Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The letter is to be delivered before the next round of negotiations on Jan. 3.

A-Shaara on Dec. 30 left for Cairo to brief Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on the forthcoming talks. Arab diplomatic sources said Egypt will press Syria to coordinate with the Palestinians.

Sources said Iran is angry over the resumption of Israeli-Syrian talks and has quietly threatened to sever relations with Damascus if a peace treaty is signed. The sources said Iran has stressed to Syria that it does not object to an agreement for the return of the Golan Heights but opposes normalization of ties with Israel.

Iran has also warned Syria not to harm the Lebanese Shi’ite Hizbullah militia. The sources said Iran has stressed that Hizbullah has a huge constituency and is the leader of the resistance against Israel’s troop presence in south Lebanon.

Syria Launches Crackdown on Islamic Militants

Syria has launched a crackdown on Islamic militants in the wake of its criticism of President Hafez Assad’s decision to resume negotiations with Israel.

Diplomatic sources said Syrian authorities have arrested scores of members of the Moslem Brotherhood over the last week. They said the Brotherhood issued a leaflet that criticized the talks meant to lead to a peace treaty.

The Brotherhood called the prospect of a peace treaty a “capitulation a sell-out of Arab and Muslim rights in Palestine.”

“It must be remembered that the Palestinian question with all its histor ical, geographic, political, and human dimensions, is the essence of the conflict in the Middle East,” the communique, faxed to news agencies, said. “Our concern for the Golan shouldn’t make us oblivious of the fact that Palestine is the center of the Arab Israeli conflict. Our rights as Muslims and Arabs in Palestine are sacred and inalienable which no body can compromise.”

The statement was faxed by Syrian Islamic representatives based in London in what was regarded as the first unauthorized criticism of Syrian-Israeli negotiations. Earlier, the head of the Syrian Writers Association criticized the resumption of talks in what was regarded as a move authorized by Assad.

The Brotherhood said any agreement concluded between Syria and Israel would be “illegitimate since it would go against the collective will of the Syrian people.”

The communique said the Golan Heights was “no more than a step towards the liberation of Palestine.”

The leaflet came in the wake of the killing of a leading Brotherhood member. Sheik Mohammed Amin Yakan, 62, was assassinated on Dec. 16 as he was driven to Tarhin village near Aleppo. Syrian sources said the sheik was killed by gunmen who worked for a family that sought to release land allocated for construction of a government center.

The Brotherhood placed doubts on Syrian claims that Yakan was killed in a criminal dispute. Yakan was involved in a mediation effort between Syria and the Brotherhood in 1997.

U.S. Urges Lebanese Not to Ask for Syrian Withdrawal

The United States is said to have appealed to prominent Lebanese politicians and opinion-makers to allow Syrian troops to remain in Lebanon.

Lebanese sources said U.S. diplomats have urged the Lebanese not to urge a Syrian withdrawal from their country after Israel pulls its troops out from the south. The sources said a similar message was voiced by U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, David Satterfield.

“Several Christian personalities have received clear messages from U.S. diplomats ‘warning’ them not to ask for the withdrawal of the Syrian army from Lebanon after the withdrawal of the Israeli army from south Lebanon,” the Beirut-based Al Mustaqbal daily reported on Dec. 22. “U.S. ambassador David Satterfield diplomatically ‘warned’ these personalities not to count on an Israeli request for a Syrian withdrawal.”

Syrian President Hafez Assad phoned Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and discussed the next round of Syrian negotiations with Israel on Jan. 3. The telephone call came amid Lebanese concerns that Beirut would end up with the short end of the stick in any negotiations with Israel.

Arab diplomatic sources said the United States has quietly assured Syria that it would not press for a withdrawal of its 35,000 troops from Lebanon after an Israeli pullback. The sources said the Clinton administration and Israel have concluded that Syrian troops are required to maintain stability in both Damascus and Beirut.

About one million Syrians work in Lebanon, a work force that the sources said maintains the Syrian economy. All Lebanese government contracts must ensure Syrian participation, the sources said.

The sources said that U.S. diplomats believe that the Muslims and Shi’ites in Lebanon — who make up the majority — will not resist continued Syrian occupation of their country. The Christians, however, might voice protest and urge the U.S. Congress to link Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon to any future U.S. aid.

U.S., Syrian Contacts to Begin Next Month

Efforts to improve relations between Syria and the United States are expected to begin next month, Arab diplomatic sources said.

The sources said the effort will focus on ways to remove Syria from the State Department list of terrorist nations. The status prevents Syria from obtaining most types of civilian and all military aid.

