The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies asserted that Iran could erupt in war against Israel from either Lebanon or Syria. In a report, the center said the Iranian war could begin with an attack on Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, also known as ISIS and already deployed in Syria’s Golan Heights.
“The upshot then of an ISIS takeover in Syria to Israeli security interests is not so much the ISIS threat per se, but rather the Iranian reaction to the takeover, and the threat such a reaction would pose to Israel,” the report, titled “The ISIS Challenge in Syria Implications for Israeli Security,” said.
Senior fellow Hillel Frisch outlined a range of scenarios of an ISIL advance and its repercussions for Teheran. Frisch said Israel must stress that it would block Iranian or Hizbullah weapons convoys from Syria to Lebanon.
“Establish clear red lines, the most important of which is the prohibition of the transfer of advanced missile launchers and rockets through both seaports and airports in Lebanon and the Alawite state — if not overrun by ISIS,” the report said. “Israel must develop the intelligence capabilities to monitor these facilities, if it has not already done so.”
The report said Israel must deter Iranian attacks from Lebanon and Syria. Frisch said Israel’s potential targets should include Beirut International Airport.
“Clearly signal to Iran that infringement of these red lines will result in the partial or complete destruction of the installations in question,” the report said. “Regarding Beirut International Airport, Israel should adopt a gradually escalating response. Israel should also claim the right to interdict shipment of such supplies by sea. This right to interdiction would obviously include Gaza.”
One Israeli redline was Iranian operations in southern Lebanon. At the same time, the report said, Israel must stress that it would remain neutral in any Iranian confrontation with ISIL, except for the Golan Heights.
“Israel’s chief security concern is a complete takeover of Lebanon by Iran, undertaken with the object of containing an ISIS advance in Syria,” the report said.