The Clinton administration, the sources said, would seek to change the image of Syria in the eyes of Congress and U.S. public opinion. The efforts, the diplomatic sources said, would begin during the next round of talks, scheduled in Virginia on Jan. 3. They said U.S. and Syrian officials, headed by Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara, would hold talks between negotiations with Israel.

The negotiations would begin with another public ceremony, the sources said. This time, they said, U.S. officials will press A-Shaara to shake hands with Prime Minister Ehud Barak in front of television cameras.

After the negotiations, the sources said, the first of three U.S. congressional delegations would arrive in Syria. The delegations would explore the prospect of approving any White House proposal for economic aid to Damascus after an Israeli-Syrian peace treaty.

Senior U.S. officials have stressed that Damascus will require billions of dollars in Western aid after a peace treaty. But they envision a U.S. effort to focus on obtaining Arab and European aid rather than having Washington shoulder the commitment alone.

On Dec. 29, EU envoy Miguel Moratinos told Syrian leaders in Damascus that Brussels would be active in Middle East peace negotiations. He said the EU would also offer help to achieve a peace treaty and ensure its implementation.

Assad, Barak Plan to Meet in Geneva

The United States is trying to arrange a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Syrian President Hafez Assad at the end of January.

Arab diplomatic sources and newspapers said U.S. President Clinton has sent messages to Assad and Barak and has obtained what they termed a promising response from Assad. Barak has often expressed his wish to meet Assad.

The U.S. plan, the sources said, is for Clinton to meet the two Middle East leaders in Geneva in mid- or late-January after the next round of Israeli-Syrian negotiations scheduled on Jan. 3 in Virginia. The sources said Assad has linked any meeting with Assad to the success of the talks.

On Dec. 31, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi daily reported that Assad has agreed in principle to meet Barak if progress is reported in the forthcoming negotiations in Virginia.

The sources said Syria will demand an Israeli commitment for a withdrawal from the entire Golan Heights. Damascus has rejected an Israeli proposal for a “core agreement” that would contain a vague formula for Israeli withdrawal. The sources said Syria is insisting that the first issue on the agenda is an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

Israeli sources acknowledged that Assad has been approached by the United States and the European Union regarding a meeting with Barak. Assad has told foreign guests that such a meeting could take place when an agreement is reached between Israel and Syria.

The negotiations will be led by Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk A-Shaara and Israel’s Barak. On Dec. 30, A-Shaara held talks with Egyptian leaders on Israeli-Syrian peace talks as well as coordination with the Palestinians. The foreign minister relayed a message from Assad to Mubarak.

“[Barak’s] seriousness must be put to the test so we can be assured that the Israelis desire peace as we do,” A-Shaara said after talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. “In the new round, we will put Barak’s seriousness to the test, because he showed seriousness in the first round. This seriousness must be put to the test so we can be assured that the Israelis desire peace as we do. The settlements are illegal, whether they are built on the Golan, in the West Bank or any other area of the occupied Arab territories.

Meanwhile, Assad’s son might be invited by Clinton, Arab diplomatic source said.

Israel Doesn’t Expect Framework Accord Next Month

Israel has reduced expectations stemming from next week’s negotiations with Syria.

Israeli officials said they do not expect both countries to agree on a “core agreement” that would guide negotiations toward a peace settlement. They cited Syrian opposition to such an accord.

The talks will begin on Jan. 3 in a secluded site in Virginia and continue for at least 12 days, the officials said. They said the negotiations will continue through the Muslim holiday of Id al-Fitr, when Arab diplomacy comes to a halt.

The officials said Israel will be pressed to issue a commitment for withdrawal from the entire Golan Heights to the June 4, 1967 border. They said Israel would seek to delay such a commitment.

For its part, Israel will demand Syrian goodwill gestures. The gestures, the officials said, do not include a cessation of violence in south Lebanon, which has little chance of being obtained in formal negotiations.

Instead, the officials said, Israel will ask for the return of the remains of executed Israeli spy Eli Cohen and information on the whereabouts of Israeli soldiers missing in Lebanon.

Israel, Syria to Discuss Early Warning Stations

In negotiations next month, Israel and Syria have agreed to discuss three demilitarized zones, early-warning stations and the deployment of U.S. troops as part of an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

The establishment of early-warning stations is slated to be part of a draft of a declaration of principles to be negotiated between the two countries in the next round of talks, scheduled for Jan. 3 in Virginia. The draft will include all the elements of a peace treaty, including Golan withdrawal, normalization, counterterrorism and security arrangements.

The Jordanian daily Al Aswaq said the document was initiated by European Union envoy Miguel Moratinos. The draft was then modified by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and assistant secretary Martin Indyk to become a basis for resuming the negotiations.

“Early warning stations should be erected to prevent surprise attacks,” the newspaper quoted the elements of the draft document as saying. “The two sides discuss the idea of having United Nations forces with an American nucleus to supervise the agreement and ensure its implementation.”

Syrian newspapers have called on Israel to be “serious” in the forthcoming round of talks. The call came as the ruling Baath Party has launched meetings around the country to discuss the prospects of a peace treaty with Israel.

The aim, Syrian sources, is to convene the first national convention of the Baath Party since 1985. At that meeting, Syrian President Hafez Assad is expected to push for his son Bashar to be given a leading role in the party and leadership.

The draft, the Jordanian newspaper said on Dec. 21, does not specifically call for full withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Instead, it calls for Israel to withdraw from the area “according to the Madrid conference’s terms of references as an implementation of United Nations resolutions 242 and 338.

Those two UN resolutions as well as UN resolution 425 should be implemented regarding the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. No timetable is mentioned.

The draft stipulated that security arrangements are to be made on the grounds of reciprocated equality with the objective of strengthening stability and ensuring security interests for the two sides. “The security arrangements are in compliance with the principles of sovereignty and regional unity,” the newspaper said, “but under the condition that the Lebanese dimension will be taken into account. These security arrangements are also to take into consideration the nature of the region, the two sides’ positions in the military and political arenas, and the consequences of redeployment on military capabilities.”

Israel has demanded a demilitarization of the entire Golan as well as an area that extends close to Damascus. Syria has six divisions from the area of Golan to Damascus, a distance of 60 kilometers.

In contrast, Syria has demanded that any arrangements be symmetrical and not infringe on that country’s sovereignty.

The draft document calls for three zones in an effort to minimize a surprise military attack. The zone closest to the Israeli border would be free of all weapons. The second zone would have restrictions on weapons and troops. The third zone would have allow the deployment of unspecified defensive weapons.

The draft is vague on the issue of water. Israel has refused to cede rights to the Sea of Galilee, the northeastern portion of which is claimed by Syria. The two countries are asked to deal with the issues in accordance

with international law “taking into account Syria’s rights and Israel’s requirements of waters.”

Regarding future relations between Israel and Syria, the draft calls “peaceful relations between the two sides includes diplomatic, economic and cultural relations with the objective of opening the way for promoting peace. Practical measures will be taken to build confidence in the political, economic and social areas, and the two sides will back and participate in the framework of regional cooperation and the multilateral tracks.”

The two countries are also being asked to pledge not to harbor groups that threaten the other side.

Syria Rejects Barak Proposal on Accord

Syria has rejected an Israeli proposal to reach a core agreement during the next round of negotiations, an Arab newspaper has reported.

The London-based Al Hayat daily on Dec. 27 quoted Syrian sources as saying that the proposal by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak for a framework accord that would include all elements of a peace treaty between Israel and Syria would be a substitute for the “substantive bases” of issues concluded by both countries in previous negotiations.

The sources did not explain. But the reference appeared to be that of Syrian insistence that Israel had agreed to a withdrawal from the entire Golan Heights.

Barak has urged Syria and the United States to conclude a “core agreement” with Damascus that would be more specific than a declaration of principles and serve as a guide for a peace treaty. But the prime minister has stressed that he wants to first discuss security arrangements and water before he commits to any withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

Syrian newspapers, meanwhile, renewed their call for an Israeli withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 lines. The call referred to the the line that existed before the Six-Day Arab-Israeli war in which Israel captured the Golan Heights.

Earlier, Israeli sources said Barak would propose a withdrawal to the 1923 line agreed by France and Britain. That line is farther east than that of the 1967 boundary demanded by Syria.

Israeli Spiritual Leader Wants to Visit Syria

A leading Israeli rabbi and patron of the third largest party in the country wants to visit Damascus and meet with Syrian officials before he issues a ruling of whether to withdraw from the Golan Heights.

Diplomatic sources said contacts have been held through Arab and European officials to arrange the visit of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef to Damascus. The rabbi is the spiritual leader of the Shas Party, with 17 seats in the Knesset.

The sources said the rabbi’s support for a Golan withdrawal has been sought by the European Union. EU peace envoy Miguel Moratinos has met with the rabbi and his aides in attempt to win support for a Golan Heights withdrawal in any referendum held in Israel.

The London-based Al Hayat daily said Syrian leaders are considering extending an invitation to the rabbi. The newspaper quoted sources in Damascus as saying the the invitation could come from Syria’s mufti, Sheik Ahmed Kiftaro or from the the chairman of Syria’s tiny Jewish community.

The newspaper said Knesset Abdul Wahab Darhoushe has relayed the rabbi’s desire to visit Syria to leaders in Damascus. The rabbi is regarded as spiritual leader to Jews of North African descent, which make up the majority of Jews in Israel.

So far, Damascus has refused to welcome any Israeli Jewish figure. Several Arab parliamentarians have become regular visitors to Syria.

Iraq, Syria Plan to Renew Diplomatic Relations

After 19 years of tension, Iraq and Syria plan to resume diplomatic relations.

Iraqi newspapers and officials said both countries have reached agreement on the resumption of full ties. They said the first step would be to open interest sections.

Syrian officials acknowledged that both countries are interested in resuming ties but said little progress has been reported in bilateral negotiations.

In 1980, Iraq severed ties with Syria after Damascus sided with Iran during its war with Baghdad. A decade later, Syria joined the U.S.-led coalition against Baghdad that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.

“An agreement has been recently reached to open two interest sections in each others’ country,” Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed Sahaf said.

So far, Algeria represents the interests of both Iraq and Syria.

Neither Sahaf nor other Iraqi officials would offer a timetable for the resumption of full diplomatic relations. So far, the two countries have quietly renewed trade. Since 1996, Syria sold $150 million of food and medicine to Iraq and Syrian companies have opened branches in Baghdad.

In 1998, Sahaf visited Syria and met Syrian President Hafez Assad.

A Daughter’s Plea

By

Center for Near East Policy Research

-

January 4, 2000

Sara’s mother was murdered with 3 other women who were slain at a bus stop in Jerusalem in March, 1991.

A few months ago, I opened the daily Yediot Aharonot Israeli newspaper and I was stunned to read a headline article written by Nahum Barnea and Shimon Shiffer, both of whom are known as credible journalists, in which they wrote that in any permanent agreement with the Palestinian Authority, killers with blood on their hands will be freed by Barak. Next to their article were pictures of six Palestinian killers that the Palestinian Authority demands their release.

One of the pictures that appears there is our killer, the killer of my mother, Mustafa Abu Jallala.

At the moment that I saw that picture I relived the murder.

My mother, a small and simple woman stood at the bus stop waiting for a bus that would take her home from another day of work and suddenly, a monstrous man of six foot appeared out of nowhere flailing a long knife. He killed her and all of our family. A full life was taken in one moment, the life of a simple family was changed from one extreme to another and will never be the same from what it was before the murder. Whenever I feel the pain of the murder, and the sorrow for the loss of my mother, I imagine him, the murderer. Getting off a bus with the other freed murderers, with great satisfaction and with victory on his face, holding up the V sign with his hand, saying, I’m victorious, I murdered, I was freed and now I can even do it again and become a leader of my people.

And I ask you, I ask my people, and I ask our Prime Minister, how are we supposed to feel when the value of justice slips from our hands? How are we as a family to feel when our minimal human rights were taken by a murderer, who instead of rotting in prison to his last day, might in fact be freed very soon. We hear every day about human rights that we all agree are a very important principle in a just society, but I ask where exactly is the right of a murder victim, of the victim of a person who was precious to us who is now buried deep in the ground. Where are the victim’s rights when the murderer is allowed to go free?

Where are the rights of us as a bereaved family, whose life after the murder has anyway become difficult? Where are our rights when the murderer of our mother is freed?

Ever since the article in Yediot appeared, we have witnessed 150 prisoners freed, amongst them people with the blood of the wounded on their hands, (as if they did not intend to kill) and also amongst them, those who murdered Arabs who cooperated with Israel. (As if there is any difference between human blood).

Last week we were witness to the freeing of another 26 prisoners, amongst them was the murderer of a taxi driver, Yehezkel Mizrachi. My heart and the heart of all my family go out to his grieving family. We are slowly coming to the realization that this is about to happen to us, and this must never happen.

I feel a moral obligation in memory of my mother to carry out this fight, My mother did not have the opportunity to defend herself. As I think of my mother, I cannot sit idly and not fight this basic injustice.

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Transcript: Indyk Sees “Real Opportunity” For Separate Peace Accords

An Insider’s Report From the Shepherdstown Talks

Eye on Syria: Timely Report on Developments

A Daughter’s Plea

Column from the Director